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January 14th, 2009 02:29 PM #1
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January 14th, 2009 02:29 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
(3) Duke (14-1, 8-6 ATS) at Georgia Tech (9-6, 4-7 ATS)
Duke guns for its seventh consecutive victory, including its second on the road to start the ACC season, when it heads to Atlanta for a matchup with the Yellow Jackets.
The Blue Devils overcame a sluggish first half at Florida State on Saturday – they led just 19-15 at the half – then turned it on over the final 20 minutes, rolling to a 66-58 victory. However, despite a 41-11 spurt to start the second half, Duke let off the gas down the stretch and failed to cover as a 10-point road chalk, its second consecutive non-cover after a 5-1 ATS run.
Georgia Tech has alternated wins and losses in its last five games, including its first three ACC contests. On Saturday, the Yellow Jackets went to Maryland and blew a first-half lead, falling 68-61. However, they got the cash as an eight-point road underdog to halt a five-game ATS slide.
Duke has won three straight meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), with the contests decided by 9, 13 and 12 points. The two double-digit wins came last year, with the Blue Devils prevailing 71-58 at home, but falling short as a 15½-point favorite, and 82-70 as an 11½-point chalk in the ACC tournament. The home team is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in the last three regular-season battles, including Georgia Tech’s 74-63 win as a 3½-point favorite in the most recent clash in Atlanta two years ago.
Additionally, Duke is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings in this rivarly and 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to Atlanta. Lastly, the favorite has cashed in 14 of the last 18 head-to-head matchups.
Duke ranks 15th in the nation in scoring (81.5 ppg) and 39th in field-goal shooting (47.4 percent), and it is allowing just 60.5 ppg on 38.7 percent shooting. Of the team’s 14 wins, 12 have been by double digits. Meanwhile, although the Yellow Jackets are averaging 74.1 points per game for the season (45.3 percent), they’ve scored 67 or fewer in six of their last 10 games, including four of their last six at home.
In addition to failing to cash in its last two outings, the Blue Devils are mired in ATS funks of 3-8-1 in league play and 5-12-1 on Wednesday. Georgia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six on Wednesday, but 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. Also, Saturday’s spread-cover at Maryland ended the Yellow Jackets’ 0-3 ATS funk as an underdog.
The under is 8-0 in the last eight Duke-Georgia Tech showdowns and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Atlanta. Also, for Duke, the under is on runs of 17-5 overall (4-0 last four), 6-0 in ACC play and 4-0 on Wednesday, while the Yellow Jackets have stayed under the total in five of their last seven overall and eight straight against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the over is 13-6 in Georgia Tech’s last 19 ACC games and 6-1 in its last seven on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
(8) Syracuse (16-1, 7-6 ATS) at (13) Georgetown (11-3, 5-5 ATS)
The loaded Big East features yet another matchup of Top 15 schools, this time with Syracuse going south to the nation’s capital for a clash with Georgetown at the Verizon Center.
The Orange ran their winning streak to eight in a row with Saturday’s 82-66 rout of Rutgers as a seven-point road favorite. Syracuse is off to a 3-0 start in Big East action (2-1 ATS), with two of the wins coming on the road (1-1 ATS). In fact, Jim Boeheim’s squad is a perfect 5-0 (4-1 ATS) away from the Carrier Dome, with wins over Florida, Kansas, Memphis and South Florida, in addition to the victory at Rutgers.
The Hoyas halted a two-game slide with Saturday’s hard-fought 82-75 win over Providence, but they came up short as an 11½-point home favorite for their third consecutive ATS setback, all in Big East play. The last time Georgetown covered a spread was on Dec. 29, when it opened the Big East season with an impressive 74-63 upset at then-No. 2 UConn as a 6½-point underdog.
Syracuse is on a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry – all as an underdog – and it has won eight of the last 10 meetings since 2003, both SU and ATS. Last year, the Orange took the Hoyas to overtime in Washington, D.C., losing 64-62 as a 12-point ‘dog, then rolled to a 77-70 home win as a three-point pup a month later. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last four visits to Georgetown.
The Orange average 81.1 ppg on 50.3 percent shooting, they’ve scored more than 70 in all but two contests and they’ve put up 82 or more 10 times. Tonight, they run up against a Georgetown defense that’s giving up just 59.8 ppg overall (36.7 percent) and 57 ppg at home (35 percent). However, that Hoyas’ D has been shaky lately, allowing 70, 73 and 75 points in the last three after holding nine of their first 11 foes to less than 70 points.
In addition to cashing in four of its five roadies this season, Syracuse is riding ATS hot streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2 in Big East play and 4-1 against winning teams, but the Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last seven on Wednesday. The Hoyas are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 on Wednesday, but they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five Big East contests going back to last season.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Georgetown overall, 50-23 for Georgetown at home, 39-18 for Georgetown in Big East play, 38-18-1 for Georgetown after a non-cover, 5-0 for Georgetown on Wednesday, 9-3 for Syracuse on Wednesday and 11-5 for Syracuse following an ATS triumph. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last four battles in this rivalry and 4-0 in the last four at the Verizon Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE and UNDER
(25) Michigan (13-3, 8-3-1 ATS) at Illinois (14-2, 8-5 ATS)
Michigan shoots for its fourth straight win, including its second this month against Illinois, when it heads to Champaign, Ill., for a rematch with the Illini at Assembly Hall.
The Wolverines dropped their conference opener to Wisconsin, losing 73-61 as a 3½-point home favorite on New Year’s Eve. But they rebounded with a 74-64 thumping of Illinois as a two-point home favorite, then followed that with a 72-66 overtime win at Indiana a week ago (failing to cover as a 7½-point favorite) and a 64-49 rout of Iowa on Sunday (cashing as a 7½-point chalk).
Sandwiched around their loss at Michigan, the Illini beat Purdue 71-67 in overtime as a 7½-point road underdog, then blasted Indiana 76-45 as a 17½-point home favorite Saturday. Illinois has won eight of its last nine overall – the only blemish being the loss at Michigan – and Bruce Weber’s squad is 11-1 at home (5-4 ATS).
In addition to the 10-point home win over Illinois on Jan. 4, the Wolverines also knocked off the Illini 49-43 as a two-point home underdog in last year’s second meeting. However, in its last two trips to Assembly Hall, Michigan got blown out, losing 54-42 as an eight-point underdog in 2007 and 75-57 as an 11-point pup a year ago – the Wolverines’ only non-covers against the Illini in the last eight meetings. The host is on a 7-0 SU roll in this rivalry and is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 clashes, with Illinois going 4-1 ATS in the last five at Assembly Hall.
Both squads sport similar offensive numbers – the Wolverines average 72.7 ppg on 43.7 percent shooting; Illinois nets 71.2 ppg on 48.3 percent shooting. The biggest discrepancy: Michigan yields 70.5 ppg (42.6 percent) on the road, while the Illini hold their visitors to 55.6 ppg (40 percent).
Although it is 8-3-1 ATS on the season, Michigan is still stuck in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 on the highway, 9-24-2 in road games against teams with a winning home mark, 1-9-1 on Wednesday and 0-5 in the game after holding an opponent to less than 50 points. Illinois is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 9-3 against winning teams and 27-12-2 on Wednesday.
For Michigan, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall and 5-0 on Wednesday, but the under is 8-2 in its last 10 road games and 11-4 in its last 15 Big Ten contests. The under is also 6-1 in Illinois’ last seven at home and 6-2 in its last eight on Wednesday. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head matchups between these schools, with the meeting earlier this month eclipsing the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER
(2) Wake Forest (14-0, 6-4 ATS) at Boston College (13-4, 7-5 ATS)
Two ACC rivals with impressive wins over North Carolina on their ledger hook up at the Conte Forum in Chestnut Hill, Mass., where Boston College looks to hand the second-ranked Demon Deacons their first loss of the season.
Wake Forest matched its best start in school history with Sunday’s 92-89 ACC-opening win over then-No. 3 North Carolina, cashing as a 6½-point home underdog, its third consecutive spread-cover. The teams were tied at 44 at the half, but the Demon Deacons took the lead with 14 minutes to go and never gave it up, thanks mostly to the play of Jeff Teague (career-high 34 points) and Chris McFarland (20 points, tying a season high). Wake Forest, which is 14-0 for the first time since 1980-81, shot 47.5 percent from the field and held the Tar Heels to just 35 percent shooting overall and 6-for-23 from 3-point land.
Exactly one week before Wake Forest toppled the Tar Heels, Boston College went into Chapel Hill and handed North Carolina its first defeat, winning 85-78 as a massive 23-point underdog. However, the Eagles have been unable to build off that monumental victory, suffering a stunning 82-70 loss to Harvard as a 16½-point home favorite a week ago tonight, then falling 77-71 to Miami, Fla., as a 2½-point home favorite. B.C.’s defense has been nonexistent lately, allowing an average of 78.3 ppg in the last four games.
In last year’s lone meeting – which occurred 367 days ago – Boston College dismantled the Demon Deacons 112-73 as a 3½-point home chalk. The Eagles are 4-0 SU and ATS against the Deacons since joining the ACC – all as a favorite – including two blowout wins at home by margins of 39 and 15 points.
Wake Forest now ranks fourth in the nation in both scoring offense (85.7 ppg) and field-goal shooting (51 percent). Defensively, the Demon Deacons give up 66 ppg, but they hold the opposition to 36.3 percent shooting overall, 28 percent shooting from 3-point range and 30 rebounds per game, figures that rank sixth, 10th and first in the nation, respectively. Away from home, Wake is even more impressive offensively, scoring 91.7 ppg on 52.4 percent shooting.
Meanwhile, Boston College puts up 77.5 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting, scoring 70 or more in all but four of its 17 games. In fact, the Eagles have tallied at least 80 points 11 times, but they’ve allowed 70 or more in eight of their last 13 outings.
Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall, but 2-5 ATS in its last seven on the road and 2-5 ATS in its last seven ACC contests. B.C. has failed to cover in four of its last five on Wednesday, but is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games against teams with a winning road mark.
For the Demon Deacons, the over is on stretches of 6-2 on the road and 4-1 in ACC play, and the over for Boston College is on runs of 4-1 overall and 40-19-1 at home. Also, the last three head-to-head meetings between these schools have topped the posted total, including the two at Boston College.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE and OVER
NBA
New Orleans (22-12, 15-18-1 ATS) at Dallas (22-16, 16-22 ATS)
The Hornets will try to rebound from Monday’s shocking home loss to the Knicks when they make the short trek west to Dallas for in the season’s first meeting between these Southwest Division rivals.
New Orleans went off as an 11½-point home favorite against New York on Monday, but never grabbed control of the contest and lost 101-95, dropping to 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games. Since a four-game winning streak, the Hornets are just 2-3 SU and ATS, alternating SU and ATS wins and losses along the way. New Orleans has also split its last six road games, going 2-4 ATS.
Dallas went to Denver last night and suffered a tough 99-97 loss as a six-point road underdog. The game was tied at 95 when the Mavs’ Jason Terry was whistled for a foul with 2.2 seconds left, and Denver’s Chauncey Billups went to the foul line and sank the winning free throws to win it. The Mavericks have followed up an 8-2 SU run by losing their last three in a row, and although they ended an 0-5 ATS streak Tuesday, they’re still just 8-14 ATS in their last 22 contests, including 3-9 ATS at American Airlines Center.
The Hornets eliminated Dallas from the playoffs in the opening round last April, winning the seven-game series in five (3-2 ATS). The team’s split their four-game regular-season series SU and ATS, with the home team winning and covering in all four. In fact, including the postseason, the host went 8-1 in this rivalry last year (7-2 ATS). Also, New Orleans has cashed just twice in its last seven trips to Dallas
Since going through a 15-game stretch when they allowed more than 100 points just twice, the Mavs have surrendered 100 or more in two of their last three, four of their last six and five of their last eight. Meanwhile, New Orleans’ normally stout defense has been struggling, giving up an average of 101.4 ppg in the last five, with four of those foes topping triple digits.
New Orleans is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 Wednesday outings, but 1-5 ATS as an underdog of less than seven points and 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. Dallas has cashed in five straight games on Wednesday and is 43-21-1 ATS in its last 65 divisional contests, but otherwise the Mavs are just 7-21 ATS at home going back to last season, including 4-14 ATS this year.
The under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 series meetings and 9-1 in the last 10 clashes at American Airlines Center. Also, the under for the Mavs is on runs of 13-5 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-1 against Southwest Division rivals and 6-2 when playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The under is also 8-1 in the Hornets’ last nine divisional contests and 17-5 in its last 22 when playing on one day of rest, but the over is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five overall, last five on the road and last five on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Lakers (31-6, 17-20 ATS) at San Antonio (24-12, 17-18-1 ATS)
The Lakers and Spurs resume their contentious rivalry for the first time since last year’s Western Conference Finals, as Los Angeles completes a two-game, two-day swing through Texas with a stop at the AT&T Center.
L.A. went to Houston last night and toppled the Rockets 105-100, barely cashing as a 4½-point road favorite to end an 0-5 ATS slide. The Lakers have won four in a row and 10 of their last 11. However, they’ve been on a roller-coaster ride at the betting window the last six weeks, following up an 0-10 ATS slide with five straight spread-covers before going 0-5 ATS prior to getting the cash at Houston on Tuesday.
San Antonio had a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) snapped in Sunday’s 105-98 loss to the Magic as a three-point home favorite. Despite that setback, the Spurs are still 22-7 since starting the season 2-5. However, they’ve followed up an 11-4 ATS stretch by going 5-8-1 ATS in the last 14.
The Lakers took down San Antonio in five games in last year’s best-of-7 Western Conference finals, going 3-2 ATS. The teams split their four regular-season meetings, with the Spurs going 3-1 ATS. The home team went 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in the nine head-to-head clashes last year, with the favorite covering in five of the last seven.
The Lakers have scored at least 100 points in eight consecutive games and have been held under triple digits just six times through their first 37 contests. For the season, they’re averaging 107.8 points per game (47.3 percent shooting), including 105.1 ppg on the road (46.3 percent), where Phil Jackson’s team is 11-4 on the season (7-8 ATS).
Including Sunday’s loss to Orlando, San Antonio has surrendered 100 points just six times in its last 32 games, and the Spurs are holding opponents to an average of just 93.6 ppg (45.6 percent shooting).
The Lakers are on ATS nosedives of 2-6 on the road, 5-9 against the Western Conference, 6-11 after a SU win and 7-18 after an ATS setback. However, they’re 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 as an underdog, 15-5-2 in their last 22 as a road underdog and 15-7 in their last 22 when playing on back-to-back nights. Meanwhile, San Antonio has cashed in six straight games against the Pacific Division and 14 of 20 versus the Western Conference, but otherwise it is on pointspread declines of 1-5 at home (all as a favorite) and 1-6 on Wednesday.
These teams stayed under the total in all five playoff games last May, and the under is 9-1 in the last 10 battles at the AT&T Center. Furthermore, the under is on runs of 12-2 for the Spurs against Pacific Division foes, 5-0 for the Spurs on Wednesday, 4-2 for the Lakers on the road, 5-1 for the Lakers as an underdog and 5-1 for the Lakers against winning teams. Conversely, though, the over is 6-2 in the Lakers’ last eight overall, 5-2 in San Antonio’s last seven overall and 5-0 in San Antonio’s last five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gimme the loot.
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January 14th, 2009 02:46 PM #3
The Hand of Justice
JIM FEIST
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS / DALLAS MAVERICKS
TAKE NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
James Patrick Sports
Temple vs. Pennsylvania
In a Big Five match-up in the City of Brotherly Love the Owls travel to the Palestra to take on the Quakers and they have cashed in winning tickets in 4 of 5 in this series. Penn has dropped their past 4 games while the Owls are 5-0 on the road. The last thing Temple Head Coach Fran Dunphy wants is to drop a game to his former employer as his Owls have been on a nice run of late. Our Wednesday selection is Temple Owls.
Cajun Sports
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. LSU Tigers -3.5
PLAY: 2* South Carolina Gamecocks +3.5
South Carolina makes the trip to Baton Rouge to face the hometown LSU Tigers in an SEC clash on Wednesday night. South Carolina is 12-2 SU on the year with LSU coming in with a 12-3 SU record on the season.
The Gamecocks bounced back nicely after suffering a tough loss at the hands of their in-state rival Clemson to defeat a solid Baylor team on the road 85 to 84 as a ten point road underdog. They have won their last three games including a 68 to 56 win over SEC rival Auburn as a six-point home favorite.
South Carolina uses an up-tempo style and it has been successful to this point in the season with the Gamecocks averaging 83 points per game. They are shooting better than 52 percent from the field and behind the arc while holding opponents to 44.3 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three-point land.
Carolina has also been successful on the road as an underdog posting a record of 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 times to post. The Gamecocks are also 19-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The fact that the Tigers are not a pressure defensive unit plays into the hands of Carolina as they are a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road when facing teams that force 14 or less turnovers per game.
The Tigers have played a soft non-conference schedule to this point with twelve of their first thirteen games coming at home. Their last two games have exposed their weakness and both Utah and Alabama took advantage of this soft Tigers team.
We expect the Gamecocks to continue with their up-tempo style of play which will cause problems for the Tigers on both ends of the floor which translates into a Carolina win. Take the points with the visitor here as Carolina notches a 2-0 record in conference play to begin the New Year.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) South Carolina 79 LSU 78
Alex Smart
New York Knicks -5.0
The Washington Wizards enter into this road game against the NY Knicks looking like they are complete disarray, as is evident by their overall 7-30 record and current 5 game losing streak that has seen them lose 4 of those tilts against losing teams.
The New Yorks Knicks via HC D'Antonis run and gun attack are starting to show flashes of brilliance , as was the case last time out, in a impressive 101-95 victory over a very good New Orleans Hornets team . I expect the Knickerbockers to ride the momentum of their recent success into this contest versus a Wizards team they have dominated in both meetings this season , scoring an average of 118 PPG in those tilts behind 42.6% shooting from beyond the arc.
Considering both these teams current form, and the Knicks recent success when these foes have met, it will be an easy decision to recommend laying the points with the host side.
Final notes & Key Trends: Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic. Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southeast. Wizards are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings., and have failed to cover in 4 of their L/5 at MSG.
Projected score: NY Knicks 105 Washington 97 (lay the points)
Marc Lawrence
Play On: San Antonio
The Spurs return home off Sunday's 7-point home loss to Orlando when they host the Lakers at the Alamodome this evening. Aside from a revenge motive from being knocked out of last year's playoffs, San Antonio is 15-8 ATS as a host in this series when Los Angeles checks in off a SU and ATS win. Stay at home with the Spurs as they improve to 7-0 SU and ATS in home games off an immediate home loss here tonight.
Stephen Nover
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks
PICK: Over 197.5
Jeff Benton
The free-play streaks improved to 17-7 in College Hoops and 40-19 overall with Tuesday’s easy winner with Tulsa plus the points vs. Memphis. For Wednesday, we flip to the NBA – where I’m on an 8-2 run with freebies – and we’ll take the points with the Lakers at San Antonio.
No doubt the Spurs will have plenty of motivation tonight, as this is their first game against Los Angeles since getting ousted in five games in last year’s Western Conference finals. As prideful a franchise as it is, San Antonio would love nothing more than to exact a little revenge tonight in front of the home fans. Problem is, the Spurs just don’t have what it takes to keep up with the NBA’s best team.
The Lakers have won four in a row and 10 of their last 11, and that includes quality wins over the Rockets last night, as well as the Heat, Hornets, Blazers, Jazz and Celtics. Meanwhile, San Antonio has won four of its last five and nine of its last 11. However, only two of those wins (Miami and Phoenix) came against teams with a winning record. On Sunday, the Spurs stepped up in class, hosting the Magic … and got run out of their gym in a 105-98 home loss as a three-point underdog.
What do the Magic and Lakers have in common? A ton of talent and young, fresh legs – the exact formula that has caused the veteran Spurs trouble for much of this season. In fact, look at many of the teams that have defeated San Antonio this season: the Bucks (twice), Magic (twice), Hornets, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Need I say more?
OK, I will. L.A. has scored at least 100 points in eight straight games and 31 of its 37 this season; San Antonio has hit the century mark just six times in its last 16 games and just nine times in regulation all season. Also, the Lakers have been an underdog twice this season and won both games outright. They’re also 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 as a road underdog and 15-7 ATS the last 22 times they’ve had to go back-to-back.
Easy call here, guys. Look for the Lakers to weather an early storm, then open up a healthy lead going into the fourth quarter. Take the points with Kobe and the boys, though I doubt we’ll need them.
5♦ L.A. LAKERS
Bobby Maxwell
Portland -1 at PHILADELPHIA
The Sixers have won four straight, but the streak stops here when Portland comes to town. The Blazers are a real factor in the Western Conference and they'll deliver a 10-point win tonight.
Portland is on a four-game road trip and took the first game on Monday with a 109-95 win in Chicago, covering as a two-point favorite. They got 33 points from Travis Outlaw and Greg Oden showed up with 17 points and 13 boards. If the Blazers start getting big contributions from Oden and Outlaw, this team is going places. They know LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy are stars, but when the other players come along, this team is very good.
The Blazers had a 25-point lead in this matchup last year in Philadelphia and blew it, losing 92-88. They certainly remember that and will be out to correct that tonight.
Philadelphia is still without Elton Brand and while they've won four straight, remember they did lose six of their first eight without him.
We'll play the Blazers tonight to make it two in a row on this road trip.
3♦ PORTLAND
Sports Gambling Hotline
Richmond +8' at VIRGINIA TECH
Tonight another dog play as we like Richmond to stay close to Virginia Tech tonight in Blacksburg.
Richmond has split the last pair of meetings with the Hokies the last 2 years, covering both in the underdog role. The Spiders have also been able to cover in 3 of their first 5 lined road games this season.
Virginia Tech is in a tough spot, as they have played their last pair in conference play, and have a conference show down with Boston College on-deck this weekend.
The Hokies are 5-1 straight up at home, but have yet to cover a lined home game at 0-3.
With A-10 rep Richmond looking for some respect against the "power" ACC, expect the Spiders to make things sticky for the Hokies in tonight's showdown.
Play on Richmond.
2♦ RICHMOND
Karl Garrett
Syracuse +6' at GEORGETOWN
Tonight I will grab the points with the Orangemen, as Syracuse visits Georgetown on a roll.
The Orangemen have picked up road wins at Rutgers, and South Florida to start the new year, and they are a perfect 5-0 on the highway this season, and a money-making 4-1 against the spread in those roadies.
Georgetown is still a solid 8-1 on their home hardwood, but the Hoyas have been playing some inconsistent ball of late, as they are just 1-2 straight up their last 3, and have failed the spread in all 3 of those outings.
The 'Cuse has taken 2 of the last 3 series meetings, and they have covered in ALL 3 of those series meetings.
Based on the numbers listed above, the points are just too tempting to pass with this underdog tonight.
Take Syracuse.
3♦ SYRACUSE
DAVE COKIN
LA SALLE / NC CHARLOTTE
TAKE: LA SALLE
I utilize several different components to determine my numbers, and here's an example of a game where just about everything indicates a close battle. The Explorers actually seem to be the slightly stronger team right now, but obviously there's a home court edge on the Charlotte side. Bottom line is that I expect this game to be a one-possession result either way, so with the number where it is, La Salle is the value.
Nostradamus
Michigan St -5
Bowling Green +6.5
George Mason -6
South Carolina +3.5
Witchita St +4.5
Boston College +3.5
Baylor -1.5
Brett Maverick Sports
Knicks -5
Tonight we see two teams going different directions as the Knicks run and gun offense is starting to gell, and the Wizards are falling apart. The numbers show the Wizards at 0-5 ats vs the Atlantic, and the Knicks are 4-0 ats vs the Southest. The Knicks have scored an average of 118 points vs the Wizards in two games and Washington has dropped the money four of the last five at Madison Square. We tried, but we cant find any reason to go against the "Dumb" money in this one. It would be a service play, but with 95% of the early money going on the Knicks, we will tread lightly.
Vegas Experts
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have covered 25 of 38 games this year, including 8 of 9 vs. the Southeast Division. Miami remains terrible when coming off SU win, going just 8-25 ATS in that role. They are also 0-7 ATS when playing their 3rd game in four days and an almost equally as bad 2-15 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a straight up loss as a favorite. This line kind of speaks volumes, doesn't it?
Play on: Milwaukee
LT Profits
Richmond +8.0
The Richmond Spiders have been a good investment so far this season, and they find themselves in a favorable scheduling spot when they visit the Virginia Tech Hokies tonight.
You see, Virginia Tech has begun their ACC schedule, and they are coming off of their first conference win of the season vs. Virginia on Saturday. Thus, they cannot be too enthused about this non-conference affair at this time, especially since they resume ACC play vs. Boston College this Saturday.
Conversely, this game means much more to Richmond, who would love to give their program a boost by knocking off an ACC opponent. The Spiders have certainly held their own so far this season, going 9-6 straight up but a much better 6-2 against the spread.
Furthermore, one of those covers came vs. another ACC team in a seven-point loss to Wake Forest, the same Wake team that just knocked off North Carolina. Richmond has also not minded traveling, going a respectable 3-3 SU and a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road.
The Hokies, meanwhile, may be 10-5, but they have not exactly been bettor-friendly, going a poor 3-7 ATS. Tech is 5-1 SU here at home, but they are only winning those games by an average of +6.7 points, a margin that would not be good enough to cover this number.
When you factor in the difference in motivation between these two teams, Richmond become the somewhat obvious choice at this price.
Pick: Richmond +8
The Miller Group
Michigan @ Illinois
PICK: Michigan
Jorge Gonzalez
San Antonio -3
Dwayne Bryant
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
Play : UNDER 199
Jake Timlin
Your Wednesday selection is the Wyoming Cowboys.
Lockoftheday
Today's Lock: Wake Forest -4
Nite Owl Sports
Portland Trailblazers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: 2 units: Portland Trailblazers -1
Wunderdog
Fordham at Dayton
Pick: Fordham +21.5
Drew Gordon
Sacramento at GOLDEN STATE -5
Two NBA doormats match up here, but one team clearly has the advantage, and that's the Warriors at home with their blistering offense. We've seen this Golden State team stand up and deliver in Oakland plenty this season, incl. wins against Denver, Portland, Boston, and most recently Indiana this past Sunday! Expect more of the same tonight.
Kings got absolutely crushed by the Magic at Arco last night, and the last thing they need is to face another high-octane offense the very next day, on the road no less! Granted, both defenses are terrible in this contest, but its the Kings lowly 95 ppg average on the road that has to have their backers worried. Sacto simply doesn't have enough firepower to hang with the Warriors, esp. now that they got Maggette back and playing.
Finally, let's not forget, the last time these two played the Kings layed it on the Warriors, humbling them 115-98 at Arco in November. Payback is a bitch, as the Warriors are playing rock-solid ball at home, and know they can take full advantage of a road-weary, fatigued, & otherwise awful Kings defense tonight. Warriors roll!
Take Golden State over Sacramento in this NBA match up.
2* GOLDEN STATE
South Florida at PITTSBURGH -20'
After an impressive performance at Depaul, I can understand why some bettors would be siding with the Bulls at Pittsburgh tonight. But Rest-assured, there's a BIG difference between playing at Depaul and playing at Pitt, and the Bulls will learn that lesson the hard way tonight.
First and foremost, besides Depaul, what has South Florida shown us on the road, except inconsistency? They got crushed at Oral Roberts at a 1-point fav, they crushed at Vanderbilt, and even lost by 8 at Central Florida... And this is the team that's going to stay competitive with the # 1 ranked Panthers tonight?
Look guys, its no secret that in order to stop the Bulls you need to stop their 3-headed backcourt attack of Jones, Verdejo, and Howard. And there's no team better qualified than the Panthers, with their outstanding defense and strong backcourt play. Just ask St. John's how good the Panthers D is, as they forced the Red Storm into a season-high 24 turnovers Sunday!
On the flip side, how do the Bulls stop the Panthers frontcourt of Young and Blair? Their two best bigmen are underclassmen (Gilchrist, Ajayi), and are seriously outmatched here. Couple that with the fact they still have to stop a red-hot guard duo of Dixon (17 points vs St. John's) and Fields (13 points, 9 assits vs St. John's), and we've got all the makings of a major blowout tonight.
Bottom line, lay the points, as the Panthers protect their house with the same ferocity we saw against St. John's Sunday. South Florida has collapsed on the road before (Oral Roberts comes to mind), and they'll collapse again tonight in their toughest road game of the season.
Take Pittsburgh BIG over South Florida in this college hoops match up.
2* PITTSBURGH
Chris Jordan
Maryland at MIAMI -8
The Terrapins haven’t won at Miami in three tries since the Hurricanes joined the ACC in 2004. But we only need to look back to last season, when Maryland shot 37.1 percent and dropped a 78-63 decision. And that was against a Miami team that wasn’t exactly a well-rounded bunch. The ‘Canes haven’t gotten that many in the stands this season, but this is a big enough game that we might be able to expect somewhat of a raucous crowd.
Miami comes into this one on ATS runs of 12-5 after an ATS win and 27-11 overall. On the other hand, the Terps are 4-10 ATS after suffering a spread setback and 0-4 versus the number against conference foes. Lay the home chalk in this one.
3* MIAMI HURRICANES
Gimme the loot.
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January 14th, 2009 07:40 PM #4
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January 14th, 2009 07:45 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
RON RAYMOND
5* NBA O/U GAME OF THE NIGHT (73% ANGLE)
Heat / Bucks Under 194
5* CBB O/U GAME OF THE NIGHT
Southern Illinois/ Creighton Under 131.5
Jim Hurley
St Bon +3.5
Arkansas +2.5
Michigan +7
Spurs/Lakers Under 199
All Medium Plays
C-Stars Sports
5000 Units
Lakers/Spurs UNDER
Lenny Stevens
10* Virginia Tech
10* Boston College
Wayne Root
Chairman- Ole Miss
Millionaire- Colorado St
Insiders Circle- Illinois
atslocks.com
Bowling Green +7 (5 unit)
Michigan State -4 (10 unit)
Iowa State Pick (5 unit)
Illinois State (10 unit)
Heat/Bucks Under 196 (10 unit)
Lakers +2.5 (5 unit)
Opposite Action Plays
Syracuse
Bob Balfe
Wizards
Lenny Del Genio
GS Warroirs
Eddie Mush
4* Drake +8.5
6* SDST -6
6* Colorado +17
Scott Spreitzer
25* CBB REALITY CHECK ANNIHILATOR!
The LSU Tigers have just found out what we already knew. They're not nearly as good as their record would indicate. After beating up on the likes of Alcorn State, Centenary, and Grambling State, en route to a 12-1 start, the Tigers have begun to fall back to earth. The talent level is mediocre by SEC standards, and they're about to get their biggest dose of reality as far as I'm concerned, when they take on a South Carolina team that already owns a road win over top-20 Baylor. LSU averaged 78.3 ppg in their 12 wins against soft opposition. In their three losses, to Texas A&M, Utah, and Alabama, the Tigers have scored an average of just 60.3 ppg! They're connecting on just 41% of their FGA, making a grand total of just nine treys in the three losses at 24%. They're also minus-14 in the rebound category, and LSU is losing a lot of ground at the charity stripe. The Tigers are committing way too many fouls, while not drawing many, themselves. LSU averaged just 15 FTA per game in the losses, while their opponents have shot 30, 24, and 35! South Carolina has been nasty this season on the defensive end...and that's an under-statement. The Gamecocks have forced 13 of their 14 opponents to finish with more turnovers than assists. And, we're not just talking about one or two more. USC has forced SEVEN of their 14 opponents to commit 20 or more assists. In fact, on the season, USC opposition is averaging exactly 20 turnovers per game, for a MINUS-9 assist-to-turnover per game average! WOW! That is the "stat of the year" through the first half of the season, as far as I'm concerned. It's another serious dose of reality for LSU as they take another SEC contest on the chin. I'm taking the points with South Carolina on Wednesday.
Jim Feist
Sec Goy South Carolina
VictoriousPlay
3* Oklahoma Over 202.5
3* Goergia Tech +12
2* Philadelphia +2
ATS Sports Club
NCAA Hoops Mismatch Winner
LSU Tigers -3
Ron Meyer
Consensus St Louis
Seabass
300* Lakers/Spurs Under
20*s
Miami
Drake
Kent St
Philly
100* Sac Kings
Kirkwins
5* Charlotte -4.5
4* Rutgers +10
4* So. Illinois +10.5
4* Bowling Green +7
4* UNLV -7.5
3* Toledo +10.5
3* St. Joe -3
3* Davidson -23
3* James Madison -15
ATS Lock Club
6 units Iowa St. -1.5
5 units Mississippi St. -7
4 units Drake +8.5
3 units Boston College +3.5
ATS Financial Package
4 units Cal Riverside-1
4 units Illinois -7
3 units Marshall +14.5
3 units Penguins
California Sports
4* Miami (Oh)
Paul Leiner:
300* NYK/Wash Over 198
50* Syracuse +6
25* Florida -2
10* Rice -2.5
Nick Parsons
Boston Celtics
ATS Sports Club
NHL Ice-Melter Winner
Penguins/Capitals Over 6
Fairway Jay
20* Wyoming
Scott Ferrall
WEDNESDAY'S TOP SHELF COLLEGE HOOP LOCKS
AUBURN +3 from Florida--Tigers 9-1 at home (1)
ILLINOIS STATE -8.5 to Drake--ILL ST 14-2 overall and 10-0 at home (4)
LSU -3.5 to South Carolina (3)
PENN STATE +6 from Michigan St--LIONS 11-2 at home (5)
PITT -20 to South Florida--Panthers 10-0 in Steel Town and #1 in nation-unbeaten 15-0 (2)
DUKE -10.5 to Georgia Tech--UNDER 145 (6)
(1) Is Highest Rated Play
RAS
Dayton over 123.5
Arkansas under 147.5
Dime Players
GSW -5'
Capitals -120
Tony Smith
100* Late Steam
James Madison
Erin Rynning
20* Spurs
Nets
PennSt.
James Madison
Howie Fiener
50 Dime Illinois
Indiancowboy
4 Unit Play (CBB). Take Illinois -7 over Michigan
Have no fear, the Illini are here. We took Illinois at home when they faced Indiana and they went on to win by 30 plus. Part of the reasoning for that game was the fact that this team needed a big conference win, they were coming off a loss and most importantly - revenge. After all, Illinois was swept by Indiana last year and Illinois had lost several recruits last year and had some bad luck but all of that are simply memories as this team now sits at 14-2 and is a top 20 power ranking team in my book. Illinois has just 2 losses this year one was to Clemson at home by a bucket and the other a hard fought contest against Michigan on the road where Illinois was leading at several points in the second half and fell short. Well, Illinois gets their revenge today. Though they are favored by 5, this is a team with their sound defense at home can win by double-digits. After all, they beat Georgia by 34, Hawaii by 10, Missouri by 16 and even beat Purdue outright on the road in OT. Illinois will be reved up for this game and I do not expect them to lay down the gas pedal. Michigan is a good team that is well coached. But, what's wild is that I only have them as a top 50 power ranking team. Michigan is an odd team. They beat the likes of Duke and UCLA this year and lost to Wisconsin by 12 at home. Heck, they were nearly beat by Indiana on the road. Well, this is conference play. Illinois will start strong from start to finish in this contest and I expect them to win this contest by double-digits. Granted, we took Louisville on this same principle with a line by -6.5 and we nearly had a heart attack but they did cover in the extra frame. Let's hope that this game is a bit smoother as I see a 70-55 type of final here. Remember, Michigan was down 22-39 to Indiana at the end of the first half and Indiana might end up being the worst team in the conference this year. Furthermore, Michigan only put up 59 points in the first half against Indiana and I expect them to have a tough time scoring while Illinois will be ready to roll from start to finish as they average in the low to mid 70's with respect to their offense at home. The Wolverines are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games while Illinois is 9-3 ATS against teams with a straight up winning record meaning they show up big against the better teams in the nation.
4 Unit Play (NBA). Take Over 202.5 between Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
I don't think this line is going to get any lower, so this is what we are rolling with our POD today. I understand that Millsap and Miles are likely questionable and one if not both will be out today. But, no worries as I believe both teams will eclipse a 100 here. I have talked and written extensively about, "active dogs = overs". This meaning that when you have a dog that is expected to be an "active dog" they exceed expectations and push the total over. Such is the case today. I have ridden OKC several times this year and been on the bandwagon during their startling 25-14 ATS run. This team has covered 7 of their last 8 games, and has defeated the Knicks at home, lost to Denver by just 2, defeated the Warriors at home and lost to the Rockets by just 2 as well. I want to go to the Rockets game for a second as it is indicative of this game. In that game, the Thunder as they are in this game were 5.5 to 6.5 dogs and the game's final score was 96-98 as the Thunder covered and the total finished at 194. And, this was against a defensive team in the Rockets. The Jazz are not such a defensive team and they are favored by the public to a tune of 70% plus here and the Thunder will be very active dogs if not win this game outright. But, more importantly, thy will look to push this total over. I want to take you back to these two teams prior meeting this year in which the Jazz won 104-97. What is missed is the fact the total for the first half in that contest was 87, as the score was 29-58 Jazz going into halftime. In the second half, the Thunder had outscored the Jazz 68-46 and got inside the cover and lost by just 7. I point that out to show that game was back in November when the Thunder were green and were not playing well with their crop of youth. Much has changed. The Thunder are playing great competitive basketball right now and are one of the best teams ATS in the NBA to show for it. I do not look for them to have such a horrible first half as they did against the Jazz on the road earlier this year, this team will likely start off strong right from the get-go as they come off an OT loss to the Nets as they return home and I look for them to push the Jazz here for the outright win and more importantly, push the total over the posted total. The over is 4-1 when the Jazz are favored of late and the over is 5-2 for the Thunder when they are a dog by this margin indicating they have been playing well as active dogs of late and consequently overs have been cashing.
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
8000* COLLEGE HOOPS LATE STEAM WINNER
Dayton -21
Stu Feiner
100 dimes big ten no brainer.
Mich St
Trio of gollege hoops winners
Illinois
St Bonaventure
Cal Riverside
RAS
Wilmington +16
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
New Jersey Nets vs Boston Celtics
Play: New Jersey Nets +10 (POD)
Syracuse vs Georgetown
Play: Syracuse +6
Dr Bob
Michigan State (-5) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.
South Florida (+21 1/2) 2-Stars at +21 or more.
Duke (-11 1/2) 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.
St. Joseph's (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -4 or less.
West Virginia (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
One opinion on SMU +2 1/2.
Executive
400 Miss
250 Baylor
250 Pistons
Stu Fiener
500 Dime High Roller Club Big East Mismatch
Syracuse (+6) at Georgetown
Syracuse knows it’s opened up its Big East schedule with a quartet of wins, albeit solid victories, over some of the conference’s lesser opponents. They also know they’re being called out by critics because of it. They’re ready to answer those naysayers tonight. Make no mistake, this 16-1 SU (prefect save for a half-court buzzer-beater from Cleveland State) team is solid and after covering five of their last six overall, they’ll win this one outright tonight. Pittsburgh showed with its 16-point thumping in DC that the Hoyas are not invincible at home. And certainly Syracuse, which is 3-0 SU/ATS as a dog last year and split the series with Georgetown last year including a two-point loss at the Verizon Center, won’t be intimidated. The Hoyas have really struggled with their shot of late and the team hasn’t been getting consistent point production from its backcourt. The Hoyas rank just 10th in the Big East in scoring (69.2 ppg) while the Orangemen are the conference’s highest-scoring team at 81.5 ppg. In failing to cover in three straight (1-2 SU), Georgetown has seen its three guards, Jessie Sapp, Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, make just a combined seven three-pointers. They’re shooting under 22% from beyond the arc in that stretch and now face a Orangemen zone defense that has stymied the Hoyas in the past, Under coach John Thompson III, the Hoyas are just 2-4 SU versus the Cuse. Syracuse has already gone on the road and beaten a tough defensive team in Memphis and they’ll be ready for the Hoyas tough defense tonight. Way too many points to ask this struggling Georgetown offense to cover tonight as Syracuse with something to prove is the winning play.
SYRACUSE (+6) 500 Dime High Roller Club
Gimme the loot.
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