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January 15th, 2009 03:15 PM #1
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January 15th, 2009 03:16 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(15) Xavier (13-2, 7-6 ATS) at Rhode Island (11-5, 6-4-1 ATS)
Xavier will go after its fifth straight victory when it makes an Atlantic 10 trip to Rhode Island, which just had its three-game win streak snapped in excruciating fashion.
The Musketeers ripped Fordham 86-60 Sunday to easily cover as a 17-point road favorite, winning their fourth in a row (3-0 ATS in lined games) following a two-game SU and ATS skid in setbacks to Duke and Butler. During their current streak, the Musketeers have won all four games by at least 16 points, putting up an average of 79.5 ppg. Also, for the season, Xavier is fifth in the nation defensively in field-goal percentage, allowing opponents to hit at just a 36.7 percent clip.
The Rams fell short at St. Joe’s on Saturday, losing 92-86 in triple-overtime as a 1˝-point road underdog for their second straight ATS setback in just their fourth lined game since Dec. 6. Rhode Island has been putting up points lately, averaging 85.6 ppg in its last five games, but it is also allowing 77 ppg. The Rams have played just one home game in the past month – routing Akron 79-50 on Jan. 3 as an eight-point chalk – but they’re outscoring opponents by more than 14 ppg at home (84.3-67.8).
Xavier is on a 7-1 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, including an 81-77 road win last February as a two-point pup. The Musketeers have cashed in five straight at Rhode Island, and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
The Musketeers are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on Thursday, 4-0 on the highway, 5-1 after a SU win and 10-3 after a win of more than 20 points. The Rams are on a 6-1 ATS roll against winning teams, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-9 in conference play, 3-8-1 at home, 3-8 following a SU loss and 3-8 in Thursday contests.
The over for Xavier is on stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road, and the over for Rhode Island is on rolls of 48-23 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 20-7 inside the A-10 and 36-17 at home. Finally, the total has gone high in the last six meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER and OVER
(18) Minnesota (15-1, 7-3-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-4, 7-7 ATS)
Streaking Minnesota looks to keep its surprising start going when it travels to the Kohl Center to take on Wisconsin.
The Golden Gophers pounded Penn State 79-59 Sunday as a 6˝-point home chalk, winning and cashing for the third straight game since suffering their only setback of the year – a 70-58 home loss to Michigan State laying one point. Against the Nittany Lions, Minnesota went a perfect 9-for-9 from 3-point range and shot a scorching 62.5 percent overall (30 of 48), while allowing Penn State to shoot just 36.7 percent (22 of 60).
The Badgers lost to Purdue 65-52 Sunday catching six points, ending their three-game SU run (2-1 ATS) to open Big Ten Conference play. Wisconsin shot just 37.5 percent (21 of 56), well off its season average of 44.5. The Badgers have a typically solid defense this year, allowing just 59.2 ppg (23rd nationally) while scoring 66.4 ppg., and on their home floor, they’re outscoring opponents by 11 ppg (67.1-56.0).
Wisconsin is on a 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) run in this rivalry, including a 65-56 home win last year, but Minnesota covered in that contest as a 10-point pup. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Gophers are on positive ATS runs of 7-1 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-1 coming off a SU win and 5-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Likewise, the Badgers are on ATS upticks of 6-1 after a SU loss, 16-5-1 after a pointspread setback and 9-3 in conference play.
The under for Minnesota is on streaks of 19-7 overall, 8-1 on Thursday, 6-1 in roadies and 13-3 in the Big Ten, and the under for Wisconsin is on stretches of 6-1 on Thursday, 5-1 against winning teams, 8-3 in conference play and 17-8-1 at the Kohl Center. In addition, the total has gone low in six of the last eight contests in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Arizona (11-5, 8-6 ATS) at (9) UCLA (13-2, 7-7 ATS)
Red-hot UCLA, returning home after a successful three-game road swing to open Pac-10 play, takes on Arizona at Pauley Pavilion.
The Bruins followed up a road sweep of Oregon and Oregon State by holding off archrival Southern Cal 64-60 Sunday as a two-point road chalk for their ninth consecutive victory (4-4 ATS in lined games). UCLA got outshot by USC 49 percent to 42 percent, but the Bruins went 8-for-20 from three-point land 14-for-19 on free throws, while the Trojans went just 3 of 9 from long distance and made 9 of 15 free throws. It was a rare close game for UCLA, which is averaging 76.2 ppg and allowing just 58.3 (16th nationally).
The Wildcats, like UCLA, swept Oregon and Oregon State, but did so on their home floor last weekend, dropping Oregon 67-52 as a 10-point favorite last Thursday and routing Oregon State 64-47 laying 15˝ points Saturday. Those wins followed a pair of double-digit losses at Cal and Stanford (0-2 ATS). In fact, on the road this season, Arizona is giving up 72.8 ppg, while scoring just 61.2.
UCLA has won seven straight games in this rivalry (5-2 ATS), including an 82-60 home rout last February giving nine points. A month later, the Bruins held off the Wildcats 68-66, with Arizona covering as a 5˝-point home ‘dog.
The Bruins are on ATS runs of 5-0 against winning teams, 4-0 versus teams with a win percentage above .600 and 12-4 on Thursday, but they’ve gone 0-4 ATS in their last four starts following a spread-cover. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are on a handful of negative ATS streaks, including 1-6 on the road, 4-9 after a SU win and 9-19 in their last 28 Thursday outings.
The under is 5-2 in UCLA’s last seven games, but the over is 6-1 in the Bruins’ last seven at home following a road trip of three or more games. The over for Arizona is on a 20-9 run on Thursdays, but the under is on a 4-0 stretch (all in Pac-10 play).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
(16) Arizona State (14-2, 8-4 ATS) at USC (10-5, 6-7 ATS)
Surging Arizona State heads to Los Angeles for a meeting at the Galen Center with Southern Cal, which is looking to halt a two-game SU and ATS skid.
The Sun Devils have won 10 of their last 11 games (6-2 ATS in lined contests), including a SU and ATS home sweep of Oregon State and Oregon last week to bounce back from an 81-71 loss at Cal laying 1˝ points. Following a 69-38 beatdown of Oregon State last Thursday as an overwhelming 19˝-point chalk, ASU rolled over Oregon 76-58 giving 15˝ points Saturday. The Sun Devils, outscoring opponents by nine ppg on the road (73.3-64.3), have averaged 78.0 ppg in their last five starts, while allowing 60.2.
The Trojans opened Pac-10 play with an 83-62 road rout of Oregon as a 2˝-point favorite for their fifth straight win, but they’ve since suffered a pair of SU and ATS losses. USC tumbled at Oregon State 62-58 in overtime as a healthy 11-point chalk, then returned home Saturday and dropped a tight decision to archrival UCLA, losing 64-60 as a two-point pup. In that contest, 3-pointers and free throws were the difference, as the Trojans went 3 of 9 from long distance and 9 of 15 at the line, while the Bruins hit 8 of 20 3-pointers and 14 of 19 free throws.
ASU has cashed in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry (3-3 SU), going 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU in last year’s meetings, including a 59-55 road loss catching 4˝ points. The underdog is on a 9-2 ATS stretch in the last 11 contests.
The Sun Devils are on a 1-5 ATS decline following a pointspread win, but they are otherwise on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Thursday, 6-1-1 on the highway and 6-1-1 against the Pac-10. The Trojans are on ATS dips of 2-9 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 1-4 on Thursday and 2-6 against winning teams, but they’ve been a good bounce-back team, going 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests after a non-cover.
The over has hit in seven of ASU’s last 10 games, but the under for the Sun Devils is on streaks of 6-1 on Thursday, 7-2 after an ATS win and 5-2 against winning teams, and the under for USC is on stretches of 4-1 in Pac-10 play, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after an ATS loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five straight games at the Galen Center and is 6-2 in the last eight contests overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Cleveland (30-6, 26-10 ATS) at Chicago (17-22 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers take the NBA’s best record into the United Center in Chicago for a matchup with the struggling Bulls.
LeBron James and his crew have won three straight and come into this one off Tuesday’s 102-87 blowout of Memphis, covering as an 8˝-point road favorite as James delivered a triple-double. The Cavaliers are 11-6 SU and ATS on the road, and they’ve been on a roll lately, shooting 50.8 percent from the floor and 44.6 percent from the three-point line over their last five games while holding the opposition to 84.6 points per game and 39.9 percent shooting.
Chicago is just 4-7 SU (3-8 ATS) in its last 11 games, but got a road victory in Toronto on Wednesday, beating the Raptors 102-98 as a 4˝-point pup. The Bulls are just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games and they’ve dropped consecutive contests at the United Center to Oklahoma City (109-98 as 8˝-point favorites Saturday) and Portland (109-95 as two-point underdogs Monday).
Cleveland has already beaten the Bulls three times this season (3-0 ATS), including a 117-92 blowout on Jan. 2 as a 12˝-point home chalk. Back on Nov. 8, the Cavs went to the United Center and scored a 106-97 win as two-point favorites. Despite that road victory by Cleveland, the home team is on a 15-6 ATS roll in this rivalry, while the favorite has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Cavaliers are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 37-14 overall, 16-7 on the highway, 20-6 as favorites, 22-8 against Eastern Conference teams and 16-6 after getting a day of rest. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games, but otherwise they are on negative ATS streaks that include 2-6 overall, 1-5 at home, 2-5 as a ‘dog, 5-10 against the Eastern Conference and 2-6 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Cleveland has stayed under the posted total in eight of its last 10 games after getting a day off and four of its last five Thursday outings, but the Cavs have gone over the total in 15 of their last 23 games as a road chalk. Chicago is on “over” stretches of 12-5 overall, 8-3 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 as an underdog and 5-1 on the second night of back-to-backs. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 4-1 in the last five in the Windy City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Phoenix (22-13, 13-22 ATS) at Denver (26-13, 21-17-1 ATS)
The Suns have found their offense and now go in search of a fourth straight win when they visit the Pepsi Center to take on the Nuggets.
Phoenix has topped the century mark in seven straight games (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS), including Tuesday’s 107-102 home win over the Hawks, but the Suns failed to cash as 7˝-point favorites. They are averaging 112 points a game and shooting 51.2 percent from the floor over the last five, including 42.9 percent from beyond the three-point line.
Denver had its five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) snapped in Friday’s 93-90 home loss to the Pistons as a 4˝-point favorite. The Nuggets rebounded with Tuesday’s 99-97 home win over the Mavericks, but again failed to cash, this time as a six-point chalk. George Karl’s club is 15-5 SU (12-8 ATS) in front of the home fans this season.
The host is on a 7-0 SU and ATS run in this series, and the winner has scored at least 108 points in each of the last nine contests. Furthermore, the home team is on a 13-3 ATS run in the last 16 meetings, with the favorite on an ongoing 6-0 ATS streak. Denver has cashed each of the last four times it has entertained the Suns inside the Pepsi Center.
Phoenix has been a disaster at the betting window, riding negative ATS waves of 1-4 overall, 3-7 on the road, 6-13 against the Western Conference, 3-8 after a non-cover, 1-5-1 as a ‘dog, 0-4 on Thursdays and 2-6 when playing on one day of rest. The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after getting a day off, but otherwise they sport negative ATS trends of 2-5 against the Western Conference and 1-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.
For the Suns, the over is on runs of 13-6 overall, 6-2 after a day off, 6-1 on the road, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 against Western Conference teams. Similarly, the Nuggets are on “over” streaks of 8-2 overall, 11-5 at home, 7-2 as a favorite, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 on Thursdays. Lastly, these teams have topped the total in six of the last seven meetings against each other.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Gimme the loot.
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January 15th, 2009 03:17 PM #3
The Hand of Justice
Indian Cowboy
Take Chicago (+8.5) over Cleveland
Since the "Ben Wallace" trade that sent the likes of Big Ben to Cleveland and Gooden and Hughes to Chicago, these two teams have had history. Tack on the fact that Cleveland has burned this team by scores of 117-92 at home and 106-97 on the road, you are looking for a big payback here for the Bulls. The Bulls have struggled of late but they have also been injured. With the likes of Deng, Kirk and Gooden back, this team is deeper and healthier as it has ever been and I see them stepping up big at home as they are finally at full strength to stay inside the number
Cajun Sports CBB
Purdue Boilermakers -4 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
PLAY: 2* Purdue Boilermakers -4
Purdue takes to the Big 10 road for a conference battle against the host Northwestern Wildcats at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston Illinois on Thursday night. Purdue enters tonight’s matchup with a 1-2 conference record while the Wildcats are still looking for their first conference win of the 2008-09 campaign.
Purdue opened their conference campaign losing in overtime at home to Illinois as an 8-point home favorite 71 to 67. The Boilers followed that loss by losing a close game at Big 10 rival Penn State 67 to 64 as a 2.5 point road favorite. In that game they were without two of their key starters in second leading scorer forward Robbie Hummel and guard Chris Kramer. Both returned in their last game which was a win over Wisconsin on Sunday, Hummel had 16 points, 2 assists and 5 rebounds in twenty-eight minutes of action. Kramer scored 4 points and had a rebound in twenty-one minutes against the Badgers.
To say the Wildcats have struggled in Big 10 action would certainly be an understatement. They opened Big 10 play at Penn State and lost 61 to 57 as a 2 point road underdog which wasn’t a terrible loss but they went downhill after that. They hosted Michigan State and lost 77 to 66 as a 4.5 point home underdog.
The Wildcats last played on Jan 7 as they hosted Big 10 foe Wisconsin and proceeded to go 16 of 51 from the floor for 31.4 percent shooting and lost 74 to 45. In that game they used 10 players off their bench and the contributions were negligible at best. They have failed to show any improvement over their last few games and the road will not be any easier tonight against a solid Purdue team.
Purdue should be able to control the pace of tonight’s contest and they have an offensive efficiency rating of 107.0 compared to the Wildcats 104.6. The Boilermakers are 6 in the nation in defensive efficiency holding opponents to a rating of 84.0 per game.
The Boilermakers average 72.2 points per game on the road this season versus teams that allow 65.4 points per game. Purdue is allowing 63.0 points per game versus teams that would normally average 66.9 points per game. The Boilermakers are shooting 45.8 percent from the field and holding their opponents to 36.2 percent shooting while on the road.
The Wildcats are only averaging 56.0 points per game when facing conference opponents and they are allowing 70.7 points per game. Wildcat opponents are shooting better than 42 percent from the field while the Cats have only managed 38.9 percent shooting.
On the technical front we see that Purdue has responded well on the road after defeating a conference rival as they are 6-0 ATS in that role the last two seasons. The Boilermakers are 44-29 ATS overall the last three seasons and 15-6 ATS when facing conference opponents. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS at home off a loss of 10 or more points to a conference rival. They are 1-9 ATS at home versus conference foes and 1-8 ATS at home as an underdog.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the visitor here as the Boilermakers get the win and cover over a Wildcat team that remains winless in conference play.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Purdue 67 Northwestern 59
JIM FEIST
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS / CHICAGO BULLS
TAKE: CHICAGO BULLS
Reason: Cleveland is a perfect 19-0 at home, but 11-6 on the road. Very good, but not dominating. The Cavs are also without their center, the Big Z, and he's a huge part of their offense and defense. The Bulls are getting healthy with Kirk Hinrich back after sitting out the last 31 games and Luol Deng (after missing the last eight). This is the second straight road game for Cleveland. Oddsmakers have caught up with the sizzling Cavs, just 5-5 ATS the last 10 games. Play the Bulls.
Jorge Gonzalez
Cleveland -8
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a money-making machine all season with a record of 26-10 ATS. The Bulls on the other hand have been a losing proposition 16-22 ATS. The Cavaliers have been impressive covering 37 of their last 51 games. The last three games between these two teams have been won and covered by the Cavaliers by an average margin of 16 points per game. Overall the Cavaliers have eight of their 10 games while the Bulls have lost seven of their last 10 games and have covered the spread just twice. The Cavaliers have been able to get things done with their defense limiting their opponents to just 84.6 points over their last five games. The Cavaliers are a dominating 14-3 ATS against a team with a losing record while the while the Bulls are 0-5 against a team with a winning record. LeBron James is coming a a triple double that saw him score 30 points pull down 13 rebounds and dish out 10 assists. Look for the Cavaliers to keep rolling.
Dave Cokin
Cleveland St @ UW Green Bay
Play: Cleveland State
Nice job by La Salle as the free opinion last night, and I'll go with another road team tonight. Cleveland State dropped two of its first three league games, but they're in good form presently and they're a better team than UW-Green Bay. Cleveland State wins the game in six of the eight key categories I emphasize in creating my numbers. This absolutely figures to be close, but the fact that the Vikings have no fear on the road (remember the win at Syracuse) gets me over the hump on this one.
Jeff Benton
Another free-play winner in the books on Wednesday, as the Lakers (5♦) battled back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit and got within the number at San Antonio (and frankly, should’ve won the game outright). So I’m now on a 9-2 run in the NBA with freebies and a 41-19 roll overall over the past 60 days! For Thursday, we switch back to College Hoops – I’m on a 17-7 run with comp plays there – and lay the big points with North Carolina at Virginia.
Think the Tar Heels might be a wee bit ticked off coming into this game? After absolutely cruising through the non-conference portion of their schedule – not a single non-league opponent came within 14 points of Roy Williams’ team – Carolina has dropped its first two ACC games. The first was a stunning 85-78 home loss to Boston College as a 23-point favorite; the second was Sunday’s 92-89 setback at current No. 2 and undefeated Wake Forest.
So in the span of 10 days, the Tar Heels have gone from the lofty perch of undisputed No. 1 team in the land with legitimate talk of an undefeated season ,,, to the bottom of the ACC standings! Well, pity poor Virginia, which is going to incur the wrath of an immensely gifted team that’s now got a massive chip on its shoulder. In a nutshell, North Carolina is seeking to get its mojo back, and the quickest way to do that is to lay the wood to an inferior conference opponent on the road. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, they drew the short straw tonight.
Listen, if ever there was a game where Williams will leave his big guns in the whole way and run up the score if the given the opportunity, it’s this one. Nothing against Virginia per se; ol’ Roy is just desperate to restore confidence and that aura of invincibility within his players. Well, tonight, those players face a Virginia squad that’s just 4-6 in its last 10 games and has given up 78, 84 and 84 points in three of its last four games. Through their first 13 games, the Cavaliers have faced three opponents currently ranked in the Top 25, and they lost all three, getting blown out by both Xavier at home (84-70) and Minnesota on the road (66-56), while hanging at Syracuse (73-70 loss).
North Carolina has won four in a row and six of the last seven in this rivalry, and although the Heels are just 2-3-1 ATS during this stretch, I promise you, in none of those previous meetings were they as determined or angry – or, for that matter, as talented – as they are tonight. Carolina is 5-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points, and I’m telling you, this one has 25-point blowout written all over it.
7♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Gimme the loot.
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January 15th, 2009 03:17 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
Matt Rivers
For Thursday lay the wood with San Diego.
I just do not see how Gyno Pomare and the Torreros are not going to win this game by a billion. When a game seems too easy more times than not it's not and that is why I can't make this a billion star lock of my life type of a play but with that said I also cannot pass this up as I see the game being a 90-57 absolute whacking. Don't get me wrong, San Diego is far from being a Duke or North Carolina but they are an NCAA Tournament team and in this matchup will be way too much.
San Diego is a really solid squad that has won four in a row games with three of those being on the road. They prevailed in great fashion at Mississippi State which is never easy and also won recently at Santa Clara and San Francisco. Now back home against the awful Waves really should be a cakewalk.
Pepperdine used to be a competitive squad that was just behind Gonzaga in the WCC but my oh my have times changed. This team is an absolute 4-15 doormat right now that in that last game beat a pathetic Loyola Marymount group by a bucket in a non-cover. Besides that this team has been pretty much blown out game in and game out. Even the struggling Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went out West and downed the Waves by nearly 30 on their home floor.
Tom Asbury really can't be feeling too good about his team as they very well may not win another game the entire season. They should enjoy this two game winning streak against Western Oregon and Loyola because the bottomfeeders on their schedule are no longer around and today they get flat out whacked as world order is restored once again.
Karl Garrett
Northeastern -3 at DELAWARE
The G-Man is going to lay a few points with Northeastern tonight at Delaware.
The Huskies have been playing their best basketball of the season, coming to the U of D having won andd covered 4 straight.
On the road Northeastern is a money-turning 6-3 both straight up, and against the spread.
Compare that to Delaware's 3-5 home mark, and the Blue Hens 3-game losing streak that has seen them drop 2 of those 3 against the spread, and you can see why the G-Man is going to lay the short road wood this evening.
Series numbers of late have been all Northeastern, as the Huskies have ripped off wins in each of the last 5 meetings, and they have covered in 3 of the last 4 tilts as well.
Take Northeastern minus the number.
2♦ NORTHEASTERN
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona State -1 at USC
On the college hardwood for the FREE winner tonight as we play Arizona State tonight at Southern California to take on the Trojans.
The Sun Devils have opened the Pac-10 season winning three of four and the key has been their defense. Tonight they get a USC squad that has struggled to put the ball in the basket and is coming off a tough loss to crosstown rival UCLA.
We'll take our chances with the high-scoring Sun Devils. They have averaged 78 points a game in their last five outings and they are shooting an amazing 57.3 percent from the floor in those five. They just swept the Oregon schools last weekend, including a 76-58 home win over Oregon on Saturday, cashing as 15 1/2-point favorites.
So far in three Pac-10 games this season, Southern Cal has scored 60 or less twice and they've scored 76 or less twice in the last 10 games. Against UCLA on Sunday, the Trojans fell 64-60 to UCLA and had several stretches where they failed to put points on the board.
Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in the last six matchups with USC. The Sun Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Pac-10 games, 4-0 ATS on Thursdays and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. USC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Thursday contests, 2-9 ATS in its last 11 at home against teams with a winning road mark and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover.
The Sun Devils will get the win and cover tonight in Southern California.
4♦ ARIZONA STATE
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at New York Islanders
Prediction: Over
The over is 7-1-1 in the Bruins last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 8 games played with 1 day rest between action the over is 5-1-2. The over is 7-3-2 in Boston's last 12 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. New York has played over the total in 6 of their last 8 games overall. In their last 19 home games the over is 13-5-1. In their last 28 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents the over is 19-7-2. New York will be without their starting goalie and that's trouble. Play the over.
Scott Spreitzer
Iona at Niagara
Play: Niagara
I'm laying the points with Niagara on Thursday. Those who have been with me this college basketball season know I have flown with the Purple Eagles several times. They were a red-hot spread team for the first dozen-plus games. But I haven't jumped aboard in the new year...until now. Niagara struggled in their last two outings, losing their most recent game to Marist. But they played several games in a short amount of time and it caught up to them, along with the line. The game against Marist was their sixth in 14 days and they paid the price with poor shooting and a sluggish night on the defensive end. It was evident in the loss that they were running on tired legs. But they're rich on talent, especially in this conference, led by Tyrone Lewis, Bilal Benn, and Benson Egemonye. Iona definitely does not matchup well with Niagara and has had to deal with a lot of injuries and player-defections already this season. They'll be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Purple Eagles to get back on track. I'm laying the points with Niagara on Thursday.
Gimme the loot.
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January 15th, 2009 03:18 PM #5
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January 15th, 2009 03:20 PM #6
The Hand of Justice
Vegas Experts
Cleveland Cavs at Chicago Bulls
Cleveland has dominated this season series in 2008-09 winning all three games by an average margin of 16 PPG, obviously covering each time. The slimmest margin of victory has been nine points, which won't get it done here and it doesn't help that the Bulls are playing without rest. Nor is a terrible 3-16 ATS mark when coming off a SU win as an underdog. Heck, they are just 13-35 ATS off a win of any kind! Cleveland is a league best 26-10 ATS overall.
Play on: Cleveland
LT Profits
Idaho +7.5
The New Mexico State Aggies are usually tough at home, but this has not been the case lately and they could be in trouble tonight vs. the improved Idaho Vandals.
Idaho is off to a respectable 8-8 start, which already matches their win total for all of last season (8-21). More importantly, they have been in practically every game and are currently riding a four-game winning streak against the spread.
The Vandals have improved on both sides of the floor, hitting on 47.6 percent of their field goal attempts on offense including a very good 37.3 percent of their three-point attempt, and they are limiting opponents to 42.6 percent shooting on defense. They have even improved their play on the road this season, where they are 5-3 ATS.
The Aggies have lost two straight games, both here at home, and they have in fact now lost their last three games in their own building. Sure, they have outscored their home opponents by a whopping average of +12.2 points, but all of that damage came vs. weak non-conference opponents. New Mexico State has lost their two WAC home games by an average of 9.0 points.
Now the Aggies won all three head-to-head meetings between these schools last season including a win in the WAC Tournament, but Idaho has closed the talent gap greatly this year and may be in line for revenge.
Pick: Idaho +7.5
Chris Jordan
Boise State +9 at NEVADA
Love the Broncos plus the points in this WAC clash, as they should have no trouble staying inside the number in Reno and make this one interesting. Think about it this way, the Pack is 0-1 at home in WAC games thanks to a surprising 78-73 loss to Idaho on Jan. 3; so if the 8-8 Vandals are able to pull that off as a 12-point underdog, what do you think will take place when the 12-3 Broncos head into Lawlor Events Center?
The Broncos won and covered both meetings last season, and they catch a Reno team that is a mere 5-4 at home, and a dismal 1-6 ATS in those games.
Boise has covered four of the last five meetings and three of its last four trips to Reno.
Grab the points in the Biggest Little City in the World, as Boise gets it done.
5♦ BOISE STATE
Johnny Guild
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
Play on CAVALIERS
Take LeBron James and squad to grab their fourth straight victory against the struggling Bulls. Look for Chicago to struggle against Cleveland’s tough defensive play. Chicago has dropped seven of their last 11 games, 3-8 ATS and is 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 11-6 both straight-up and against the spread on the road.
Connecticut Huskies -11
Weber St. Wildcats -6.5
USC Trojans +1
Gina
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have played sound on their home court and have won and covered the spread in the last four contests versus the Suns at home. The home team have dominated in this series, 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread,13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Denver Nuggets -1˝
Greg Shaker
Pacific Tigers at Cal Irvine Anteaters
Play: Pacific -3.5
Note: Most of you already know me well enough to know that laying points on the road is something that I rarely do. So, when I do, you have to know that I like the game very much. There are a lot of reasons to like this one and specifically because the Tigers are the much better squad. They play much better than average D, and they take care of the ball. Those two things allow them to perform better on the road than most teams and the reason why they have a 4-2 mark in this situation. Irvine's season is not up to snuff and they are not going to have much of a homecourt advantage because of it. They have won but once here and that was an OT decision over a very average Fullerton team. This team has a lot of trouble stopping the opposition with 48% shooting allowed and much of that out on the perimiter where they don't have very good guard play. That is what the Tigers will bring to the table and they will work the ball for open shots all night. Pacific's only 2 road defeats were at Washington and at Cal, early in the season. The Anteaters do not pose nearly the same threat as those guys. We could easily see a runaway tonight here in Irvine and I would play this game up to -5. The line is on the rise right now so if you are going to play it, I would do it now.
Drew Gordon
Washington at OREGON +5
In the midst of an obvious rebuilding year, the young Ducks have struggled of late, losing 4 straight. However, let's not get too down on this Oregon team, especially at home, in arguablly their best chance at win since the New Year.
First off, we know coach Kent and his troops are desperate for a win, and a return home against a relatively road-weary Huskies defense is just what the doctor ordered for this Ducks team. They've faced 4 straight solid defenses (last two on the road no less), and now get a chance to play on friendly rims against a defense allowing opponents to shoot 46% from the floor on the road this season!
Seriously guys, what has Washington shown us on the road this season? They're just 1-2 SU in true road games, including a season opening loss at Portland, and a blowout loss at Kansas. True, they got an impressive outright win at rival Washington State in their last roadie, but let's not get too carried away based on one win. Fact is, the Ducks are a jump-shooting team that can put up points in a hurry (especially now back at home), and that style of ball is far more effective against Washington's D, than the Cougars methodical style.
Finally, two things bother me about Washington in this match up: A. The public is all over them, and that immediately sends up a red flag in my mind. And B. The home team is an outstanding 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings, and despite the Ducks struggles this season, I expect they'll play better returning home tonight. In the end, the Huskies likely win, but the Ducks collect the cash!
Take Oregon plus the points over Washington in this college hoops match up.
2♦ OREGON
Wunderdog
Xavier at Rhode Island
Pick: UNDER 151
Xavier is an A-10 team that has probably most resembled a Big East team over the last several years. They play gritty defense, and work the ball well on the offensive end. Rhode Island has had trouble with that type of team, as they like to run up-and-down the floor. Providence and Villanova put the clamps on that style and held the Rams to 65 points in both games. I see a similar situation facing them here. The X-men have held 10 of 14 teams to 66 or less. The Rams are now 4-0 to the UNDER against the good teams that have a winning percentage of .600 or higher. I like this one to fall short of the total and will back the UNDER.
John Ryan
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver -1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver as they host Phoenix slated to start at 10:35 on TNT – AiS shows a 75% probability that Denver will win this game by 3 or more points. They also have a 93% probability of scoring 105 or more points in this game. Note that Denver is already 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 90-49 ATS for 65% since 2002. Play against road teams after having won 3 of their last 4 games in a game involving two good teams sporting winning percentages of 60% to 75%. Denver is also in strong roles for this game noting they are 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is in several weak roles for this game noting that they are just ATS (-8.8 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season; 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
Xavier at Rhode Island
Play: Rhode Island
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Rhode Island as the host Xavier slated to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 71% probability that Rhode Island will win this game. They have strong fundamental rebounders and they will be able to keep the Xavier athleticism at bay and minimize their offensive rebounds and subsequent second chance opportunities. AiS shows an 85% probability that Xavier will not have more than 13 offensive rebounds. Note that Xavier is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-14 ATS for 74% since 2002. Play against any team hat is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% and is now facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% and after 15+ games and after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. Xavier is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Rhode Island.
Lockoftheday
Today's Lock: Suns/Nuggets Under 218.5
We'll make a wager on the Suns/Nuggets Under tonight in the NBA. Carmelo Anthony is injured and the Nuggets really miss his scoring. The trade for Chauncey Billups slowed down their offense. Phoenix rarely scores over 110. It will be an up hill climb to get this total over 218.5.
Gimme the loot.
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January 15th, 2009 05:50 PM #7
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