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January 16th, 2009 03:09 PM #1
The Hand of Justice
Friday Service Plays
SPORTS ADVISORS
New Orleans (23-12, 15-18-2 ATS) at Cleveland (30-7, 26-11 ATS)
The Cavaliers put the NBA’s last remaining unbeaten home record on the line tonight when the Hornets come into the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
LeBron James and crew have gone 19-0 SU and 15-4 ATS in front of the home fans this season and are looking for a little more home cooking after Thursday’s 102-93 overtime loss in Chicago as 7½-point favorites. The last time the Cavs were on their home court was a week ago tonight, when they crushed Boston 98-83 as a four-point home chalk.
New Orleans has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games (4-3 ATS) but did score a 104-97 victory in Dallas on Wednesday as a 4½-point favorite. Superstar point guard Chris Paul almost turned a quadruple-double against the Mavs, getting 33 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and seven steals. The Hornets are 11-7 (8-9-1 ATS) on the highway this season.
The Hornets have taken the last three in this series, including a 104-92 home win back on Nov. 1, covering as three-point favorites. New Orleans has gotten the cash in the last three and six of the last nine, but the Hornets are just 2-5 ATS in the last seven visits to Cleveland.
New Orleans has cashed in four of its last five against Central Division squads, but otherwise the Hornets are on ATS slides of 1-6 as a ‘dog, 2-12 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 0-4 against the Eastern Conference. Conversely, Cleveland is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 37-15 overall, 20-6 at home, 20-7 as a favorite, 9-1 against the Western Conference and 4-1 when playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
For the Hornets, the under is 16-5 in their last 21 when they get a day off, 5-1 in their last six against the Eastern Conference and 9-1 in their last 10 on Fridays, but the over is 4-0 in their last four on the highway. For the Cavs, the under is 5-2 in their last seven against the Western Conference and 5-1 in their last six on Fridays, but the over is 5-1 in their last six against the Southwest Division. In this rivalry, the over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings overall and 5-0-1 in the last six in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Orlando (31-8, 26-12-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (31-7, 18-20 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the NBA meet inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles as the Magic shoot for their sixth straight win overall and a season-series sweep of the Lakers.
Orlando has been lighting up the scoreboard lately, scoring 105 points or more in each of its last four games (4-0 ATS) and averaging 112 points a game and 50 percent shooting from the floor in its last five (4-1 ATS). The Magic destroyed Sacramento on Tuesday 139-107, making an NBA record 23 three-pointers, allowing them to easily cash as seven-point road favorites. Orlando is an NBA-best 15-5 on the highway (14-5-1 ATS).
The Lakers had a four-game winning streak (1-3 ATS) snapped Wednesday in San Antonio, falling 112-111 but cashing in as three-point underdogs. Los Angeles is 20-2 SU as a host this season but just 10-12 ATS, including three consecutive non-covers in their last three at Staples. The Lakers have scored 100 points or more in nine straight contests (5-4 ATS) and 32 of their 38 games this season, averaging 111.8. However, they’ve given up a whopping 108.4 points and 50.5 percent shooting in their last five outings.
These teams met Dec. 20 in Orlando with the Magic getting a 106-103 win as a 1½-point home ‘dog. The road team won both matchups last season, with Orlando scoring a 104-97 victory in Los Angeles as a one-point pup. The Magic have covered in three of the last four series clashes, and the road team has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, with the ‘dog going a perfect 5-0 ATS in those five.
Orlando has been a money-making machine lately, riding positive ATS trends that include 20-6 overall, 47-22-3 on the road, 53-26-3 as an underdog, 23-9-1 as a road ‘dog, 19-7-1 against Western Conference teams and 16-5 against teams from the Pacific Division. The Lakers are on ATS slides of 7-19 against the Eastern Conference, 0-6 against the Southeast Division, 3-11 after getting a day off and 1-4 as a favorite.
For the Magic, the over is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-1 as an underdog, 5-0 after a straight-up win and 6-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Lakers are on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 16-5 as a home favorite, 12-4 against the Eastern Conference, 17-8 on Fridays and 4-0 when returning from a day off. Finally, while the over has been the play in four of the last five series meetings between these squads, the under is 6-2 in the last eight battles in the Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and OVER
Jeff Benton
The incredible free-play run continued Thursday, as North Carolina (7♦) got back in the groove by blasting Virginia as predicted. That’s now three straight complimentary winners and 42 out of 61! On Friday, it’s all about the NBA, where I’m on a 9-2 freebie run, and we’ll take the points with the Hornets at Cleveland.
Call me crazy, but I believe the Cavaliers are way overdue for a prolonged slump, as they’ve been cruising along at an insane pace (thanks mostly to a schedule chockfull of weaklings). Did we see the beginning of the slippage last night in Chicago, where Cleveland lost 102-93 in overtime as an eight-point favorite, scoring just six points in the extra session? I think so. As a matter of fact, with that setback, the Cavs are just 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 4-5 ATS in their last nine.
Of course, LeBron and his posse continue to be the only team in the NBA still without a loss at home – the Cavs are 19-0 at Quicken Loans Arena and an even-more-astonishing 15-4 ATS. However, it’s not like the Hornets have been all that shabby on the road lately, going 9-5 in their last 14 on the highway, including strong wins at the Mavericks on Wednesday (104-97), as well as the Lakers (116-105) and Portland (92-77).
What’s more, Cleveland has had absolutely no answer for Chris Paul. lately. New Orleans swept the season series last year, winning 86-76 as a five-point home favorite and 100-99 as a 1½-point road underdog. Then back on Nov. 1, the Hornets handed the Cavs their first – and to this point, worst – defeat of the season, a 104-92 setback, with New Orleans cashing as a three-point home favorite. In the three games, Paul had point totals of 24, 15 and 20, as well as 15, 20 and nine assists!
Bottom line: The NBA is all about matchups, and sometimes, certain teams matchup better (or worse) against a particular opponent, and I think this is one such instance. Give me the generous points with New Orleans, which had the added benefit of a day off Thursday while the Cavs were losing at Chicago.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Detroit at OKLAHOMA CITY +4
The Pistons enter tonight's play mired in a 3-game slide both straight up, and against the spread, and the way they closed their last loss at home against Charlotte leads us to believe they are going to struggle on the road tonight at Oklahoma City.
The Thunder has been playing some scrappy ball of late, splitting their last 4 straight up, and covering in all 4, and Okie City is currently on a 21-6 spread run their last 27 games, covering their last 8 when getting points in their building!
Tough numbers to overlook, and remember in the teams first meeting this season, Detroit needed an Iverson game-winner with 0.2 showing on the clock to escape at the Auburn Palace.
Oklahoma City has covered the last 3 series meetings, and 4 of the last 5, and they cover again tonight.
Play on the Thunder plus the points.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Bobby Maxwell
New Orleans at CLEVELAND -5'
The Cavs are glad to get back home after the ugly loss in Chicago on Thursday night. They love the home-cooking in Cleveland where they are a perfect 19-0 this season and tonight they welcome in the Hornets who have been just mediocre lately.
Cleveland lost 102-93 on Thursday night in the Windy City, falling as a 7 1/2-point favorite. But look back at the last time they got to play in front of the home fans and they dominated the Celtics 98-83 as a four-point home favorite.
LeBron James and company have been tough to stop at home and they are 20-6 ATS in the last 26 in Cleveland. They are on other ATS run of 37-15 overall, 20-7 as a favorite, 9-1 against the Western conference and 4-1 on the second night of back-to-backs.
New Orleans has alternated wins and losses in their last seven games and they are on ATS slides of 1-6 as an underdog, 2-12 as an underdog of 5 to 10 1/2 points and 0-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference.
Let's play the home team Cavs to get healthy after Thursday's loss. Cleveland gets the win and cover tonight.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Karl Garrett
Minnesota +7' at PHOENIX
Tonight in the NBA, I will saddle up, and ride the underdog Timberwolves plus the points at Phoenix.
The Suns are in a tough spot, as they were on court Tuesday night at home against Atlanta, and did just play on the road last night at Denver.
Phoenix is only 6-13 against the spread at home this year, and the chances they are a little bit tired for this game before they head to Canada on Sunday to face the Raptors are pretty good.
Minnesota just had their season-high 5-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday, so they should be well rested when they hit the floor tonight.
The Timberwolves are also 11-6 against the spread on the road this season, and I will back them plus the points tonight to keep things close.
Take Minny plus the points.
5♦ MINNESOTA
Cajun Sports CBB
Wright State Raiders -4 vs. Detroit Titans
PLAY: 2* Wright State -4
Calihan Hall will be the site of tonights Horizon League showdown between the host Detroit Titans and the visiting Wright State Raiders. Detroit is not only in a rebuilding year they also have a new head coach and their record certainly reflects those issues as they come into tonights match up with a 4-11 SU record on the season. Wright State is 9-8 SU on the year so far and look to capture winner number 10 in Detroit tonight.
The Titans have continued to struggle going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over their last five games averaging 56 points per game and allowing 61 points per game. Conference play has certainly been a huge problem for the Titans as they have been almost two seasons without a conference win. They are currently 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS in conference play this year averaging 53.5 points per game and allowing 63.2 points per game.
Wright State hopes to keep Detroits losing streak intact with a win over the Titans on Friday night. The Raiders have posted a 4-1 SU record their last five games and have cashed three of those five against the spread. Over that span the Raiders have averaged 60 points per game while only allowing 54.8 points per game. Wright State has covered the number their last four trips to Calihan Hall.
Both teams play at a slow pace with Wright States tempo rating at 62 and Detroit at 64. The key here are their efficiency ratings which has Wright State with a 96.3 and Detroit ranks 305th in the nation with a rating of 89.9 on offense. Wright State ranks 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency with a rating of 88.6 compared to Detroits rating of 100.2. Wright State will make their trips down the floor count and this should be the difference in the game.
Detroits slow tempo will hurt them in tonights contest as the Raiders are 10-1 ATS versus teams averaging 53 or less shots per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Wright State is also 10-2 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds per game on the season after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 1-9 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Titans are 6-17 ATS in home games versus teams averaging 53 or less shots per game since 1997.
Wright State is 7-0 ATS in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Wright State is 19-7 ATS after allowing 50 points or less since 1997 and 6-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season. Detroit is 11-26 ATS after a conference game over the last 3 seasons. The Titans are 8-18 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Finally we have a CBB system that tells us to Play Against CBB home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after scoring 60 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less, 40-15 ATS the last five seasons.
We will back the better team here as Wright State gets the win and cover for us on Friday night.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Wright State 62 Detroit 51
James Patrick Sports
Loyola Maryland vs. Manhattan
In Friday College Basketball action we take a look at the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference clash between Manhattan and Loyola Maryland. This series has gone Over the Total in 7 of 9 contests and our Friday Night selection is Greyhounds and Jaspers to fly Over the Total.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Detroit Titans
The Titans host the Raiders in a rare Friday night Horizon League game with triple revenge on their minds from a trio of losses suffered last year in this series. That's good news for Titan fans considering they are 4-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge from three loses the previous season. With Wright State having covered in only 4 of their last 16 tries as road chalk, we'll grab the points with Detroit here tonight.
Gimme the loot.
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January 16th, 2009 03:11 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
Dave Cokin
Knicks @ Wizards
Play: Knicks +1'
Quick revenge for Washington, which is the explanation as to why this pathetic Wizards squad is actually favored in a game. I don't buy that as enough reason to back a team that just doesn't have the horses. The Knicks are no great shakes, obviously, but they're the better team here and I believe they will be able to force the tempo again, just as they did the other night at MSG. That game was pretty close and this should be as well, but look for the Knicks to complete the sweep.
Brad Diamond
Play on: Milwaukee over Sacramento
Don't know how the Kings can survive in a win situation after winning and covering on the road the other night in three extra sessions? Yes, the day of rest will help, but the emotion of such an encounter can have mental and physical disadvantages in their very next set. Remember, Milwaukee is 6-0 ATS as chalk in this range, while the inconsistent Kings show at 5-16 ATS versus the Eastern Conference. Plus, the Bucks are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss and 13-3 ATS against poor teams (Class D). With the road units firing at 4 of 5 ATS in the series, I'll check-in with the Green Bucks!
Jimmy The Moose
Toronto Maple Leafs at Atlanta Thrashers
Prediction: Over
Toronto played last night in Carolina and the game easily played the over as the team's combined for 10 goals. The over is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 games played on the tail end of a back-to-back. The over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games vs. team's from the Southeast. The over is 13-5 in Atlanta's last 18 games played with 1 day rest between action. The over is 9-3 in their last 12 meetings vs. a team from the Norteast Division. The three meetings between the clubs this season have all played the over and this one will follow suit. Play the over.
Brian Hansen
New York Rangers at Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is one of the best teams in the league and is coming off a 4-1 victory over the Sabres and I look for them to keep that momentum rolling tonight in front of the home town crowd! The Rangers are 0-1 after playing to 3 or more consecutive unders while the 'Hawks are a great 13-7 their last 20 after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game; play on CHICAGO!
JIM FEIST
MILWAUKEE BUCKS / SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Despite a losing overall mark, the Milwaukee Bucks are outscoring opponents, plus playing better, winning 10 of the last 17 games. They have a powerful offense behind Michael Redd, and Center Andruw Bogut returned to the lineup this week, with 11 rebounds the last game. Sacramento is on a 5-8 spread run, and has lost 14 of the last 18 games. How much energy will the Kings have left after that triple overtime win over Golden State? This is a soft defensive teams that the Bucks will be able to score inside and out on. Play the Milwaukee Bucks.
John Ryan
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Sacramento Kings as they host Milwaukee slated to start at 10:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 52-28 ATS for 65% since 2002. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days and is a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team. Milwaukee in a series of poor roles for this game noting they are 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Kings are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Kings.
Dwayne Bryant
Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5
Great spot for "King James" and the Cavs. The Hornets are coming off a big road win over division-rival Dallas. Cleveland lost in OT last night in Chicago, which was just their seventh loss of the season. LeBron shot just 8-for-28 from the field last night, so I expect a big bounce-back game from him. The previous six times the Cavs lost SU this season, they bounced back in huge fashion. The Cavs are 6-0 SU and ATS this season in the game following a SU loss, with victories by 17, 19, 14, 23, 25, and 30 points. So losing is obviously a great motivator for this team. Also note that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Hornets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
Cleveland is a perfect 19-0 SU and 15-4 ATS at home this season. They did lose to these Hornets earlier this season in New Orleans and the Cavs have dropped three straight in this series. That should only add to the Cavs' motivation, not to mention that the game will be nationally televised on ESPN. I can't imagine the Cavs being much more motivated and focused than they will be tonight (playing on national TV with revenge off a loss).
The Hornets are:
1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog
1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win
The Cavaliers are:
6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .60011-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scored 100 points or more in their previous game
Take the Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5
JOHNNY GUILD
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers
Orlando plays the LA Lakers tough and the dog in this series has covered the spread in the last five clashes. Take the Magic in a close battle. Los Angeles is 20-2 at home this season, but has been unprofitable, just 10-12 ATS. Meanwhile, Orlando has been a lucrative road bet. The Magic are 15-5 away from home this season, going 14-5-1 ATS and are 10-2 ATS in its last 12 on the road. Take the Magic in a close battle.
Orlando Magic +4
NCAAB
Brown Bears -4
Lockoftheday
Today's Lock: Orlando Magic +4.5
Another easy winner last night, ruined by overtime. Our second this week.The Lakers have trouble with certain Eastern Conference opponents. Orlando a playing very well, and shooting the basketball very well. Dwight Howard is a strong inside presence. The Lakers will have their hands full with the Orlando team. We'll bet the underdog tonight.
Nostradamus
Oklahoma City +3.5
Lakers -4.5
Bryan Leonard
New Orleans Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Under
The Hornets enter this game well rested having only played three games in the last seven days. The Hornets have the ability to adjust to style of play while continuing to have success. They are willing to run with the Lakers and Nuggets of the league while grinding it out with the Cavaliers and Magic. Tonight they take on a tired and shorthanded Cleveland team who was forced to overtime last night in Chicago.
The Cavs are in bad shape tonight. Not only did they have to play extended minutes last night on the road, but injuries are starting to take a toll. Delonte West suffered a wrist injury last night and he is expected out for two to three weeks. The team is already playing without "Big Z" as the starting center tries to return from another foot injury. Last night both Wallace and King James were suffering from the flu with Big Ben not even taking the floor. LeBron talked about not having enough lift on his shot as well as the lack of energy needed to play like he normally plays.
Because of the Cavalier's situation we expect Cleveland to take the air out of the ball and limit possessions. And New Orleans will be happy to play that type of ball. The last two slow down defensive teams they played on the road were Portland and Orlando and those games combined for 169 and 156 points. Look for this game to stay well under the posted total.
PLAY UNDER
Alex Smart
Wright State @ Detroit
PICK: Wright State
Wright State(9-8) and Detroit(4-11) two Horizon League teams that play similar styles of basketball prepare to go head to head tonight in the Motor City.
Both teams take a very conservative slow -down approach to each game, via a system that centers around ball control, and precise inside shooting. Both defenses, have been staunch to say the least, with the Raiders allowing just 56.6 PPG overall, while the Titans have given up an average of just 57 PPG in 5 home games this season.
The difference maker in this matchup comes down to who can convert more consistently in the offensive zone. The answer in my humble opinion is obvious. The Titans have failed to score more than 50 points in 3 straight games, and in their L/8 games have only eclipsed the 51 point plateau twice. The Raiders might not be an offensive juggernaut, averaging just 58 PPG, but they have a knack of controlling the tempo of most tilts, behind a athletic back court((Vaughn Duggins , Todd Brown) , and a knack for sinking buckets in key situations as was the case in a recent tilt against Cleveland State in a 71-62 win.
Considering the offensive matcup deficiencies I am recommending we lay the points with Wright State .
Projected score: Wright State 58 Detroit 50
Gimme the loot.
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January 16th, 2009 03:12 PM #3
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January 16th, 2009 03:12 PM #4
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January 16th, 2009 03:37 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
KEVIN ROGERS
Magic at Lakers
Pick: Magic +4
The Magic have been money all season ATS, compiling a 26-12-1 record, while going 8-1 ATS as an underdog, as Orlando goes for the season sweep of the Lakers tonight at Staples Center. Orlando held off L.A., 106-103, at Amway Arena in mid-December, coming in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. The Lakers fell at San Antonio on Wednesday, and are just 1-5 ATS following a loss, and 7-12 ATS L19 at home. The dog has covered the last five in this series, and I see that trend continuing tonight, as I'll take the points with the Magic.
Beat Your Bookie
100* Play Detroit (+4) over Wright State
Wright State is 0-2 SU & ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points
Wright State is 1-5 ATS when playing on a Friday Night
Wright State is 0-4 ATS when playing 2nd game in 8 days
Gimme the loot.
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January 16th, 2009 05:01 PM #6
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