Sunday Service Plays

[SteveJanus]

Carlo Campanella Guaranteed Pick

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is playing awesome football right now, winning 3 games in a row while scoring 30 points or more the last 3 games, including Playoff wins over Atlanta 30-24 and Carolina 33-13. They now return home where they're 7-2 this season and averaging 30.2 points per game! The offense is lead by QB Kurt Warner and RB James, both who have Super Bowl rings- Combine that postseason experience with home field advantage and the WRONG TEAM is favored. They host a Philadelphia squad that was 5-5-1 after 11 games this year and are just 5-4-1 on the road, which isn't very good considering they were road Favorites in 6 of those 10 games! Take the points as these Eagles make their 3rd straight road trip and face a hot team that knows how to win at home and will use their "Dog Status" as motivation for a Super Bowl berth.10* Play On Arizona


Brandon Lang

50 Dime Steelers

15 Dime Cardinals

FREE - Eagles/Cardinals Under


SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING THE POINT SPREADS - in these two games, we want to make sure we're laying just -6 points with Pittsburgh and getting 3-1/2 with Arizona. If your book has anything different, I am advising you to purchase the 1/2 point to your advantage, whichever way that may be - down with the Steelers and up for the Cardinals


Lenny Del Genio

Conference Championship GOY

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
Play: Baltimore +6

We cashed the Ravens as our AFC Playoff GOY last week and will back them again this week as our #1 Conference Championship Play for many of the same reasons. Namely, they are getting points in a game where there will not be a lot of scoring.Granted, Pittsburgh matches up better with Baltimore (beat them twice during the regular season) than did the Titans, but were getting more points this week! The Steelers point differential of +8 PPG this year is skewed because of four games against Cleveland and Cincinnati where they outscored the opposition by a combined 106-26.Six of their wins came by a touchdown or less. Turnovers win playoff games and no one takes the ball away more from their opponents than the Ravens, who have 21 INT's in their last 10 games. Steelers QB Roethlisberger threw 11 picks during the regular season and has offensive line issues. Joe Flacco actually had a better QB rating. Pittsburgh dropped from 3rd to 23rd in rushing rank from last year while the Ravens now average nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. Both Steelers wins over the Ravens came in comeback fashion and easily could have gone the other way. Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS after scoring 35+ points in their last game. Baltimore has covered seven of eight road games and eight of nine conference games. They are 9-0 ATS all-time off a road win by three points or less. Pittsburgh went just 5-4 ATS at Heinz Field this year. Our revenge angle is in play here (both teams must have win percentage of .600 to .750) and moves to 23-5 ATS if the revenger scored nine or less points in the loss. Finally, we note that non-#1 seeds have lost outright five times in eight opportunities (2-6 ATS) since the playoff format was realigned. Baltimore is our Conference Championship Game of the Year.


SIXTH SENSE

Opinons

Philadelphia –4 ARIZONA 47

Arizona won easily at Carolina last week, 33-13, but they were out gained in the game 5.3yppl to 4.7yppl. Carolina out rushed Arizona 5.0ypr to 3.4ypr but were out passed 6.5yps to 5.4yps. While both teams threw the ball about the same amount Arizona ran the ball 43 times, which held their overall yppl numbers down. Philly won at the Giants but they were also out gained, 5.0yppl to 4.1yppl, including being out rushed 4.3ypr to 2.1ypr and out passed 5.8yps to 5.4yps. Philly averages 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl and Arizona allows 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. That means Philly is about 0.3yppl better than Arizona on offense. Arizona averages 7.1yps against 6.2yps (regular season stats) and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Philly allows just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. That means Philly is about 0.1yppl better when Arizona has the ball. Overall, this means Philly is probably 0.4yppl better before factoring in home field advantage for Arizona. Numbers favor Philly by 3.5 points and predict about 57 points. But, when I run a profile match up I get Philly by two to three points depending on how I round it off but a projection of just 44 points.

Philly qualifies in a negative playoff situation, which is 41-17-4 and plays against them here. That situation, however, it 0-3 this year and Philly has now bucked it twice in the playoffs. Philly, however, qualifies in a Conference Championship game situation, which is 49-24-2 and plays on the better defense. My numbers lean towards Arizona but I feel Philadelphia is the better team, making it hard for me to pull the trigger on either team. PHILADELPHIA 24 ARIZONA 21

PITTSBURGH –6 Baltimore 34

Baltimore escaped with a win last week but they were thoroughly dominated in their game. Tennessee out gained the Ravens 5.5yppl to 4.1yppl, including out rushing them 4.1ypr to 1.7ypr. Baltimore out passed Tennessee 7.3yps to 6.4yps. Three crucial Tennessee turnovers did them in. Pittsburgh defeated SD and out were out gained 5.7yppl to 4.9yppl. They out rushed SD 3.9ypr to 1.3ypr but were out passed 7.1yps to 6.3yps. SD threw 11 more passes and Pittsburgh rushed the ball 30 more times than SD, which helped to skew the overall final numbers a bit. Baltimore averages 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl, while Pittsburgh allows just 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.3yps against 5.9yps and 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. When Baltimore has the ball, Pittsburgh has a 1.3yppl advantage. Pittsburgh averages 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Baltimore allows just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. When Pittsburgh has the ball, Baltimore has a 0.7yppl advantage. Overall Pittsburgh carries a 0.6yppl advantage. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by three points and predict about 38 points. When I use a profile match up I get a predicted tie and 34 points projected.

Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing playoff situation, which is 49-13-3 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a Conference Championship game situation, which is 49-24-2 and plays on the better defense. When those two situations come across each other the better defensive system is 4-2 ATS. Pittsburgh won at home, in OT, by three points in their first match up and won the rematch in Baltimore by four points with a late controversial score. But, they dominated both games from the line of scrimmage, 4.4yppl to 3.6yppl and 4.6yppl to 3.3yppl.

In the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh is now 26-0 SU during the regular season when they are favored by five points or more at home. Twenty one of those twenty six games produced wins of nine points or more. They are 19-6-1 ATS during that span. In other words, when they are supposed to win, they do so in convincing fashion. During that time they are also 10-2 ATS against teams at .500 or better. One of those losses against the spread came earlier this year against Baltimore when they won by three points as a 5.5 point favorite. I will lean towards Pittsburgh in this game but am not ready to make them a Best Bet yet. PITTSBURGH 23 BALTIMORE 13


Spylock

Philadelphia 1 unit

Baltimore 1 unit


Allen Eastman

$2500.00 Philadelphia (-4) over Arizona

I’m going to stay on Philadelphia’s bandwagon and I just think that Donovan McNabb is playing better than any quarterback left in the postseason. Philadelphia already hammered Arizona once this year, winning 48-20 earlier this year in Philly. They won that game because they are just that much better than the Cardinals and will win again here for the same reason. Arizona has been a great story, but I don’t think that they have three consecutive outright wins as an underdog in them. Their defense has played pretty well, but they still gave up 24 points to Atlanta at home and gave up some decent drives to the Panthers before Carolina shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. Philadelphia has the experience and they have owned Arizona, historically. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The points won’t matter in this one.


$2000.00 Baltimore (+6) over Pittsburgh

We’ve been riding the Ravens so why stop now? Baltimore lost both of the previous games by a combined seven points so I think that six points is too many here in a game that the Ravens will win outright. The Ravens defense has the look of the 2000 championship unit and I think that they are just too tough to beat three times in one season. Pittsburgh has lost three straight home conference championship games, falling to New England in 2005, 2002, and Denver in 1998. I think they come up short once again. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in road playoff games, 7-3 ATS in all playoff games, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games straight up against the Steelers.

$300.00 TEASER: Take Baltimore (+16), ‘Under’ 44.0 Baltimore at Pittsburgh, and ‘Over’ 37.0 Philadelphia at Arizona


Al DeMarco

15 Dimes Pitt


Billy Coleman

4* Pittsburgh


RON RAYMOND

5* NFL BEST BET PICK OF THE WEEKEND

Baltimore Ravens +6


Kevin Kavitch

Weather won't be prohibitive and there's no shortage of ways teams can combine for more than 34 points, even with exceptional defences. Championship round games have rarely finished with less than 34 as both teams do everything possible for 60 minutes to make it to the big game. Big time players stepping up plus big mistakes with added pressure by others, much like Super Bowls. The defenses should make big plays on both sides but that could very easily easily lead to short fields for the offences. Pittsburgh's history of home Overs in recent years also is favorable. Playing the odds, I think that 6 out of 10 times this kind of matchup and situation would produce higher than 34 points. Play Over 34 for a 3* Regular Play.


I'm back on Baltimore again. They're 11-2 SU and ATS since Flacco began to get some games under his belt and I like the way he handles pressure. The Baltimore D gives them a chance to win any game outright and they played Pittsburgh down to the wire in both meetings this season. They may have been fortunate to get turnovers versus Tennessee but give them full marks for forcing them. Pittsburgh got blown out recently by that same Tennessee squad and Baltimore will not be intimidated by the Steelers. Plus I think Baltimore will be the hungrier team with Pittsburgh winning it all recently. Like I've mentioned earlier in the playoffs, Baltimore is my Super Bowl darkhorse and I still feel that way. I'll take the 6 points and an outright upset would not shock me. Take Baltimore +6 for a 3* Regular Play.


I see alot of touts spouting off about the Week 13 48-20 drubbing the Eagles hung on the Cardinals. So let's start there. To put it in perspective, the Eagles had an extreme motivational edge. They were off a tie vs the lowly Bengals followed by a blowout loss vs Baltimore in the McNabb "benching" game. Arizona had all but formally clinched their division and no shock that they came out flat on the road, hammered by the talented and pissed off Eagles. I'm not putting much stock in that game. Philly has played well and deserves to be here. But the Cards are being underestimated again. We picked up a win with them vs the Falcons but last week I passed on them as big road dogs vs a quality Carolina squad. Let me tell you, that was one of the most impressive performances I've seen from a team in that kind of position, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I've seen enough to know they should not be home underdogs of more than a FG, especially with Boldin looking better to contribute this week. Arizona has been a longtime doormat, very similar to the Bucanneers when they shockingly won it all in 2002. Add that the Cards were being touted by some as the "worst team to ever make the NFL playoffs". The players commented on that. Pride and motivation can add up to very strong performances and has again in this case. Being at home definitely will add fuel to the fire. Playing with confidence, defensive improvements, and a veteran QB playing at a high level the Cards have a puncher's chance vs anyone right now. I'll take more than a FG with the home dog Cardinals. Take Arizona +3.5 for a 3* Regular play.


Steve Budin

25 Dime Pitt


ATS Sports Club

NFC Championship Game Total Winner

Eagles / Cardinals Over 47


NFC Championship Game Side Winner

Arizona Cardinals +4


ATS Lock Club
3 units Cards +3.5
3 units Ravens +6
5 units S.Illinois -5.5
4 units Minn +1.5

ATS Financial Package
3 units Cards +3.5
3 units Ravens +6
3 units Georgia +7.5

[SteveJanus]

BettorsWorld

3* Ravens +6 over Steelers

You've heard the saying, "there's more than one way to skin a cat". Well, there's more than one way to get a number on a football game. We use two primary methods to come up with a number on games. One, is the standard power rating. Power Ratings are adjusted each week to reflect a teams current performance and serve to provide a handicapper with a rough number on the actual point difference between two teams. We have kept our own football numbers for many years, but there are also a ton of other well known and very good ratings published for free on the net. Far too many to name but most do a very good job. The other method we use to get a number is the yards per point figure which you have seen us refer to often. This number can be used in many ways. You can take season to date, last 5 games, home and away, common opponents and so on.

Getting a number is a starting point. There's a saying in sports handicapping, "you need a number to beat a number". You need to take the guesswork out of it. There's always variables to consider, such as, weather, a teams state of mind, home field advantage and so on. But your own number is essential as a starting point. When using these various methods to get a number on this game, the end result is unanimous.........it all comes back Baltimore.

We have mentioned since the end of the regular season that Baltimore was putting up some numbers comparable to past Super Bowl teams, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. So it's no surprise to us that they are here in the AFC title game. Many say they were outplayed by the Titans, that the Titans gave the game away with costly turnovers. That's only partially correct. Turnovers are created. They are created by pressure, by hard hitting, by aggressively getting after the ball. The Titans didn't give the game away. The Ravens went out and did what they do best. The Ravens TOOK the game away. Also worth noting is the fact that the Steelers played the very same Titans in a meaningful game towards seasons end, and came up empty to the tune of 31-14.

As mentioned, we used the methods described above to come up with a number, or numbers on this game. The power ratings, both our own and another well known rating come back with the Steelers by less than a field goal. When we break it down using yards per point using just the last 6 games for both teams, our number is Baltimore by 4. Using yards per point home numbers for the Steelers and away numbers for the Ravens, we come up with pick. Using both teams entire season to date, the yards per point number on the game is also pick. Every method we use, and every time frame we consider, it all comes back Steelers by a field goal or less. Or in the case of yards per point using the last 6 games, a straight up Ravens win.

You can also use the two games these two teams played against each other in making a case for the Ravens. After all, they played an overtime game earlier in the year, and then a game in December in which the Steelers won it on the final drive of the game. The Steelers had to come from behind to win in both games. In the game earlier in the year, it was a fairly even game statistically. The Steelers won the stat battle in the December game, but again, it took a score on the final drive, a controversial one at that, to win it.

It's not rocket science. Defense will be the name of the game this Sunday. Both teams will have trouble moving the ball. The game, like so many others, will be decided by mistakes, penalties, turnovers. The Ravens are on a roll. They have been putting up Super Bowl like numbers for the last half of the year. These teams are very familiar with each other. There's no reason this game, like the two previous, doesn't come down to the 4th quarter, perhaps the last drive, perhaps overtime. When you handicap games, you look for a slight edge when comparing your number with the actual number. We have that here across the board. We will gladly take +6 here in this spot. Presented with this exact same situation 100 times, you will win 55 times or more. That's enough to provide us with a long term profit. We may win, or lose, this particular play, but long term, it's a winner. So, we play. 3* Ravens +6 over Steelers


Vegas Sports Informer

Take First Half: ‘Over’ 23.5 Philadelphia at Arizona

We should see some points in this game and if I'm Arizona you would want to score quick and often in the first half. Arizona gets this game at home were they average 30.2 points per game and I see the fireworks popping early and often in this one.


Wunderdog

Philadelphia at Arizona
Pick: UNDER 47

The Eagles, who were left for dead after a 10-3 loss to the Redskins in week 16, have certainly come together at the right time. Brian Westbrook is struggling, however. McNabb has picked up the slack but without a strong running game, it may be hard for this team to put up a lot of points. The good news for the Eagles is that their defense is playing very well. They have not allowed any opponent to score more than 14 points in the last six weeks. The Cards are another team peaking at the right time. They wrapped up their division early with a 7-3 record. They then seemed to lose interest and finished the regular season on a 2-4 run. However, they have won two straight to get the right to host this game. Larry Fitzgerald went off last week against Carolina as the Cardinals put up 33 points. But, don't expect the Eagles to allow that to happen. This defense is especially adept at blitzing and should put pressure on Warner, keeping the Arizona offense from going crazy. This will be the best defense that Arizona has faced in a while. And, Arizona's defense has held two potent offenses to an average of 18.5 ppg the past two weeks. The Eagles are 16-7 UNDER the past two seasons as a favorite. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 24-12 to the UNDER as a road favorite and 20-10 UNDER vs. teams that average 24+ ppg allowed. I like this game to go UNDER. My computer matchup for this game has the Eagles winning by exactly the pointspread amount (4 points).


Masterbets

Bet on the Eagles/Cardinals UNDER for total points

The number for this game is being bet down by Vegas wiseguys, and we think the money needs to be respected. The line opened at 49.5 points, and some were thinking of taking the Over based on the fact that these two teams combined for 68 points when they met earlier this season. But the line has instead dropped to 47 points.

Our database suggests that 45.5 points is the correct number here and so there is some value in taking a small wager on the Under. The reason is that both teams are playing excellent defense right now. The Cardinals won their game with defense at the Panthers forcing mutliple turnovers. The Eagles have one of the toughest D's in football, with great schemes that could stifle Arizona's passing game. Take the UNDER here.


Dennis Hill

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play:Over 34

Look for this to be an all out war but with more points scored than most people think. Both teams have play more overs than unders this year. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 11 of their last 13 playoff games, and also have gone over the total in 12 of their last 16 games vs. AFC Teams.




Carlo Campanella

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Over


These teams meet for the 3rd time this season on Sunday, with Pittsburgh winning both of the first two meetings, 23-20 at home and 13-9 in Baltimore. While the Steelers covered the spread in each of first two meetings, the Total split, paying on one "Under" and on the "Over" at Pittsburgh. That "Over" marked the 3rd straight game in this series played in Pitt that has gone "Over" the Total, improving the "Over" to 9-4 (Over-Under) during the last 13 games hosted by the Steelers. WIth the cold and winter-like weather conditions combined with the Ravens stingy defensive play this year, Oddsmakers have posted a very low Total for an NFL Playoff game. Pittsburgh has now gone "Over" in 15 of their last 20 games hosting AFC teams and these Division rivals know each other well to score points on the board in this AFC Championship battle.

7* Play On OVER


Cajun Sports

Kentucky Wildcats -7.5 vs. Georgia Bulldogs
PLAY: 2* Kentucky Wildcats -7.5

Stegeman Coliseum will be the site of todays SEC clash between the host Georgia Bulldogs and the visiting Kentucky Wildcats. Georgia is 9-8 SU and 6-5 ATS on the season while the Kentucky Wildcats are 13-4 SU and 8-3 ATS.

Kentucky is coming off a huge road win over Tennessee on Tuesday night, 90 to 72. In that game Wildcat guard Jodie Meeks had 54 points on 15 of 22 shooting, he was 10 of 15 from behind the arc and a perfect 14 of 14 at the charity stripe. He leads the Cats averaging 25.9 points per game this season. That win and performance has the ability to not only help build momentum but it absolutely builds confidence in these youngsters and should carry over in conference play tonight.

Its possible for teams to be in for a letdown or come out flat after a win over a conference rival but the Wildcats have proven to be a team that responds well in this situation. They are 75-49 ATS in road games after a conference game since 1997 and 56-36 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1997. Kentucky Head Coach Gillespie is 67-40 ATS after a conference game in all games he has coached since 1997 and 14-5 ATS against conference opponents as the coach of Kentucky.

The Wildcats are averaging 80.8 points per game in conference competition this season against teams that allow only 70.6 points per game. Defensively the Cats are allowing 66.0 points per game versus teams that average 73.5 points per game. The Wildcats have a significant advantage on both ends of the floor. They are averaging 50.2 percent from the field, 47.0 percent from behind the arc and 84.4 percent from the charity stripe when playing on the road this season.

The Bulldogs are coming off a road loss at Vanderbilt, 50 to 40 on Wednesday night in Nashville. Georgia is 0-2 in conference play this season averaging 58.5 points per game versus teams that normally allow 66.7 points per game. Georgia is shooting 46 percent from the field and 37.6 percent from the three-point line. The Dawgs have allowed an average of 68.0 points per game almost ten more points per game than they average scoring, knowing that its no surprise they are 0-2 in conference play.

Kentucky has an effective FG percentage of 56.4 which is fifth in the nation while Georgias FG percentage is 47.4 percent which ranks 217th in the nation. The Wildcats defensive effective FG percentage is 42.5 percent which is 9th in the nation and the Bulldogs have a defensive FG percentage of 45.0 which ranks 54th in the nation. Kentucky has the edge in every critical category and should be able to get another conference road win in Athens on Sunday.

On the technical front we know that Kentucky is 14-3 ATS after winning their last three games against the spread and are now installed as a conference favorite. Play On College Basketball Teams after going over in their last game and are now installed as a division road favorite, 40-22 ATS. Play Against CBB Teams after winning ATS and going under in their last game and now face a division foe and are a home underdog, 23-41-2 ATS. Play Against CBB teams after losing SU, winning ATS and going under in their last game if they are now a division home underdog, 6-21-1 ATS.

With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the visitor here as the Wildcats knockoff another conference foe and cash the ticket for us on Sunday.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Kentucky Wildcats 76 Georgia Bulldogs 63


Marc Lawrence

Play On: Oklahoma City

Fatigue can often become an ally when handicapping games, especially in the NBA. For Miami the Heat concludes a draining 7-game (in eleven days) West Coast road swing here this afternoon when they take on the lowly Thunder after visiting Houston last night. One thing is clear for Miami, under first year head coach Erik Spoelstra, they have played to the level of competition going 5-1 ATS against .666 or greater opponents but just 11-20 ATS against sub .666 foes. Hence, they are only 5-11 ATS as favorites this season. While OKC is struggling in the standings, theyve been a solid moneymaker in the spread wars going 22-13-2 ATS as a dog, including 11-6-1 ATS when taking points from Eastern Conference clubs. You know what to do here. Take the points with the Thunder.


SPORTS MEMO

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
PHILADELPHIA AT ARIZONA +3 O/U 47
Recommendation: Arizona

Situational - Arizona returns home after winning the NFC West and Philadelphia making the playoffs by way of the Wild Card. Fundamentals - Arizona’s stigma of having a soft defense and being one-dimensional on offense hasn’t held true through two postseason games. The Cardinals held Atlanta’s vaunted run game to 65 yards and Carolina to 75. They had just 13 INTs during the regular season but seven over the last two weeks. Overall, this looks like a team that is finally maximizing its talent after coasting through much of the regular season playing in the weak NFC West. Philadelphia shut down the passing games of Minnesota and the Giants. The key looks to be keeping Kurt Warner on his feet. The veteran has been sacked just once in two postseason games and with weather not an issue, we expect Arizona to have success through the air. Game Notes - Arizona is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season. Both of their home losses ironically came against Minnesota and the NY Giants. Edgerrin James’ top four games in terms of carries resulted in Arizona going 4-0 SU and ATS. Two of those efforts came in the playoffs. When he fails to get 10 carries, the Cardinals are 4-6 SU. Final Take - With a strong home field advantage and catching a field goal -- potentially +3.5 or +4 by game time -- we’ll ignore the home woes for playoff teams and back the Cardinals.


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH -6 O/U 33.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh

Situational - The Ravens will be looking for their third consecutive road win in the playoffs. They will also be searching for their first win in three tries against division rival Pittsburgh. Fundamentals - In four games against Pittsburgh and Tennessee, Joe Flacco completed just 51.8% of his passes. In both playoff games, he continues to struggle, failing to throw a passing touchdown. The story has been the Ravens’ +7 turnover margin in the playoffs. Without those takeaways, Baltimore would have lost to Tennessee and won’t have a shot against Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished the season ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in every key defensive category and we look for another strong effort against a suspect Ravens’ offense. Game Notes - The Ravens may be without three starters on the defensive side as Terrell Suggs (shoulder), Samari Rolle (groin) and Jim Leonhard (concussion) are listed as questionable on the early reports. Final Take - After watching Tennessee and Miami move the ball with relative ease we question whether the Ravens’ defense is truly on par with Pittsburgh. We know the Steelers have proven commodities on the offensive end with Big Ben and Hines Ward. The same cannot be said for Joe Flacco and company. We’ll call for the luck to run out for Baltimore in the turnover category and for Pittsburgh to comfortably move on to the Super Bowl.

[SteveJanus]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Philadelphia (11-6-1, 12-6 ATS) at Arizona (11-7 SU and ATS)

The Eagles and the Cardinals – two teams that carried the worst regular-season records among the six NFC playoff contestants – meet for the second time this season, this time at University of Phoenix Stadium for a berth in the Super Bowl.

Fourth-seeded Arizona embarrassed No. 2 seed Carolina 33-13 as a 10-point road underdog in the divisional round last week for its third consecutive win and cover, looking nothing like the team that suffered consecutive late-season blowout losses to Minnesota and New England. Veteran QB Kurt Warner (21 of 32, 220 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady enough, and WR Larry Fitzgerald (8 catches, 166 yards, 1 TD) was unstoppable, despite sidekick Anquan Boldin (hamstring) sitting out. Boldin is expected back this week.

Despite the 33-point effort, the key for Arizona last week was the defense, which forced Panthers QB Jake Delhomme into six turnovers (5 INTs, 1 lost fumble), leading to 23 points. The Cards held Carolina to just 269 total yards, while gaining 360, and they rolled up a nearly 20-minute edge in time of possession (39:49-20:11).

One week after going to Minnesota and eliminating the Vikings, sixth-seeded Philadelphia knocked off the top-seeded Giants 23-11 as a four-point pup to move to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, including two road wins over the defending Super Bowl champions. QB Donovan McNabb (22 of 40, 217 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) was a bit shaky, but he ran for one TD and led three second-half scoring drives, including a 10-play, 63-yard effort capped by a 1-yard TD pass to Brent Celek to give the Eagles a two-score lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Although Philly was outgained 307-276, the defense came up huge, picking off Eli Manning twice among three forced turnovers and stopping the Giants on fourth-and-short on back-to-back fourth-quarter possessions to help seal the deal.

Philadelphia is on a 7-2 ATS roll (5-4 SU) in this rivalry, including a 48-20 home whipping as a three-point home chalk on Thanksgiving night earlier this season. In addition, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.

During its three-game SU and ATS winning streak that dates back to the regular-season finale against Seattle, Arizona is averaging 32.3 points and 391.3 total yards per game, while giving up 19.3 points and 283 yards per contest. In the regular season, Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, 4th overall) and yards (1,431, 2nd overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.

Arizona’s defense has been solid in playoff wins over Atlanta and Carolina, allowing just 18.5 ppg and 259.5 ypg. Those numbers are far better than in the regular season, when the Cards ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (331.5 total ypg). Arizona, which finished even in turnover differential in the regular season, is a stunning plus-7 through two playoff games.

Philly has scored at least 20 points in each of its six wins during its current 6-1 run. In the regular season, it had the league’s sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and was ninth in total offense (350.5 ypg), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. Also, Brian Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.

Philadelphia has continued its yearlong strong defensive play in postseason wins at Minnesota and New York, allowing a stifling 12.5 points and 304 total yards per game. Since defeating Arizona, the Eagles’ D has held six consecutive opponents to 14 points or less, giving up an average of 10.8 ppg during this stretch. Philly is at plus-1 in turnover differential for the playoffs, after finishing plus-3 in the regular season.

The Eagles are on numerous ATS hot streaks, including 12-4 on the highway, 6-1 in the playoffs, 5-0 in road playoff games, 5-0 against winning teams, 5-0 on grass., 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 laying points and 5-2 in January. Philly has also gone 8-3 ATS this year in its 11 games against non-division foes. The Cardinals are on pointspread upticks of 5-0 in January, 4-1 on grass, 7-3 at home and 11-5 against winning teams, but they are on a 3-7 ATS slide as an underdog.

Since 1990, home teams have gone just 16-19-1 ATS in the conference championship round, including 0-2 ATS last year, the first time that’s happened since 2001. Since 1983, only four home teams have been underdogs in this round, and they’ve gone 1-2-1 ATS. Also, in conference finals since 1983, the NFC East is 10-4 ATS (4-2 ATS against the NFC West) and the NFC West is 6-8 ATS.

The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-1-1 in the playoffs, 5-0-1 as a playoff chalk, 41-16-5 as a favorite and 19-7-1 as a road favorite. However, the over is 23-11-1 in Philly’s last 35 games against winning teams, and the over for Arizona is on streaks of 36-17 overall, 37-14 with the Cards a ‘dog, 5-1 with the Cards a home pup, 16-5 against winning teams and 19-7 at home.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last nine clashes overall, and the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Arizona. This year’s 48-20 contest in Philly easily cleared the 48½-point posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Baltimore (13-5, 14-4 ATS) at Pittsburgh (13-4, 10-7 ATS)

The red-hot Ravens, the AFC’s No. 6 seed, travel to Heinz Field for their third clash of the season against the Steelers, who hope to make it 3-0 against their NFC North rivals and return to the Super Bowl for the seventh time in franchise history.

Baltimore edged Tennessee 13-10 as a three-point road pup last week for its fourth straight win and cover, and the Ravens are now 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games. Baltimore was completely outplayed in almost every category, giving up 391 total yards while gaining just 211 and losing the time-of-possession battle by more than eight minutes (34:07-25:53). But the game was won on turnovers, as the Ravens didn’t commit any while forcing one INT and two fumbles. All three of those turnovers came with the Titans in Ravens territory, including one at the 22-yard line and one inside the 5-yard line.

Rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 22, 161 yards, 1 TD) was mediocre against Tennessee, and the ground game netted just 50 yards, almost 100 below its regular-season average (148.5).

Second-seeded Pittsburgh pulled away from San Diego in the second half last Sunday for a 35-24 victory as a 6½-point favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight outing and moving to 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in its last eight games. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 26, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) played mistake-free football and was aided greatly by RB Willie Parker’s huge game (27 carries, 146 yards, 2 TDs) as the Steelers ran for 165 yards, while holding the Chargers to a measly 15 yards on the ground. Pittsburgh finished with a 342-290 edge in total yards.

As with Baltimore, turnovers were a key in Pittsburgh’s divisional-round victory, as the Steelers had a 2-0 edge. One of those was an INT that came on the Chargers’ only play of the third quarter, as the Steelers held the ball for all but 17 seconds of that period.

Baltimore is 6-2 ATS (4-4 SU) in the last eight clashes in this heated rivalry, including 1-1 ATS (0-2 SU) this season. In September, Pittsburgh won 23-20 in overtime at home, but the Ravens cashed getting six points. Last month, the Steelers eked out a 13-9 road victory with a late controversial TD to win and cash as a three-point pup. In fact, the underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings.

The Ravens’ offense has produced three TDs in its two playoff wins over the Titans and Dolphins, with the defense also contributing a score and kicker Matt Stover has hit four field goals. In the regular season, Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but the Ravens had the AFC’s No. 1 ground attack at 148.5 ypg (4th overall), with Le’Ron McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and Willis McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.

Baltimore’s defense hasn’t skipped a beat in the playoffs, allowing a postseason-leading 9.5 ppg in victories over Miami and Tennessee, but the Ravens are giving up 333.5 ypg. In the regular season, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed – a stingy 261.1 per game – and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). The Ravens have a plus-7 turnover differential in their two playoff games, putting them at a sterling plus-20 for the season. Safety Ed Reed has led the way with 11 INTs.

Pittsburgh’s offense produced its second-highest point total of the season in last week’s win over the Chargers. In the regular season, the Steelers were in the back half of the league in every offensive statistic, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th). Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs. Parker, limited to 11 games beause of injury but now regaining his form, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.

With such a lackluster offense, the Steelers needed a stellar defense to get to this point, and they had it in the league’s No. 1-ranked unit in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg). Despite those impressive numbers, Pittsburgh finished just plus-4 in turnover differential in the regular season, but the Steelers improved to plus-6 on the year following the win over San Diego. The 24 points given up last week tied for the second-most allowed this season.

The Ravens are on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 4-0 on the road, 6-1 in AFC North contests, 5-1 as a favorite, 8-1 against the AFC, 7-3 in the playoffs, 6-1 in road playoff games, 16-5 on grass and 10-2 after a SU win. However, they also carry negative ATS trends of 4-11 as a ‘dog of 3½-10 points and 3-10 as a road pup at that same price, and prior to their two spread-covers in the playoffs, the Ravens were in an 0-5 ATS rut in January games.

In addition, the SU winner is 27-2 ATS in Baltimore’s last 29 outings, including 17-1 ATS this season.

The Steelers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five AFC title games, but they are otherwise on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 6-0 in playoff games, 23-8 as a home chalk of 3½-10 points, 4-0 as a home chalk of any price, 4-0 versus division foes, 5-0 in January and 5-1 against winning teams.

Since 1983, home favorites have gone 26-18 ATS in the conference championship round.

The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in the playoffs, 5-1-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 in January and 4-1 with the Ravens a postseason pup. But the over for the Ravens is on runs of 4-1 against the AFC North, 5-2-1 on the road and 4-1-1 with the Ravens a road ‘dog, and the over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 38-16-2 at home, 4-0 in AFC title games, 11-2 in the playoffs, 8-1 in home postseason tilts, 6-1 with the Steelers a playoff chalk and 16-5 in January.

Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five clashes – with last month’s contest in Baltimore the exception – and the over has been the play in the last four meetings in Pittsburgh.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER


COLLEGE BASKETBALL

St. John’s (10-6, 4-5-1 ATS) at (23) Villanova (13-3, 5-7 ATS)

Villanova returns to the court for the first time since suffering a heartbreaking loss to Louisville eight days ago, as it hosts slumping St. John’s at The Pavilion.

The Wildcats nearly overcame an eight-point halftime deficit last Saturday against Louisville, coming up just short in a 61-60 loss as a two-point home favorite. Villanova is off to a 1-2 start in Big East play, failing to cash in any of the three contests. This mini-slump comes on the heels of a four-game winning streak to close out the non-conference season.

St. John’s followed up a surprising 71-65 upset home win over Notre Dame with back-to-back double-digit Big East losses to Pitt (90-67 as a 20-point road underdog) and UConn (67-55 as a 12½-point home pup). The Red Storm are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six outings, and they’ve lost their two Big East road games (Pitt and Providence) by a combined 44 points.

Villanova is on a 4-0 roll (2-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including last year’s 60-42 rout as a three-point road chalk. Three of the Wildcats’ four victories during their winning streak against St. John’s have been double-digit blowouts.

At home this season, the Wildcats average 74 points per game on 45.3 percent shooting while allowing a scant 58.5 ppg on 38 percent shooting. On the other hand, St. John’s has been outscored by an average of 18 ppg (82-64) when it hits the highway, shooting just 42.3 percent while letting the opposition make 49.2 percent of its field goals.

St. John’s is on ATS runs of 6-2 in Big East play, 8-3 after a double-digit home loss and 5-2 after a SU defeat, but it is also on pointspread slumps of 2-5 on the road, 2-5 against winning teams and 1-4 on Sunday. Meanwhile, Villanova carries nothing but negative ATS trends into this contest, including 2-5 overall, 2-5 at home, 0-4 in Big East play, 3-10 after a SU loss and 6-14 after a non-cover.

For the Red Storm, the under is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 8-2 on the road, 13-3 in league play and 4-0 after a SU loss. Also, Villanova is on under streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 24-9 at home, 10-4 in Big East action, 6-1 after a SU loss and 17-5-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, the over is 16-5 in St. John’s last 21 games on Sunday and 13-6-1 in the Wildcats’ last 20 on Sunday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

[SteveJanus]

Wild Bill

Philadelphia Eagles -3 (5 units)
Steelers -5 (5 units)
Cards-Eagles Over 48 (5 units)
Steelers-Ravens Over 33 (5 units)

7 pt teaser: Eagles +4, Steelers +2, Over 41 Eagles-Cards (5 units)


Mr A

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

The Eagles are at the top of its game. McNabb is playing sound, safety Brian Dawkins and the defense are at the top of their game. If Eagles' running back Brian Westbrook has a good day, Arizona’s season surely comes to an end. Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games and is 5-2 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 7 meetings versus Arizona.

Philadelphia Eagles -4


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

This should be a great game between two potent defenses. But the Steelers have the edge with a superior offense and home field advantage. Then again, the Steelers had a tough battle beating the Ravens in the last two games, 23-20 overtime win in Pittsburgh and a 13-9 win at home. Besides, the Ravens went 5-3 on the road this season and won two playoff road games. This is going to be a close fight that could be decided in the closing minutes. Take the Ravens. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens +6


Johnny Guild

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Now here are two really close teams and yes!, this will be a close game for sure. Even with the stats which are almost dead even is proving this idea. So the smart bet is with the team with the points being given plus who know they are the underdogs and have more to lose, which would be the Cardinals. The Eagles and the Cardinals will meet at the University of Phoenix Stadium on Sunday for tis Confernece Championship game. Like the last game look for Arizona to try to get their defense to intercept the Eagles passing game which I know that the eagles are looking out for that mistake the panthers made. Although the Eagles defense killed the Giants offense last game that probably would of been the sam tactics that Arizona would have done as well. Also keep in mind that the winner of this Sunday's NFC Championship game will become the first team with nine or fewer regular season wins to reach the Super Bowl since the 1979 Los Angeles Rams, who were 9-7 for the season. Good Luck Arizona... You deserve it!

Prediction: Arizona +4


ARIZONA +4

PITTSBURGH -5.5


JIM FEIST

PHOENIX SUNS at TORONTO RAPTORS
TAKE: PHOENIX SUNS

Reason: Toronto isn't doing anything right on defense, on a 4-game skid while allowing over 100 points in 3 straight. You can't play soft 'D' against this umptempo Phoenix team led by Steve Nash. Despite a home loss to Minnesota, Shaquille O'Neal and Leandro Barbosa each scored 22 and Amare Stoudemire added 19 for the Suns, who lost for just the third time in their last 11 home gamesand 6 of 9 overall. O'Neal has 15 or more points in his last 13 games, his longest such streak in almost four years. Nash and Shaq will tear up this soft Toronto 'D'. Play the Suns!


Dave Cokin

Missouri State @ Illinois State
Play: Missouri State -12'

I don't anticipate much difficulty for Illinois State in this spot. The Redbirds can use a blowout win and the Bears would seem to be the perfect fodder for exactly that. Missouri State is living down to billing as likely MVC cellar dwellers this season and they're generally a very bad road team. I'll back Illinois State to win this one big


Jeff Benton

I’m on an incredible 9-3 run with NBA freebies dating to last season, and on an overall comp play run of 42-21 heading into today's selection on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home versus Miami.

At 8-33, the Thunder continue to have the worst record in the NBA, but despite that dismal record, they’ve played with effort all season, and they’re finally reaping the rewards for their hard work. Oklahoma City has posted back-to-back double-digit home wins over playoff-caliber opponents Utah (114-93) and Detroit (89-79) – its first two-game winning streak of the season. In fact, five of the team’s eight wins have come since Dec. 31, a stretch of nine games.

What’s more, the Thunder have cashed in five straight games overall, nine of their last 10, 13 of their last 15 and 15 of their last 18. And if you go back to Nov. 22, Oklahoma City is 22-6 ATS, all as an underdog! That includes an ongoing 9-0 ATS run at home and 11-1 ATS streak against Eastern Conference opponents.

Tonight, the Thunder and budding superstar Kevin Durant (26.8 ppg last five games) catch Miami in the perfect spot. The Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back after last night’s game at Houston, and they’re just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight back-to-back situations. Not only that, but this contest wraps up Miami’s grueling seven-game, 11-day road trip. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Heat completely run out of gas tonight – or simply just flat mail this one in, especially with a much-needed two days off looming before Wednesday’s home game against Boston.

When these teams met in Miami back on Dec. 6, the Thunder gave the Heat all they could handle in a 105-99 loss, cashing as an 11-point underdog as rookie point guard Russell Westbrook scored a team-high 30 points and led four Oklahoma City players in double figures, which offset Dwyane Wade’s 38-point night.

Throw in the fact that the Thunder come into this game playing much better defense (allowing 94.2 ppg on 43.4 percent shooting overall and 26.8 percent on three-pointers in the last five games) than the Heat (105.2 ppg allowed on 46 percent shooting, including 40.6 percent three-pointers), and my money’s on Durant, Westbrook and an improving home team.

4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER



Scott Delaney

We're going to stick the comp plays on the hardwood on Championship Sunday, and we'll roll with Purdue over Iowa.

There are always good things to talk about in the Big 10 - whether it's Wisconsin's swing, Michigan's prowess, Michigan State's press and this year, Minnesota's ascension - but pardon Purdue if it plans on boiling over on everyone's party.

But the 'Makers are real deal at 13-4, and riding into this early Sunday contest with Iowa off two straight Big 10 wins to even their conference record at 2-2. Purdue beat Wisconsin by 13 in West Lafayette and Northwestern in a two-point squeaker in Chicago.

So with momentum and a three-game win streak in this series in our favor, not to mention the fact Iowa has lost three of four to start conference play and three straight to the books, I don't see any other way to go then to lay this chalk.

Besides, the Hawkeyes are limping into this one, and that can't be good with an already stagnant offense. This is a team that is so dinged up it couldn't prepare properly for this road contest, and took its bye week off from practice this past Wednesday, a normal Big 10 night.

Fact is, sans an inside game, the Hawkeyes have been passive on offense, and have been subjected to working deep into the shot clock and have been forcing their shots and committing costly turnovers.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS



Matt Rivers

For Sunday take the Eagles in Arizona.

Ken Whisenhunt's Cardinals are very very dangerous in the desert and will come to play for sure here as a win gets them shockingly into the Super Bowl. But when all is said and done I still can't pass up making a small play on the superior boys from Philly.

Larry Fitzgerald is a beast and Kurt Warner certainly knows how to get him and Anquan Boldin the ball but I still do not see these Cards as a complete team or a squad that is nearly as good as they looked in that unreal whacking of Carolina. The stars aligned for Arizona on that night and everything seemed to go their way. But that was then and this is now.

Andy Reid's defense is absolutely stifling right now. This team has been in a playoff mode for months now and even if stud running back Brian Westbrook is a little banged up I just do not see Donovan McNabb and the fellas not being able to win this game as they are just too superior and I'll therefore take my chances laying this field goal plus a little.

The Cards are rolling right now and confident after smacking the Panthers but their upside is still not as high as the Eagles and despite the dreaded road chalk I can't help but back the visitors in this spot.

More than likely we are looking at a competitive contest but the Eagles defense is much better than the Cards and in the end that will prove to be too much in a 10 point win!


Jake Timlin

Your Sunday selection is the Arizona Cardinals.

While most of the world is not giving the Cardinals a chance today I am as I see Arizona pulling off a huge upset and advancing to the Super Bowl. First off before you can believe in the Cardinals you must discount their 28 point loss in Philadelphia this season as Arizona playing on a short week and on a holiday they had little to no chance at winning anyways. Well now that Arizona is hosting today’s games their chances improve big time as the Cardinals are tough at home winning 12 of their last 17 games in the desert thanks to an offense that has scored 30 plus in 9 games this season, including both playoffs games. But really what is going to give the Cardinals a shot at the win today will be their much improved defense that has head both Atlanta and Carolina in check to reach today’s NFC Championship game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia while deserving team asking them to win three straight road games is a tall order considering they are just 5-4-1 straight up this season on the road. Flat out, while everyone is thinking the Eagles are going to have an easy time in the desert I feel the Cardinals are going to shock the nations. Play here is the Cardinals plus the points!

All Arizona!


Tony Weston

Today's Selection

We come through once again last night as the Orlando Magic deliver easily on the road at the Denver Nuggets. We're now on a 4-0 Comp Play win streak and have gone 6-1 with our last seven Freebies!

We’re continuing the winning, but switching gears today as we’re headed out to Arizona where we’re taking the Over in the Eagles-Cardinals NFC Championship matchup.

The number for this game is hovering between 47 and 49 points, depending on where you go. Obviously that’s subject to change, but that won’t matter because these two will blow right past that.

Consider first that the Over is 12-6 for the Cardinals up to this point in the season and has seen the Over go 6-2 their last eight games. In that eight-game stretch Arizona has totaled, on average, 54.5 points per game.

The Cardinals have also seen the Over go 8-1 at home this season as they’ve totaled, on average, 52.6 points per game. Arizona has also seen the Over go 36-17 its last 53 games and 37-14 its last 51 as an underdog. The Over is also 19-7 the Cardinals’ last 26 games at home and is 5-1 when Arizona is installed as an underdog in front of the home fans.

For the Eagles, the Over is 23-11-1 their last 35 games against teams with winning records.

Also, in their last nine meetings, the Over has gone 7-2 and has come in each of their last three matchups, including their earlier meeting in Philly where the teams combined for 68 points with the Total set at 48 1/2 points.

These two will put up the points and roll past the Total. Take the Over easily in this one today.

3♦ EAGLES-CARDINALS OVER


Chris Jordan

Philadelphia -4 at ARIZONA

Philadelphia will not score 48 again against Arizona. That as a crazy Thanksgiving night, when the Cardinals played on a short week, after getting throttled by the defending-champion Giants.

It's still relatively warm in Glendale, Arizona in mid-November ... compared to Philly ... so the nationally televised, ad-campaign, money-making Thursday Night special was nothing the Cardinals wanted a part of.

But the NFL dictates, and the result was a 48-20 blowout win by the Eagles.

On Sunday, the Eagles won't be traveling downfield as much, and to be honest, I think this will be a possession-conscious game that will see both teams control the clock and ballhog to keep the opposing offense off the field.

To get this far, you have to be playing well defensively, and I'd have to say watching the Cardinals limit the Panthers to 13 points, they're doing just fine with the stop unit.

Besides, Philadelphia is controlling the ball with the running, and short-yardage plays that find Donovan McNabb looking to short-arm the ball, rather than find his receivers downfield all the time. Overall, this team is doing a great job of moving the chains, but with a ball-control offense.

It's because of this that I believe Arizona will slow things down, because if it runs into trouble by firing the ball up all the time, it's going to find itself wondering when it'll get back on offense.

Time management will be key in this one, as the Cardinals and Eagles play much more conservative than people think.

2♦ UNDER


Karl Garrett

Philadelphia at ARIZONA

Playoff total for you today, as I like the Eagles-Cardinals to make their way OVER the posted price.

True, both of Philadelphia's playoff games thus far have landed UNDER, but the Eagles did rack up 45-points in their regular season meeting with Arizona, and this game is being played on a perfect field which should yield some decent yardage, and most importantly, points!

Arizona's game last week at Carolina did land LOW, but don't blame the Cardinals, as they scored 33-points in their dog outright win.

The Cards are on a 4-1 OVER run their last 5, and 6 of their last 8 have also landed HIGH, that includes their Thanksgiving visit to the City of Brotherly Love.

Have to look for the OVER in this NFC Championship Game.

It may not be a crazy 42-39 shootout, but there is enough offense on the field today to clear this impost.

G-Man playing the OVER.

4♦ OVER


Bobby Maxwell

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH

Swept the FREE board on Saturday as Wake Forest came in with ease on the college hardwood and then the Hornets delivered on the NBA hardwood with a winner over the Pistons. Today we'll hit our NFL comp play as we go with the over in the Ravens-Steelers matchup from Pittsburgh.

All the talk is about the two defenses taking the field today, and it should be as both units are dominating groups that can make life miserable for the opposition. But also remember these two defensive units have been known to force turnovers and either score themselves or set their offense up with an insanely short field. And with the total today being so unbelievably low, we've got to go with the over in this one.

Expect the defense to either score or set up short TDs twice in this game. So that reduces the number to three touchdowns we need from the offense. And that is very attainable. The Steelers have already proven they can drive down the field against Baltimore, as they did it in the final drive of their regular season win in Baltimore.

The first time these two met in Pittsburgh, the Steelers got a 23-20 OT victory. Last month the Steelers went to Baltimore and got a 13-9 win.

We're looking for the Steelers' Willie Parker to ignite the running game against Baltimore. We all saw last week that Tennessee RB Chris Johnson was dominating the game and would have let them to victory had he not gotten injured.

And look at some trends, as Baltimore is on over runs of 4-1 against the AFC North, 5-2-1 on the road and 4-1-1 with them as a road 'dog. For the Steelers, the over is on tears of 38-16-2 at home, 4-0 in AFC title games, 11-2 in the playoffs, 8-1 in home playoff games, 6-1 with them as a postseason favorite and 16-5 in all January contests.

Look for some points to be scored today. Play the over.

3♦ OVER


Sports Gambling Hotline

Kentucky -7 at GEORGIA

We knew it wouldn't be long before Billy Gillispie started to make his mark in Lexington, and after Tuesday's "signature" win in Knoxville in a game Jodie Meeks netted a school record 54-points, we look for the Wildcats to continue their winning ways against a Georgia team that is reeling.

The Dawgs have lost 4 straight, and were held to just 40-points in their loss at Vanderbilt earlier this week.

Kentucky is seeking major revenge, as Georgia dumped them in overtime in the SEC Tournament last March to deny the 'Cats a Big Dance ticket, while punching their own.

A lot has changed since that loss, and while this would seem to be a perfect "let down" spot for UK, we don't think UGA is good enough to deliver on any perceived let down.

We are laying it on the road with Kentucky.

Play on the Wildcats.

3♦ KENTUCKY

[SteveJanus]

Razor Sharp Sports

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Tom Brady and the Patriots, Peyton Manning and the Colts, LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers, or even Brett Favre and the Jets, I would have bet that I would have been talking about them taking on the Steelers way before Joe Flacco and the Ravens. But here we are on Championship Sunday and it is the Ravens that will be traveling to Heinz Field to take on Big Ben abd company. Even without those first couple teams I mentions, to a football purist, this could be a classic match-up. The game will be as hard hitting and bone rattling as the Steel town itself. You know the weather will be cold and the pads make that extra crack when the temps get low. Now when you have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Troy Palamalu and James Harrison making those hits and the faint of heart may want to turn away. This Sunday’s match-up between the Ravens and the Steelers could and should be a classic. Lets take a look at both teams.

We will start with the Wildcard Ravens. Baltimore has gotten into the AFC Title game with two road wins. First they handled Miami 23-9 and then last week, they bent, but didn’t break and took advantage of Titan errors (and one by the referee) to get past Tennessee 13-10. The similarities between this team and the 2000-2001 Super Bowl Champion Ravens are all over the place. Both teams are anchored by one of the best defenses in the league with Ray Lewis right in the center. They both were Wild Card teams heading into the playoffs. They both knocked off the #1 seeded Tennessee Titans on the road in their second contest. They both had questions at Quarterback during the season. Finally, the Super Bowl was held in Tampa Bay. Once again this year the defense has Ray Lewis leading the way. He has a team leading 117 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 3 interceptions. To go with Lewis there is Safety Ed Reed, who let the NFL regular season in interceptions with 9 and has added 2 more in the playoffs. Around Lewis and Reed, there is plenty of talent. Names like Samari Rolle, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, Hiloti Ngata and others fly all over the field to disrupt their opponents offenses and turning the ball over. In the regular season, they lead the NFL with 34 takeaways and have added 8 more in their 2 playoff contests. Offensively, it isn’t pretty, but like the 2000 team, it is very workmanlike. Rookie QB Joe Flacco, who was forced into the starting roll after pre-season injuries, started slow, but gets better every week. At the beginning of the season he had just 1 TD pass and 7 interceptions. Since then, Flacco has 13 TDs and 5 interceptions in the regular season and added 1 more touchdown pass in the playoffs with no interceptions in 45 passes in their 2 playoff games. Flacco’s #1 target is Derrick Mason, his #2 target is Derrick Mason and his third option is you guessed it Derrick Mason. The veteran Mason lead the team with with 80 catches for 1037 yards and 5 TDs. That was about a third of all of Flacco’s numbers. If for some reason Mason still wasn’t open, Flacco did mention to find Mark Clayton and Todd Heap a few times. Clayton had 41 catches for 695 and Heap had 35 for 405. The ground attack has been real interesting. Willis McGahee looked to be the big back at the beginning of the season, but injuries forced the Ravens to turn to an even bigger back. FB turned RB Le’Ron McClain carried the ball and is 6′ 260 lb frame for 920 yeards and 10 TDs in the regular season. In the post-season, McClain and McGahee have split the rushing duties.

With all this talk of the Ravens, don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten about the Steelers. You want to talk about defense, then at the top of the heap, you would find the Pittsburgh Steelers. Take a look at the final NFL regular season stats. The Steelers lead the league in Points Allowed, total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and were second in rushing yards allowed and sacks. Last week they shut down San Diego. They allowed just 15 rushing yards and a total of 290 yards. Don’t forget 62 of them came late in the pretty much meaningless Sproles screen play. LB James Harrison won the Defensive Player of the Year with 101 tackles, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception. Fellow LB James Farrior lead the team in tackles with 133. Safety Troy Palamalu added 73 tackles to go along with 7 interceptions. LaMarr Woodley also added 11.5 sacks. The offense is still centered around QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben showed no signs of the concussion that knocked him out of the regular season finale last week. He methodically moved the Steelers up and down the field last week. RB Willie Parker looked like he was finally healthy also as he ran for a season high 146 yards and added 2 TDs. Roethlisberger has plenty of weapons to through to when he isn’t handing off to Parker. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes make up a very dangerous 1-2 combo and Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller gives him even more options.

They say that it is tough for a team to beat another team 3 times on one season, but that is what the Steelers will have to do to get the the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has beaten Baltimore twice already this year with a 23-20 home win back in week 4 and then a 13-9 victory at Baltimore in week 15. Looking at the way both of these two teams have been playing defense and knowing that the weather is going to be cold as always in Pittsburgh in January, I have to look for another low scoring contest at least early in this game. These teams will want to feel each other out and trade punched. The second have the game may dictate the kind of play we see and if one of these teams are forced to open up their offense, that could cause turnovers and possible defensive scores. I think the best play here is to just play the UNDER in the first half. Take Baltimore and Pittsburgh UNDER the total of 17 in the first half of the game.


Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

PITTSBURGH -6 over Baltimore

Joe Flacco has been magical this year for the Ravens, but juts like the Cardinals below, his time is up. Yjis Pittsburgh defense is playing superb right now and they should be able to harass Flacco into the mistakes that Miami and Tennessee?s defenses weren?t able to do. During the two regular season games the Ravens were able to put up just 14.5 ppg vs. this Steelers defense. Pittsburgh also allowed Flacco to hit just 45.7% off his passes and throw for just 230 total yards in the 2 games, while sacking him 7 times and picking off 2 passes. The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd overall and 3rd in scoring, but could have their hands full vs. a hot Pittsburgh Offense that has put up 26.7 ppg in their last 3 games. This is the 18th straight game for the Ravens and they are beat up and tired, especially after last weeks physical game vs. the Titans, so I don?t think this team will be able to hang for the 4 full quarters vs. this physical Steelers squad. The Steelers have outscored foes by 8.9 ppg at home and I see them winning by at least that in this one.

3 Team 10 point Teaser--- Pittsburgh +4, Pittsburgh/ Baltimore Over 24 & Philly/ Arizona Over 37


2 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Baltimore Over 34

Yes I think the Steelers will create problems for Flacco, but I still see him being able to put some points on the board. The Ravens come in having put 25.4 ppg in their last 8 games, with those games averaging 35.8 ppg. Baltimore road games have averaged 42.8 ppg this year, including a 43 point game the last time thee teams met here. Steeler home games have averaged39.7 ppg, while their last 3 overall have averaged 45 ppg. The Over is 6-1-1 in Ravens last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 4-1 in their last 5 vs. AFC North, while the Over is 15-5 when Pittsburgh is home vs. an AFC team and 11-2 in their last 13 home playoff games. More points than you would think in this one, even in the snow.


1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia -3.5 over ARIZONA

Boy I really hate to go against the majority of the Forum here, but I really feel like the should win this on by at least a TD. Yes Arizona has momentum and revenge on their minds from that beat the Eagles gave them on Thanksgiving night, but Philly this is Philly 5th trip to the NFC title game since 2002 and that experience will prove invaluable. Arizona?s defense has played much better since the playoffs began, but the Eagles defense is still much better and that gives them another big edge. The Eagles allow just 4.6 yards per play against a schedule that featured a majority of games vs. NFC East foes, while Arizona yielded 5.4 YPP coming out of the weak NFC West Division. The Eagles have allowed 8.3 ppg less than the Cardinals this year and since that game vs. the Cardinals this Eagles defense has not allowed more than 14 points in any game. The Eagles offense has been very productive down the stretch as they are averaging 27.7 ppg in their last 7 games. The Arizona defense has allowed 25.7 ppg on the year and I don?t see them slowing down McNabb and company here. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS from game 8 on out vs. teams that average 260+ yards passing, while the Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Arizona has had a fine run in the playoffs, but it will end today.