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January 19th, 2009 04:35 PM #1
The Hand of Justice
Monday Service Plays
Carlo Campanella
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio has dominated this series, posting a 7-1 SU & ATS record during the last eight meetings against the Bobcats, including 4-0 SU & ATS in Charlotte. We get a fair line here due to the fact that Charlotte has won 5 of their last 7, however, the Spurs are one of the NBA's best road warriors at 11-6 SU away from home. These Spurs match-up very well at every position against Charlotte and San Antonio took the last two meetings by 20 points (Feb 19) and 9 points (January 21). Lay the small number as the Spurs continue their series dominance.
10* Play On San Antonio
Smooth44
CLEVELAND +5 -120
Insider Sports Report
4* Chicago/N.Y. Knicks OVER 209
Range: 207.5 to 211
3* Phoenix/Boston UNDER 204
Range: 206 to 202
3* Cincinnati +6.5 over Providence
Range: +8.5 to +4.5
NSA
20* Cincinnati +6.5
10* Texas A&M +10.5
10* Pittsburgh -8
10* Phoenix +8
10* Cleveland +5
10* Portland -6
RON RAYMOND
5* NBA BEST BET O/U WINNER!
Pacers / Hornets Under 209.5
Raptors / Hawks Over 196
Bucks / Trailblazers Over 196
3-GAME NHL PICK PACK - PROLINE PLAYERS!
Buffalo Sabres +100
Dallas Stars -115
Minnesota Wild +160
Jim Feist
5* NY Knicks
Inner Circle Philadelphia
Scott Spreitzer
5* Charlotte
KO Lakers
Dave Cokin
3* Cleveland
Window Boston
System Club Toronto
Bigshot: Minn Twolves
Smart Money
OVER Phoenix
OVER Dallas
UNDER Detroit
Halfbets
2* Knicks Under 210.5
4* 76ers -4
3* Pacers +8
Jeff Benton
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Monday's NBA action ...
15 Dime: 76ERS (over Mavericks) ... NOTE: There is currently no line on this game, as there are some injury questions with the Mavs' (Dirk is probable; Josh Howard is doubtful) and 76ers (Elton Brand is questionable). I'm fully expecting Nowtizki to play and don't think the other two will. Regardless, any injury will be factored into the final line and you should stick with this play on red-hot Philadelphia.
5 Dime: SPURS (minus the points vs. Bobcats)
76ers
How do you not continue to back the 76ers? They’re riding a seven-game winning streak (longest in the NBA right now); they’ve cashed in eight in a row; they won four in a row and six of seven at home; they’ve scored 100 points or more in seven of their last eight games; they’ve allowed an average of just 88 ppg in their last five, holding those opponents to just 43.3 percent shooting; and they’ve won their last three games against the Blazers (home), Spurs (home) and Knicks (road) by an average of 17.3 ppg, with a pair of 21-point wins over Portland and San Antonio!
ATS Lock Club
4 Hornets -7
4 Cavs +5
ATS Financial Package
4 Spurs -3.5
3 Over 203.5 Bos/Pho
Las Vegas Sports Picks
1* Mavs +5
1* Cavs +5
1* Wizards +5
2 NBA Best Bets for Monday.
Rotation #513 Minnesota (-6) 2-Stars at -6 or less.
Rotation #520 Boston (-8) 3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
2 Star Selection
**Minnesota (-6) over LA CLIPPERS
12:35 PM Pacific - Rotation 513
The Timberwolves have been on a roll with Kevin McHale making the calls from the bench, winning 6 of their last 7 games straight up and going 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games. Minnesota should keep that roll going today against a depleted Clippers squad that is already without stars Baron Davis and Zach Randolph and now without top defender Marcus Camby, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle sprain. The Clippers did manage to win their most recent game, Saturday against the Bucks, but they lost 12 games prior to that and have been 9 points worse than an average team in 9 games without Davis and Randolph and they’ll be even worse without Camby. The Clippers have been out-scored by an average of 13.2 points per 48 minutes when Camby has not been on the floor this season, compared to being only out-scored by 3.5 points per 48 minutes when he’s on the floor. The Clippers are also 3-25 straight up and 6-22 ATS after their last 28 victories and just 9-25 ATS in their last 34 home games (7-13 ATS this season). Minnesota applies to a 78-29-1 ATS momentum situation and a 90-38-2 ATS situation. I’ll take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.
3 Star Selection
***BOSTON (-8) over Phoenix
05:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 520
Boston appears to have snapped out of their funk, winning their last 4 games after losing 4 straight and 7 of 9 prior to that. Most of the Celtics’ recent losses have been on the road and they continue to be a good bet at home, where they are 47-29-1 ATS since last season, including 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games when rested. Phoenix is unrested after having played on Sunday and the Suns apply to a negative 98-172-4 ATS 4th game in 5 days situation. Boston, meanwhile, applies to a very good 195-90-8 ATS home momentum situation that is 37-9 ATS if the road team won the previous day or night. Phoenix is only 3-11-1 ATS with Jason Richardson in the lineup, as they are getting the worst of their December trade with the Bobcats and the Suns are only 2-6 ATS as an underdog this season. My ratings favor Boston by 10 points even after adjusting 1 ½ points for the fact that the Celtics are without Kendrick Perkins and Tony Allen. I’ll take Boston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ or -10 points.
__________________
Sebastian Steam Play
Pacers
Billy Coleman
4* San Antonio -4
3* Phoenix +8
3* Lakers -4.5
3.5* Cincinnati +6
3* Syr/Pitt UNDER 146
Roundball
3* Syracuse
ASA
4* Hawks UNDER
3* Bulls UNDER
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units Indiana plus the points over New Orleans
1000 Units LA/Cleveland OVER the total
1000 Units Portland minus the points over Milwaukee
Dave Malinsky
4* Bulls +2.5
ATS Lock Club
4 Hornets -7
4 Cavs +5
ATS Financial Package
4 Spurs -3.5
3 Over 203.5 Bos/Pho
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: 76ERS (over Mavericks) ... NOTE: There is currently no line on this game, as there are some injury questions with the Mavs' (Dirk is probable; Josh Howard is doubtful) and 76ers (Elton Brand is questionable). I'm fully expecting Nowtizki to play and don't think the other two will. Regardless, any injury will be factored into the final line and you should stick with this play on red-hot Philadelphia.
5 Dime: SPURS (minus the points vs. Bobcats)
76ers
How do you not continue to back the 76ers? They’re riding a seven-game winning streak (longest in the NBA right now); they’ve cashed in eight in a row; they won four in a row and six of seven at home; they’ve scored 100 points or more in seven of their last eight games; they’ve allowed an average of just 88 ppg in their last five, holding those opponents to just 43.3 percent shooting; and they’ve won their last three games against the Blazers (home), Spurs (home) and Knicks (road) by an average of 17.3 ppg, with a pair of 21-point wins over Portland and San Antonio!
The Mavericks are coming off a 115-108 home win over the Jazz as a five-point home favorite. But prior to that, Dallas had lost four straight games, and it is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 outings. What’s more, the Mavs have lost four in a row and five of six on the road, going 2-4 ATS (and the one victory came at the Clippers).
Also, while the Sixers have been playing tremendous defense lately, the same can’t be said for the Mavericks. They’ve surrendered 99 points or more in five straight games and seven of the last eight, and during this eight-game stretch, they’re giving up an average of 104.9 ppg.
The home team is on a 6-1 SU and ATS run in this series, including Philadelphia’s 84-76 win as a three-point home underdog last year. Throw in the fact that, with Friday’s rout of the Spurs, the 76ers improved to 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Southwest Division, and this one’s a no-brainer. Play the home team.
Spurs
This one’s exclusively about line value. Because the Bobcats are playing well (3-0 SU and ATS last three; 5-2 SU and ATS last seven; three straight wins and covers at home), and because San Antonio has just one spread-cover in its last four games (a five-point win as a 3½-point chalk on Saturday in Chicago), this number has come in short. But make no mistake: Even though Charlotte is improving and even though San Antonio isn’t the dynasty it once was, there’s still a very wide gap between these teams. And I’m sorry, but the line in this game doesn’t reflect that gap.
Just look at the numbers: The Spurs are 26-13 overall and 11-6 on the road; the Bobcats are 16-24 overall and 11-12 at home. The Spurs average 97.2 ppg overall and 94.8 ppg on the road; the Bobcats average 91.4 ppg overall and 92.3 ppg at home. The Spurs give up 94.2 ppg overall and 93.8 on the road; the Bobcats give up 94 ppg overall and 93.4 ppg at home. And if you just look at the last five games, you’ll see that San Antonio is putting up 99 ppg on 47.1 percent shooting, while Charlotte has scored only 88.4 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting. Also, the Bobcats have scored fewer than 90 points five times in their last nine games.
San Antonio has won three straight games in this series, going 3-0 ATS, with victory margins of 20, 11 and 20 points, and it is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS all time since the Bobcats came into the league. Additionally, the Spurs are on ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 6-1 as a road favorite, 9-3-1 when playing on one day of rest and 5-0 on Monday. As for the Bobcats, they’re 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 contests against the deep Southwest Division (which features the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets and Hornets).
Bottom line: Maybe this line is a trap, but I just don’t see it. Take the value with the vastly superior visitor.
Gimme the loot.
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January 19th, 2009 04:38 PM #2
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January 19th, 2009 04:38 PM #3
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
Denver (27-14, 22-18-1 ATS) at Houston (25-16, 19-22 ATS)
The Rockets will try to make it seven straight wins for the home team in this budding rivalry with the Nuggets in an early afternoon affair at the Toyota Center.
The host has won six straight (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry, including both meetings this season (2-0 ATS). Denver scored a 104-94 victory back on Nov. 30 as a 3½-point home favorite and Houston returned the favor on Dec. 16 with a 108-96 victory as a four-point chalk. The Rockets have gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes, including 4-1 ATS in Texas.
The Nuggets just wrapped up a seven-game homestand with Saturday’s 106-88 loss to the streaking Magic, falling as 1½-point favorites. Denver, which went 5-2 SU and ATS on the homestand, has topped the 100-point mark just once in its last four games (1-3 ATS), and that was a 119-113 overtime win against the Suns on Thursday as three-point favorites.
Houston has won four of its last five (3-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 93-86 victory over the Heat, cashing as a 3½-point home chalk. The Rockets, who allow just 91.1 points per game at home, are 13-5 in front of the home crowd this season, but just 7-11 ATS.
The Nuggets are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 0-4 in their last four games as a ‘dog, but they are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 after a non-cover, 11-4 after getting a day off and 12-5 against the Southwest Division. Houston is mired in ATS ruts of 4-9 overall, 2-5 at home, 0-4 against the Western Conference and 5-10 after getting a day off this season.
Denver is on “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 5-2 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-0 on the road. On the other hand, the Rockets are on under runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 20-8 as a home favorite, 6-1 as a favorite and 4-0 when getting one day off.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Phoenix (23-15, 13-24-1 ATS) at Boston (33-9, 22-20 ATS)
The Celtics will try to make it five in a row when they welcome the Suns into TD Banknorth Garden.
After dropping four straight and seven of nine (SU and ATS) in late December and early January, Boston has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), including a home-and-home sweep of the Nets Wednesday and Saturday. In the first contest against New Jersey, the Celtics rolled to a 118-86 home win over New Jersey as 10-point favorites, then they went to Jersey on Saturday and won 105-85 as a 6½-point chalk.
Phoenix broke a two-game SU and ATS losing skid with Sunday’s 117-113 win in Toronto, pushing as a four-point favorite. The Suns are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight overall and they haven’t held a team to less than 100 points since Jan. 2, giving up 108.4 points per game in their last five.
The home team has won each of the last three meetings between these two (2-1 ATS) but just four of the last 10. Last year, the Celtics got a 117-97 victory in Boston, covering as a seven-point favorite to snap a five-game Suns winning streak (3-2 ATS) in this series. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with Phoenix sporting a 5-1 ATS mark in its last six visits to Beantown.
The Suns are on a host of negative ATS trends that include 8-21-1 overall, 3-8-1 on the road, 1-5-1 as a road ‘dog, 1-6-1 as an underdog anywhere, 0-4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 0-4 on Monday. Boston is on ATS slides of 1-5 against the Western Conference and 1-6 on Mondays, but the Celtics are on positive ATS streaks of 10-3 at home, 9-3 against the Pacific Division and 7-3 as a home favorite of five to 10½ points.
The Suns are in the midst of “over” streaks that include 15-7 overall, 8-1 on the road, 13-3 as a road ‘dog, 7-2 on the second night of a back-to-back and 27-11 against the Eastern Conference. Boston has topped the total in six of its last seven at home, but otherwise the Celtics are on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 18-7-1 on Mondays, 10-1-1 against the Western Conference and 6-2 after getting a day off. Finally, the over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these squads, including 6-1 in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Cleveland (31-7, 27-11 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (31-8, 18-21 ATS)
It’s a battle of NBA heavyweights at the Staples Center in Los Angeles as LeBron James brings his Cavaliers into Hollywood for a battle with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
Cleveland dropped its last road outing Thursday in Chicago, falling 102-93 as a 7½-point favorite. But the Cavs were able to rebound Friday and get a 92-78 home win over the Hornets, cashing as 2½-point favorites. They have cashed in four of their last five games and have limited opponents to 92 points or less in six of their last seven.
The Lakers have dropped two in a row, losing 112-111 in San Antonio on Wednesday but cashing as three-point ‘dogs, then falling 109-103 at home to Orlando on Friday as 4½-point favorites. Los Angeles is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall and hasn’t held an opponent to less than 100 points in seven straight games.
The Cavaliers have rattled off five straight wins over the Lakers (4-1 ATS), including a 98-95 win as four-point underdogs in its one trip to Los Angeles a year ago. Cleveland also delivered a 114-108 road win as 7½-point underdogs in 2007, and LeBron and Co. are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, but otherwise the Cavs are on positive ATS trends of 37-14 overall, 10-1 against the Western Conference, 11-5 against the Pacific Division, 39-19 as a road ‘dog, 20-7 on Mondays and 6-1 when getting two days off. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games, but they are on a plethora of negative pointspread of 0-4 at home, 6-20 against the Eastern Conference 2-12 after an non-cover, 1-6 when getting two days off, 5-16 after a straight-up loss and 6-13 at home against a team with a winning road mark.
For the Cavs, the under is on streaks of 5-2 on the road, 6-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Monday and 6-1 after a spread-cover. Los Angeles is on over streaks of 4-1 overall, 16-6 at home, 6-2 on two days of rest, 12-5 against the Eastern Conference and 22-9 after a straight-up loss. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(8) Syracuse (17-2, 8-7 ATS) at (1) Pittsburgh (16-1, 7-5 ATS)
Pitt looks to rebound from its first loss of the season when it hosts eighth-ranked Syracuse at the Petersen Events Center in yet another clash of Top 25 Big East rivals.
The Panthers blew double-digit leads in both the first and second halves at Louisville on Saturday, eventually succumbing 69-63 as a two-point road underdog, their second consecutive non-cover in conference play. Only two players – Jermaine Dixon (19 points) and Sam Young (14) – scored in double figures for Pitt, which shot just 35 percent from the field. The loss snapped the Panthers’ nine-game conference winning streak (6-3 ATS) going back to last year’s regular-season finale and including their Big East tournament championship.
Syracuse steamrolled Notre Dame 93-74 as a four-point home favorite Saturday, bouncing back from Wednesday’s 88-74 loss at Georgetown as a 6½-point underdog – a defeat that snapped the Orange’s seven-game winning streak. Six different Syracuse players – including all five starters – scored in double figures in Saturday’s victory, as the Orange shot a blistering 55.2 percent from the field and held the Irish to 36.5 percent.
Both squads are 4-1 SU in Big East play, with the Orange going 3-2 ATS and the Panthers going 2-3 ATS.
Pitt is on a roll in this rivalry, winning five of he last six meetings SU and ATS, including the last two in a row. Last season, the Panthers went to Syracuse on March 1 and eked out an 82-77 victory as a two-point road underdog. The SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings, with the visitor going 5-2 SU and ATS in the past seven regular-season clashes.
The Orange rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (81.5 points per game, 9th) and field-goal shooting (50.4 percent, 6th), and they’ve scored at least 72 points in 17 of 19 games, including topping 80 on 12 occasions. However, tonight, they face a Pitt defense that ranks 24th in points allowed (59.4 ppg) and 15th in field-goal defense (37.8 percent). The Panthers have held nine opponents to 60 points or less.
Defensively, Syracuse gives up 68.4 ppg, but on just 39.6 percent shooting overall and 29.1 percent from three-point range, the latter figure ranking 11th-best in the nation. Meanwhile, the Panthers score 77.1 ppg (47 percent shooting).
The Orange are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, 5-1 ATS in their last seven against winning teams and 3-1 ATS as an underdog this year, but they’re in pointspread slumps of 6-13 on Monday, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 2-9 in games following a 90-point offensive effort. Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a non-cover, but 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU win.
The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry and 21-10 in Syracuse’s last 31 games on Monday. However, the over is on runs of 4-0 for Syracuse overall (all in conference play), 11-3 for Pitt at home, 12-3 for Pitt in Big East play and 4-0 for Pitt after an outright defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Texas A&M (15-3, 5-6 ATS) at Kansas (13-4, 7-5 ATS)
Kansas shoots for its third consecutive Big 12 victory when it entertains Texas A&M at Allen Fieldhouse.
The Jayhawks suffered a 75-62 loss at No. 8 Michigan State nine days ago but have since come back and posted a pair of double-digit wins over Kansas State (87-71 as a 6½-point home favorite) and Colorado (73-56 as an 12-point road chalk) to start conference play. In Saturday’s win against the Buffaloes, Kansas had a big rebounding edge (31-19) and shot 61.4 percent from the field (27-for-44), including 52.9 percent from long range (9-for-17), while holding Colorado to 37.2 percent overall and 31.2 percent on three-pointers.
Three days after upsetting No. 21 Baylor 84-73 as a 1½-point home underdog, Texas A&M gave No. 6 Oklahoma a good run before falling 69-63 and coming up short as a 3½-point home pup. Although the Aggies held player-of-the-year candidate Blake Griffin to just 16 points and six rebounds, they had only two players score in double digits and finished shooting just 42 percent from the field while missing nine of 23 free-throw tries.
While Kansas is off to a perfect start in Big 12 action, Texas A&M – which won 14 of 15 non-conference games – is 1-2 SU and ATS, including a 72-61 loss at Oklahoma State as a seven-point underdog in its only league roadie to this point.
The Jayhawks have owned this rivalry, winning all but one meeting since the league was formed in 1996, going 9-1 SU this decade. In last year’s regular-season finale, Kansas upended the Aggies 72-55 as a 4½-point road underdog, then a week later the Jayhawks eliminated A&M from the Big 12 tournament with a 77-71 victory as an 11-point chalk in the semifinals on their way to the tournament championship and eventual NCAA title.
One positive for the Aggies in this series: They ended a 31-game losing skid at Allen Fieldhouse in their last trip to Kansas in 2007, prevailing 69-63 as a five-point underdog. Also, the ‘dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six series meetings.
Kansas has scored more than 70 points in all 13 of its victories, but in its last three losses it has scored 60, 67 and 62 points. At home, the Jayhawks average 82 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting. Meanwhile, the Aggies have been limited to an average of just 60 ppg in their three losses. On the road, Texas A&M pours in 73 ppg, but shoots only 43.5 percent from the field (28 percent from three-point land) while allowing 70 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting (32.7 from three-point range).
Texas A&M is on ATS streaks of 7-2 on the road, 6-0 after a SU loss and 7-0 following a non-cover. The Jayhawks are on pointspread rolls of 13-5 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-2 in Big 12 play, 11-5 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 on Monday.
For Kansas, the over is on stretches of 7-3 overall and 6-1 at home, and the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between the schools. Conversely, the Aggies are on “under” streaks of 16-7 on the highway, 7-2 in conference play and 4-1 on Monday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gimme the loot.
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January 19th, 2009 04:41 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
Jeff Benton
I’ve hit a bit of a rough patch with the freebies over the last three days. That said, I’m still 42-22 over the last 64 days with my free selections, including 9-4 in the NBA. I’ll take that! On Monday, we’ll get back on track by taking the points with the Bucks in Portland.
This is a tough spot for Milwaukee, which is wrapping up a three-game Western Conference road trip and is playing its fifth road game in its last six contests. But in my eyes, Portland’s situation is more daunting. The Blazers are returning home after a four-game, six-day Eastern Conference road swing, and they split the four contests both SU and ATS. And while the Bucks had make the relatively short trip from Los Angeles (where they lost to the Clippers on Saturday) to Portland, the Blazers had to fly cross-country from Charlotte (where they lost in overtime to the Bobcats on Saturday). Also, Portland has to get readjusted to West Coast time, while this is the Bucks’ third game in five days in the Pacific Time Zone.
Milwaukee is going through a very interesting stretch where it has alternated wins and losses in its last 14 games, and the Bucks haven’t dropped consecutive decisions since a three-game road losing skid at the Lakers, Suns and Warriors in early December – a stretch of 19 contests. Additionally, despite the loss at the Clippers, the Bucks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games, and they’re also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover and 13-6 in their last 19 games played after a day of rest.
Meanwhile, the Blazers are just 10-7 ATS at home this season, including 1-2 ATS in the last three. Finally, the road team has cashed in eight of the last 10 Bucks-Blazers meetings. Grab the points.
4♦ MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Scott Delaney
We're going to stick the comp plays on the hardwood on after Purdue got it done with ease over Iowa. Take the Bulls in New York tonight.
We’re going to take a shot with the road team here, as the Knicks haven't shown us much success against the Bulls lately, losing 12 of the last 16 meetings. And with Chicago coming in off another solid defensive effort – it has allowed an average of 94.3 points in its last three games – I like our chances since the Bulls are 10-2 when allowing 95 points or fewer.
And for the record, the Bulls allowed an average of 91.5 points per game in their last four inside Madison Square Garden. Chicago is on an ATS run of 4-1 when catching up to 4-1/2 points, while the Knicks are mired in ATS skids of 2-5 at home, 8-21 as the favorite, 7-19 when laying the chalk at home and 2-8 against the Central Division.
CHICAGO BULLS
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the Raptors in Hotlanta.
A battle of atrition here at Philips Arena as both teams are banged up and not really sure who will be good to go.
The Hawks just came home after that West Coast swing that ended with the loss in Golden State and like I always say, that first game back home is normally a tough one. Mike Woodson's squad is a great 15-4 SU at home but they are struggling mightily right now as they have dropped five of six on the wood and six of eight at the window. Al Horfod is still out leaving a bunch of mediocre at the very very best big men for the Hawks and Marvin Williams may not play as well after the concussion a few nights ago.
The Raptors have been disappointing this season for sure and Jermaine O'Neal and Jose Calderon are far from healthy but this game is extremely winnable for the visitors. Chris Bosh is coming back home and as usual will look to play well in front of his former Georgia Tech fans.
Either team could walk off the court the victor in this Martin Luther King Jr. matinee affair and to get around half a dozen or so is fine with me.
Cajun Sports
Indiana Pacers vs. New Orleans Hornets -8
PLAY: 2* Indiana Pacers +8
The New Orleans Hornets return home off a road trip to host the Indiana Pacers on Monday afternoon in the Big Easy. New Orleans will look to win back-to-back games for the first time in two weeks while Indiana is looking to win three straight for the first time since November.
In their most recent meeting back on December 28 at Conseco Fieldhouse the Pacers lost 105 to 103 as the Hornets David West hit the game winner with 2.5 seconds remaining. The Hornets have won the last two meetings both were in Indiana but they have struggled at home versus the Pacers losing the last three meetings in the Big Easy.
Indiana is 56-35 ATS revenging a close loss versus an opponent of 3 points or less since 1996 and 15-7 ATS revenging a loss versus an opponent this season. The Pacers after going ‘over’ in their last game now facing a non-conference opponent on the road are 42-24 ATS. New Orleans off a road game and now hosting a non-conference opponent are 53-77-4 ATS, if that opponent happens to be Indiana they are 2-9-1 ATS. If the Hornets won their last game on the road and now face Indiana at home they are 0-5-1 ATS.
We also note that NBA teams that have gone ‘under’ in their last two games on the road now face a non-conference opponent with a line range of 8 to 9.5 points their record is 56-82-5 ATS.
With technical and situational support for the visitor we will back the Pacers here as they keep this one close in the Big Easy.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Indiana Pacers 101 New Orleans Hornets 102
Dave Cokin
Mavericks @ 76ers
Play: 76ers
The 76ers are on fire, winning eight straight games and covering each of their last nine outings. They might get Elton Brand back for this contest, although they've been red hot without him. Josh Howard might miss another game here for Dallas, and the 76ers will be out to avenge a ten point loss to the Mavs back on New Year's weekend. I'll ride the hot hand and back the 76ers today.
Karl Garrett
Toronto at ATLANTA -6
This afternoon, lay the wood with the Hawks as they take care of business at home against the Raptors.
Toronto is riding a 5-game losing streak that has seen them go 1-3-1 against the spread along the way.
Atlanta is back home after a disappointing 1-2 west coast swing, but at least the Hawks can boast a 15-4 straight up mark at home this season. Included is a 110-92 romp over Toronto in early November,
The Hawks have won the last pair of series meetings at home, and 3 of the last 5 both straight up, and against the spread at the Philips Arena versus the Raptors, and they will win and cover again today.
Toronto is a disappointing 8-14 straight up on the road this year, and 10-11-1 against the spread in those road tilts.
G-Man backing the host minus the points in this one.
2♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at HOUSTON -2'
The Rockets are hosting this game and for it being such an early game, we've got to favor the home team as these two will tip-off at just after noon local time, throwing off everyone's internal clock for the game. Plus the Nuggets come in without Carmelo Anthony, missing a lot of scoring in the lineup.
Denver has had trouble scoring lately, getting 100 points just once in its last four games and even in that one they had to have overtime to beat the Suns 119-13. The Nuggets just concluded a seven-game homestand and now this is their first game away from the friendly home court.
Houston has won four of its last five games and beat the Heat 93-86 on Saturday, cashing as a 3 1/2-point home chalk. The Rockets already play stifling defense at home, allowing just 91.1 points a game and they are 13-5 in front of the home fans.
The Rockets are on an 8-3 ATS run against the Nuggets and 4-1 ATS in Texas against them. The Nugets are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 0-4 the last four times they've been underdogs.
We love the Rockets at home in this one. Play Houston.
3♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
Denver at HOUSTON -2'
If playing without Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest is a tough chore, then why are the Rockets laying the points to the 27-win Nuggets? Perhaps it’s because Yao Ming is getting the job done for Houston.
The Rockets improved to 2-1 in the last three games without their two stars, beating Miami 93-86 at home on Saturday, and it was Yao carrying the team with a perfect 12-for-12 performance from the field. He finished with a double-double, pumping in 26 points and yanking down 10 boards.
Denver is in off a beatdown at the hands of red-hot Orlando, which humiliated the home-team Nuggets, 106-88, on Saturday. And since the home team has won six straight games in this series - three apiece - since the start of last season, I’m going to bank on the win and cover in this matinee clash in H-Town.
3♦ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Syracuse +8 at PITTSBURGH
Sticking in college tonight, and grabbing the points with a Syracuse team that had Pittsburgh down by 13-points with under 4 minutes to go in the last series meeting, only to wind up losing 82-77.
Expect the Orangemen to have that loss sitting in their craw as they play with a vengeance tonight in the Steel City.
Pittsburgh is off their first loss of the season, as they took it on the chin at Louisville over the weekend, and the Panthers are just 3-3 against the spread in their line home games.
The 'Cuse meanwhile, is off to a 5-1 start on the road, going 4-2 against the spread in those roadies.
Maybe the Orangemen don't win outright, but we expect them to be inside this number all the way tonight.
Play on the Orange plus the points.
3♦ SYRACUSE
Jimmy The Moose
Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
Carolina comes into this one having played over the total in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. In their last 5 vs. Northeast team's the over is 4-1. The Maple Leafs have played the over in their last 2 games. The over is 4-1-1 in Toronto's last 6 games vs. Southeast opponents. The over is 4-0 in Carolina's last 4 trips to Toronto. The team's have played the over in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Play the over.
Brian Hansen
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
The Suns are coming off a great victory in Canada over the Raptors last night but I look for them to be slow this evening as they continue their road trip in Boston! The Boston Celtics rebounded from their worst stretch in two seasons with a four-game winning streak. A few more victories this week against better competition, and they'll feel even more sure of their resurgence. The defending NBA champions open a challenging portion of their schedule on Monday night against the visiting Phoenix Suns, who continue their six-game eastern swing. Look for BOSTON to take advantage of an inconsistent team that's playing back to back!
Jim Feist
PHOENIX SUNS / BOSTON CELTICS
Take PHOENIX SUNS
When the season started, Suns HC Terry Porter had stated that he intended on getting more games out of his big center, Shaquille O'Neal. He was going to do this by sitting the big man in the second of back to back games. And, that's just what we get today as the Suns having won at Toronto on Sunday, 117-114, play today in Boston. However, while you think the Suns would not do well in this position, the opposite is actually true as Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in the second game of back-to-back games on the road. The Suns are also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Dec. 24th to find a game in which the Suns have actually lost by more than five points. That number is important considering that tonight they are at least a 8-point dog. The Celtics have won four straight games, though at the expense of Toronto and New Jersey -both of whom they played a home-and-home series against. Before that the Celts were reeling, going 2-7 both SU and ATS. But, this is a veteran club and they don't panic. Tonight should be a classic confrontation - a great scoring team in Phoenix against a great defense like Boston. The Suns might just have too many offensive weapons here to be shut down and while a straight up win by Phoenix might be a bit much, coming in under that 8-point number is a value play we like a lot.
Scott Spreitzer
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
I'm taking the points with the suddenly confident Charlotte Bobcats. There's good reason for Charlotte's improved play, as well as attitude. Since picking him up, Boris Diaw has been an absolute "find" for Charlotte. But they have also been getting great play from Gerald Wallace who just pumped in 31-points in Charlotte's win over Portland, their third straight victory. Besides acquiring Diaw and Raja Bell in a trade with Phoenix earlier this season, the Bobcats traded for DeSagna Diop a few days ago and expect to have him in the lineup on Monday. Diop is a defensive specialist, and at 7-feet tall, allows Emeka Okafor to move to a more natural "4" position. This is no longer the team that San Antone has dominated since the Bobcats came into the league. Charlotte loves playing at the pace we're likely to see on Monday. As Gregg Popovich put it a few days ago, the Spurs must keep opponents in the 80s or 90s to win games consistently. The total is currently around 177 1/2. And, playing in games with a total range that includes tonight's is what Charlotte does best. They're a perfect 6-0, 100% ATS in this situation. The Bobcats, like the Spurs, want to keep this one low-scoring and acquiring Diop can only help. Charlotte is on a 3-game win streak, holding the opposition to 88 ppg. Also, the Bobcats are a healthy 15-7 ATS as an underdog in a range that includes today's "side" number. I expect the Bobcats to win this one outright, but my play is to take the points for insurance. Charlotte is the play on Monday afternoon.
Johnny Guild
Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are 14-4 at home overall. Meanwhile, the Bucks have struggle away from home this season, just 9-16 on the road. Take the Trail Blazers on their home court. Portland has won the last three meetings against Milwaukee all close battles, but the Bucks will be shorthanded without center Andrew Bogut, with a back injury
Portland Trail Blazers -6.5
CBB
Kansas Jayhawks -10.5
Mr. A
Atlanta Hawks -5½
San Antonio Spurs -3½
Boston Celtics -8
Easybaseballbetting
Knicks -2.5
We love the Knicks today as they are killers during day games. They also perform quite well on MLK day. They face a Bulls team that has scheduling disadvantage (they will be facing the Hawks with triple revenge in their next game). With such a short line, we cannot but love the value in this wager.
Minnesota -5
Another bet that we love today. The Clippers finally got a win their last time out, but we see them falling into their previous self today as they are horrible on Mondays. They have not covered their last 10 Monday games and we see this as no different. Minnesota has been playing very well recently and they will avenge an earlier loss to these same Clippers today. Take the short line on the Twolves and see them beat the crap out of the Clips today.
Phoenix +8
Boston and Phoenix simply do not match up well together. Phoenix has not lost by more than 9 points in recent games and asking them to keep this game close, if not win this game straight up, is not too unreasonable. Boston may be regaining their form, but we feel the value of 8 points here is tremendous.
Milwaukee +6.5
The Bucks have been alternating wins and losses recently and we see them bouncing back from their recent loss to the lowly Clippers last time out. They face an overrated Portland team today who is coming home from a 4 game Eastern road swing. Portland is coming off an OT loss to the Bobcats and we simply do not see them being focused today. Milwaukee has been great as an underdog and an excellent bet on the road. Take the points in what should be an exciting game up in Portland.
Vegas Experts
Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers
At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the points over the Lakers. At the start of the season, the two favorites for the NBA Title were the Lakers and Celtics, but it's Cleveland which has emerged as the current front-runner after its strong play to start the season. The Cavaliers already showed Boston that their ready to take the next step when they blew out the Celtics at Quicken Loans Arena earlier this month. Now, Cleveland looks to inform Los Angeles of the same. And there has been no team better than the Cavs on the road of late, when installed as an underdog or as a small favorite. Indeed, since January 20, 2007, Cleveland is a dominant 47-20 ATS on the road when not favored by three or more points, including 22-6 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss. Take the points with the Cavs. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.
Play on: Cleveland
LT Profits
Los Angeles Lakers -5.0
The Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record in the NBA at 31-7, one-half game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers at 31-8, but we look for the Lakers to make a statement at home in this nationally televised TNT matchup tonight.
The Lakers could use a statement win after losing to another Eastern heavyweight, the Orlando Magic, 109-103 here at home on Friday. Still, that leaves Showtime at 20-3 straight up at Staples Center, where they are winning their games by an average of +9.4 points per game.
Also, no other team in the NBA has had the Lakers number like the Cavaliers, as Cleveland has incredibly won the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs with two of those wins coming in Los Angeles. You can bet that the Lake Show is well aware of this and anxious to atone for this in front of a national audience.
Besides, while the Cavaliers are an amazing 20-0 at home, they are a more human 11-7 on the road, losing to some East teams that are considerably weaker than this Lakers squad. In fact, Cleveland is 1-3 straight up in the last three road games with those defeats coming at the hands of the Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards and the Miami Heat,
This is considerably tougher, and when you factor in the revenge angle at home, we are looking for a Lakers win by at least eight points or so.
Pick: Lakers -5
John Ryan
Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Orleans as the host Indiana slated to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that NO will win this game by 8 or more points and has a 90% probability of scoring 105 or more points. Note that Indiana is just 12-38 ATS (-29.8 Units) in road games when they allow 105 to 109 points in a game since 1996. New Orleans is a strong 36-8 ATS (+27.2 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Pacers like to run an up tempo style of offense and New Orleans has done very well against this style sporting a 20-9 ATS mark versus teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the past 2 seasons. New Orleans is also 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Take New Orleans.
David Malinsky
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Syracuse
In some ways we can understand the early money to Pittsburgh here – the markets tend to like playing on class teams off of a defeat. But at +9 we can not resist buying in with a team that clearly defines our notion of being a “tough out”, in a game that we believe goes to the final possessions before the outright winner is known.
This is not really a “bounce-back” setting for Jamie Dixon and his Panthers. In losing their #1 Rating, and undefeated season, with the frustrating late collapse at Louisville, there is hardly the necessary amount of time to psychologically get back to the top of their game. And note the additional challenges the quick turnaround brings – in having to go from the Cardinal traps and presses, and almost purely man-to-man defense in the half-court, it will now be an evening of that 2-3 Syracuse zone. With only one practice day, and that being a day in which Dixon’s team was physically and mentally tired, we can expect some ugly offensive sequences tonight.
Syracuse also has had only one preparation day, but that is not nearly as big of a negative for Jim Boeheim and the Orange. They wrapped up Saturday’s win over Notre Dame 6.5 hours before the Pittsburgh/Louisville ending, and in addition to the usual film work to prepare, they got to see the Panthers in action in that game. From a tactical standpoint the preparation is not difficult, since the Pittsburgh playbook has not changed much from LY, and from a mental standpoint it is quite easy – the memories of LY’s bitter 82-77 loss at the Carrier Dome, when they led by 11 with 3:49 to play, is arguably the worst feeling any of the current roster has had from any defeat.
Now the machups and the setting call for an intense struggle. In Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson the Orange have some bangers down low that will not be intimidated by DeJuan Blair or Tyrell Biggs, and Johnny Flynn, Paul Harris, Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf (15.3 points per game since coming off of his suspension, despite no starting assignments in that span) on the perimeter bring a lot of savvy and ability. With no matchup advantages, and with that ugly 64.8 percent shooting, the Panthers will be fortunate to merely win here, much less get the kind of breathing room the markets are calling for.
Gimme the loot.
-
January 19th, 2009 06:35 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
BobbyClarkeSports
Portland -6 wager $110 to win $100
Lakers -5 wager $110 to win $100
Syndicate Betting Systems
10* (GOW) Golden St. -4.5
3* Indiana +7
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
LATE STEAM NBA POWER PLAY WINNER
Boston -8
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Trailblazers -6 over Bucks
NCAA Basketball
Pitt -9 over Syracuse
Dennis Hill
THE KING'S 100 STAR CBB SLAM DUNK WINNER
UL Lafayette +15
Teddy Covers
Detroit Pistons -3.5
INDIANCOWBOY
4 Unit Play.Take Under 202 between the Cleveland Cavs @ L.A. Lakers
If you wait until game time, you can get a much better price here as much as 203 I believe. This is why I waited in releasing this play. Sometimes, after you've done this for long enough, you see a line and you know it is meant to suck in the public. Look, this will be the most "bet-game" on the board today. Why? Because it involves Cleveland, it involves the L.A. Lakers, it is national holiday and people bet, it is on national television, this is a rivalry, a class east vs. west bout' and of course, it is one of the last games to even bet on the board so all the chasers will come heavily on this game as will those folks that will look to pad their bankroll. Thus, this is a very public game. Why would the line by 202 in such game? Forget the side, although I do think the Cavs will be very game here. Remember, these two teams have not met this year. The last time Cleveland went played L.A., they beat them on the road 98-95 and that totaled mirrored this. Cleveland was a +4 dog going into that game and the total was set at 203. Well, Cleveland is a +4.5 dog here and the total is set at 202. Cleveland is a defensive team. Cleveland does not want to run with L.A. and will force them into their style of game. Remember, when Cleveland played L.A. at home the game totaled 184 as Cleveland won 94-90. L.A. comes off back to back SU losses to the Spurs on the road and to the unstoppable Magic at home. They will focus on defense today and this game is likely to be a public burial as I believe it will total in the low 190's. Note, that the under is 6-1 for the Cavs following an ATS win, the under is 4-1 when the Cavs are Underdogs and the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. This is a solid public fade and history has proven its worth in that when the line is set this way, it typically means Cleveland will do very well and the game goes in their favor as the total dips under.
4 Unit Play.Take Pittsburgh -9 over Syracuse
My friends, after a 6-1 week in College Ball, let's continue to roll today. We have hit 5 CBB Winners in a row. Who says we can't hit 6 and who says we can't #7 to make it a perfect golden week? My friends, there are a lot of good games today, but I don't think we are going to get one better than to take Jamie Dixon's Pittsburgh team off a loss to Louisville on the road. Look, Pitt to me is still the #1 team in the land and Petino's Louisville team is a tough place to play in their place. Having said that, Pitt returns home ticked off. On top of that, you have a Syracuse team coming off a huge DD win over Notre Dame. Hence, when a team comes off such a big win like that, they are not as "edgy" as "focused". Why? Because they think they are the "shiznit". But, Syracuse is not immune to let downs. Remember, they lost to Cleveland State outright at home. I remember that game as you should do as it was our December GOM as we were on Cleveland State +13 over the Orangemen. Well, don't forget that Syracuse is the same team that lost to Georgetown by 14 on the road (74-88). Syracuse's defense is very questionable. Dixon will have his boys fired up and they will make a strong showing tonight - on MLK Day, to a sold out crowd, on national television, to a conference foe at home. Syracuse is likely in for a let down and Pitt is itching to play after their first loss. Pitt is a veteran team and at home they are dynamic. They beat Georgetown by 16 on the road, Duquesne by 27, Vermont by 29, Siena a top 70 team by 13, St. Johns by 23 and South Florida by 13 at home. I see Pitt winning this game by about 15 points here as they cover the -9 line and win by double-digits as most of the public likely takes it on the chin here. The Orange ar 1-4 ATS following an ATS win and the Panthers are 5-1 ATS following an ATS loss.
Gimme the loot.
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