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January 21st, 2009 04:45 PM #1
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January 21st, 2009 04:53 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
Virginia Tech (12-5, 5-7 ATS) at (1) Wake Forest (16-0, 8-4 ATS)
Wake Forest returns to the court for the first time since assuming the top spot in the national rankings as it welcomes Virginia Tech to Veterans Memorial Coliseum.
The Demon Deacons, who are the last remaining unbeaten team in Division I, come home after back-to-back double-digit road wins at Boston College (83-63) and Clemson (78-68). They easily cashed as a three-point favorite against the Eagles and a 2½-point underdog against the Tigers to improve to 5-0 ATS in their last five lined games. In Saturday’s win at previously unbeaten Clemson, Wake Forest shot 48.2 percent from the field and held the Tigers to 33.8 percent, but it was held under 83 points for the first time in seven contests.
The Hokies have won three in a row and seven of their last eight, and they’re coming off Saturday’s 79-71 home victory over Boston College as a 3½-point chalk. Virginia Tech’s last setback came on Jan. 4 in its only previous ACC road game, a 69-44 loss at Duke as a 17-point underdog. Seth Greenberg’s squad has followed up a 1-7 ATS slump with back-to-back spread-covers.
Virginia Tech crushed the Demon Deacons 80-58 as a five-point home favorite in last year’s lone meeting between the schools. The Hokies are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five battles, but the home team has taken the last four clashes (3-1 ATS).
Wake Forest has scored at least 82 points in 12 of 16 games and ranks in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (85.1 ppg, 5th), field-goal offense (51.1 percent, 3rd), field-goal defense (36.2 percent, 2nd) and three-point defense (28.3 percent, 7th), and the Deacons allow just 65.8 ppg. Wake Forest is 9-0 at home (4-1 ATS in lined games), winning by an average of 23 ppg (85-62).
Boston College averages just 70.1 ppg on 43.8 percent shooting, while giving up 64.6 ppg on 39.8 percent shooting. The Hokies are 5-4 (3-4 ATS) in road/neutral site contests.
Va-Tech is on ATS runs of 8-2 in ACC play, 11-5 after a SU victory and 10-2 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, in addition to its current 5-0 ATS run, Wake Forest is on positive pointspread stretches of 14-6-2 at home, 4-1 in ACC action, 5-1 on Wednesday and 5-0 against teams with a winning record.
The over is 7-2 in the Hokies’ last nine overall, but the under is 8-3 in Wake’s last 11 Wednesday affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST
(20) Villanova (14-3, 6-7 ATS) at (3) UConn (16-1, 5-6 ATS)
The latest matchup of ranked Big East foes comes from the XL Center in Hartford, as UConn guns for its fifth straight win when it hosts Villanova.
The Huskies cruised past Seton Hall 76-61 on Sunday, but came up just short as an 18½-point home favorite, their second consecutive non-cover. During its five-game winning streak – all against Big East foes – UConn is averaging 73 ppg, shooting 49.6 percent from the floor and 42.1 percent from three-point range while giving up 58.4 ppg, 37.8 percent shooting overall and 27.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc. UConn is 2-1 in Big East home games (1-2 ATS).
Villanova has alternated SU wins and losses in its last five games, including its first four league contests. On Saturday, the Wildcats pummeled St. John’s 76-57, covering as a 14½-point home favorite to end an 0-3 ATS slide. Jay Wright’s club is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in Big East road games, beating Seton Hall 89-85 in overtime as a 6½-point chalk and losing 79-72 at Marquette as a three-point underdog.
The Wildcats edged UConn 67-65 as a one-point home favorite last season, improving to 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings. The home team is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes, with the Huskies cashing in four of the last five as a host; the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings; and the SU winner as covered in nine of the last 10.
The Huskies have scored at least 76 points in 13 of 17 games, while holding four of their last five league foes to 61 points or less. Meanwhile, Villanova has put up at least 70 points in five of its last seven games and held five of its last eight opponents to 61 points or fewer.
Villanova is in ATS droughts of 1-4 in Big East play and 3-7 versus winning teams, while the Huskies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games and 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 contests against teams with a winning road record.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools and 4-0 in the last four clashes at Connecticut, and the over is 4-1 in Villanova’s last five against Big East foes. However, the under is on runs of 20-7-1 for Villanova overall, 9-3-1 when Villanova takes to the road, 5-0 for Villanova on Wednesday, 5-1 for UConn overall, 4-1 for UConn at home and 4-1 for UConn in Big East games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN
(10) Clemson (16-1, 6-6 ATS) at (5) North Carolina (16-2, 7-9 ATS)
Four days after tasting defeat for the first time this season, Clemson now faces the difficult task of traveling to Chapel Hill, N.C., for an ACC clash with the rejuvenated fifth-ranked Tar Heels.
The Tigers fell 78-68 to Wake Forest as a 2½-point home favorite on Saturday, just the second time this season they have given up more than 75 points in a game. During its 16-0 start to the season, Clemson posted 11 double-digit victories, and it is 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS in road/neutral-site games. The Tigers are just 1-3 ATS in their last four contests.
North Carolina is coming off Saturday’s 82-65 rout of Miami, Fla., its second consecutive double-digit ACC victory after starting out league play 0-2. However, the Tar Heels barely fell short as a 17½-point home favorite, dropping to 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, including 1-5 ATS inside the Dean Dome.
North Carolina is riding a nine-game winning streak in this rivalry against Clemson, but just 5-4 ATS. Last year, the Tar Heels needed overtime to beat the Tigers twice in the regular season, winning 90-85 as a 5½-point road favorite and 103-93 as an 8½-point home chalk. Then in the ACC tournament championship game, UNC edged Clemson 86-81, again barely covering as a 5½-point choice.
North Carolina ranks second in the nation in scoring at 93 ppg and 14th in field-goal shooting (49 percent). Roy Williams’ team has scored more than 80 points in 16 of its 18 games, including tallying 90 or more eight times. Defensively, the Heels yield 70.1 ppg on just 39.5 percent shooting. Meanwhile, Clemson is putting up 79.7 ppg on 47.8 percent shooting while giving up 63.4 ppg on 40.2 percent shooting, but it has failed to score 70 points in three straight contests.
Despite Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest, the Tigers are on ATS streaks of 5-1 on the road, 6-0 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 4-1-1 in ACC play, 4-1 on Wednesday and 8-2 after a double-digit home loss. North Carolina, in addition to its 3-7 ATS slump overall and 1-5 ATS rut at home, has failed to cover in six of its last seven ACC games and seven of its last eight after an outright victory. On the positive end, the Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday contests and 28-13 ATS in their last 41 versus winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 4-0 for Clemson overall, 11-5-1 for Clemson in ACC play, 4-1 for Clemson following a non-cover and 5-2-1 for North Carolina in ACC action. Conversely, the over is on runs of 4-1 for the Tigers on the road, 4-1 for the Tigers on Wednesday, 5-2 for the Tar Heels at home and 6-2 for the Tar Heels on Wednesday. Finally, all three meetings between these schools last year went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Nebraska (12-4, 4-4- ATS) at (6) Oklahoma (17-1, 8-5 ATS)
Oklahoma tries for its sixth straight win overall and its fourth consecutive victory to start the Big 12 season when it entertains Nebraska at the Noble Center.
The Sooners faced a stiff challenge at Texas A&M on Saturday but held on for a 69-63 victory, covering as a 3½-point favorite as they improved to 3-0 SU and ATS in conference play. Since suffering their only defeat of the season – 96-88 at Arkansas as a 5½-point road chalk – Oklahoma has won five in a row by an average of 21 ppg (80-61) while shooting 48.6 percent and holding the opposition to 34.6 percent.
Nebraska is 5-1 in its last six games, including Saturday’s 73-51 rout of Kansas State as a one-point home favorite. The Cornhuskers are 2-1 SU and ATS in Big 12 action, but the loss was a 65-53 setback at Iowa State as a one-point underdog in their first conference road game. Nebraska hasn’t allowed more than 65 points in any game this season, holding 11 of 16 foes under 60 points, and they rank second in the nation in scoring defense, yielding only 55.8 ppg.
These rivals met just once last year, with Nebraska rolling to a 63-45 victory as a 2½-point home chalk. The Huskers are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings after going 0-6 SU and ATS in the previous six. The host has won and covered the last four regular-season clashes. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 head-to-head battles.
Oklahoma is 10-0 at home (3-2 ATS in lined games), outscoring visitors by more than 20 points per game (83.1-62.6) while shooting 48.4 percent and holding opponents to just 35.7 percent at the Noble Center. Meanwhile, Nebraska is 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway, managing just 55.5 ppg (37 percent) and giving up 60.8 ppg (39.1 percent).
Nebraska is 8-23 ATS in its last 31 roadies, but otherwise is on pointspread upticks of 6-1 in Big 12 play, 4-1 on Wednesday and 5-2 after an ATS win. Oklahoma is on ATS runs of 6-2 in Big 12 action, 5-2 versus winning teams and 8-1 on Wednesday.
The under is 5-2-1 in the last eight Nebraska-Oklahoma matchups, 9-1 in the Sooners’ last 10 conference games and 9-2 in the Sooners’ last 11 Wednesday contests. Also, for the Huskers, the under is on stretches of 7-1 overall, 6-0 in Big 12 play, 4-0 on Wednesday and 5-0 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and UNDER
NBA
Utah (25-17, 22-20 ATS) at Houston (26-16, 19-23 ATS)
After a brief stop at home last night, the Jazz go back on the road for a Western Conference clash with the Rockets at the Toyota Center.
Utah returned to Salt Lake City from a three-game road trip on Tuesday and held off Minnesota 112-107, failing to cover as an 8½-point favorite. The Jazz are 6-2 SU but just 3-5 ATS in their last eight games, and they’ve lost six of their last seven road tilts (2-5 ATS), including a 120-115 overtime loss at Houston as a nine-point underdog on Dec. 27.
Houston is coming off Monday’s narrow 115-113 victory over the Nuggets, coming up shy as a three-point home chalk. The Rockets are 5-1 in their last six games, but only 3-3 ATS, and they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last nine contests. Also, they have won 11 of their last 13 at the Toyota Center, but they’re just 6-7 ATS, including 2-6 ATS in the last eight.
While the Jazz have scored at least 100 points in nine of their last 11 games, the Rockets have held 13 of their last 18 opponents under triple digits.
Utah knocked the Rockets out of the playoffs each of the last two seasons, and including the spread-cover in last month’s loss in Houston, the Jazz are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this rivalry, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Houston. While the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings, the visitor and the underdog have both cashed in eight of the last 11 in this rivalry.
The Jazz are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games against Southwest Division foes, while the Rockets are in ATS slumps of 4-10 overall, 2-6 at home, 0-5 against the Western Conference, 3-7 versus the Northwest Division, 1-4 on Wednesday and 0-5 when playing after one day of rest.
Utah sports “over” streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 7-1 against the Western Conference, 7-2 versus the Southwest Division, 10-4 on Wednesday and 4-0 when playing on back-to-back nights. The over is also 11-4 in Houston’s last 15 against the Western Conference and 7-1 in its last eight versus the Northwest Division, but the under is 18-8 in the Rockets’ last 26 home games and 16-5 in its last 21 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
Cleveland (31-8, 27-12 ATS) at Portland (25-16, 20-21 ATS)
Two days after a blowout loss at the Lakers, the Cavaliers resume their four-game Western Conference road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden for a battle with the Trail Blazers.
Cleveland took a 50-49 halftime lead into the locker room Monday night in Los Angeles, then got steamrolled 56-38 in the second half to lose 105-88 as a five-point road underdog. The Cavaliers are just 5-4 SU and ATS in their last nine games, including 1-4 SU and ATS on the highway, and the winner has cashed in each of those nine contests.
Portland returned from a 2-2 SU and ATS Eastern Conference road trip Monday night and crushed Milwaukee 102-85 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Blazers are on runs of 5-2 SU and 4-2 ATS, and the SU winner is 18-1 ATS in their last 19 games.
The Cavs swept the season series last year, winning 84-83 as a three-point road underdog and 88-80 as a 5½-point home chalk. LeBron and Co. are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with Portland and 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine. However, the Blazers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head matchups at the Rose Garden, and the favorite is on a 10-3 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Despite its 1-5 ATS slump on the road, Cleveland is on positive pointspread streaks of 37-15 overall, 10-2 against the Western Conference, 6-1 versus the Northwest Division, 5-0 on Wednesday, 10-1 after a double-digit loss, 6-0 after giving up more than 100 points in a game and 23-8 after an ATS setback. Portland is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home games and 4-1 ATS in its last five against Central Division foes, but it is on pointspread declines of 3-9 after a SU win, 2-5 after a spread-cover, 2-8 against winning teams and 3-9 when playing on one day of rest.
For the Cavaliers, the under is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-2 on the road, 4-0 when facing Northwest Division opponents, 9-2 when playing on one day of rest and 18-8-1 after an outright defeat. Also, the Blazers are on “under” streaks of 4-1 at home, 5-1 against the Central Division, 43-18-1 on Wednesday and 22-10 after a SU victory. Finally, the last four meetings between these squads have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gimme the loot.
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January 21st, 2009 04:53 PM #3
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January 21st, 2009 04:55 PM #4
The Hand of Justice
DAVE COKIN
TULSA / TULANE
Take TULSA
Tulsa might be without Ben Uzoh tonight as they visit Tulane. Uzoh isn't the best player on the team, but he's a major contributor and runs the offense. But even if Uzoh's ankle prevents him from playing, I see the Golden Hurricane having little trouble here. Tulane is a bad team with one of the smallest home court edges in the land. In fact, should Uzoh have to sit this one out, it might insure greater focus for the road team. Either way, Tulsa should coast to a double digit road win
Jeff Benton
Terrible call with Evansville last night. I've definitely hit a bit of a rough patch with the free plays, but I'm still on an 18-9 run with my complimentary plays in College Hoops, and I'll try to make it 19-9 tonight by backing Oklahoma over Nebraska.
I’m still not sure how good the sixth-ranked Sooners are, but I do know they’re markedly better than Nebraska, which simply cannot put the ball in the hoop when it goes on the road. The Cornhuskers have played four games outside of Lincoln and they’ve lost three, scoring 62, 44, 63 and 53 points in those four contests. That’s barely 55 ppg. Well, tonight, they run up against Oklahoma and its beast in the middle, Blake Griffin, who are holding visitors to the Noble Center to just 62.6 ppg on 35.7 percent shooting. At the same time, the Sooners average 83.1 points on 48.4 percent shooting on their home floor.
The last time Oklahoma on its own court, it obliterated Texas 78-63 as a 4½-point favorite, making 27 of 53 shots (51 percent) and holding the 11th-ranked Longhorns to 23-for-68 shooting (33.8 percent). If the Sooners can dominate a legitimate Top 15 team like Texas, they can surely take care of business against Nebraska, which lost its first Big 12 road game at Iowa State 65-53 and also lost at Arizona State 64-44 as a 10-point underdog in its only game against a ranked team.
Oklahoma has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including four straight in Norman, the last being a 70-53 rout in 2007. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four regular-season meetings.
Throw in the fact that Oklahoma is riding a five-game winning streak, including 3-0 SU and ATS so far in Big 12 play, and with no look-ahead game for the Sooners, and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the chalk.
4♦ OKLAHOMA
Scott Delaney
Today's Selection
The Rams are a lot tougher than Eric Maynor. In fact, against archrival Old Dominion, VCU’s star player sat on the bench and watched his teammates protect and preserve an 11-point lead. To protect and serve turned out to be more than the mantra, as Maynor’s supporting cast not only produced a 17-point win, they it showed us why the 13-5 mark this season – 6-1 in conference play – is more than the senior point guard.
I know we’re laying points on the road, but VCU has covered four of its last five against teams with a winning percentage below .400, while it’s also on ATS runs of 7-2 when visiting a team that loses at home and 7-3 when taking on a team with an overall losing straight-up mark.
This is a mismatch made in heaven, as Georgia State is 5-13 on the year and won’t stand a chance offensively against this well-balanced attack.
VCU RAMS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland +1 at PORTLAND
At a near pick, we prefer to support the road team tonight, as Cleveland looks to get the bad taste of their 105-88 MLK night loss at the Lakers lingering around for an extra day out of their mouths.
Portland took care of business at home over Milwaukee on MLK Day, as the Blazers improved to 15-4 straight up, and 12-7 against the spread at the Rose Garden this year.
Still, Cleveland can counter with one of the better road marks in the Association, as the Cavaliers are 11-8 both straight up, and against the spread this year, and the Cavs have also bested the Trail Blazers in 3 of the last 4 series meetings both SU, & ATS. Included is a season series sweep last year.
This will be the first time the Cavaliers face Portland with Greg Oden patrolling the paint, but as we pointed out, Cleveland is coming off a 17-point flop in the City of Angels, and they should be itching to get back on the hardwood and take out some of their ire on the Blazers tonight.
Play on Cleveland.
4♦ CLEVELAND
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland -1 at PORTLAND
Tonigh's play comes on the NBA hardwood as we play the Cavaliers on the road in Portland against the Blazers.
The Cavaliers have won four of the last five meetings with the Blazers and seven of the last nine. They just lost in Los Angeles on Monday and will be out to regain some momentum with a big win in Portland.
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with the Blazers. They went to Portland and got an 84-83 win last year as three-point 'dogs and then got an 88-80 win in Cleveland as 5 1/2-point favorites.
The Cavs have dropped their last two road games and four of their last five. But they have too much talent for this one and LeBron isn't going to lose two in a row. They are on ATS runs of 37-15 overall, 10-2 against the Western Conference, 47-23-1 after a straight-up loss and 6-1 against teams from the Northwest Division.
Portland is just 2-5 ATS after a spread-cover, 3-9 when getting a day off and 3-9 ATS aftre a straight-up win.
We like the Cavaliers to jump out and get this one tonight. Play LeBron and Cleveland.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Chris Jordan
Northwestern at MICHIGAN STATE -12'
Northwestern almost beat Purdue and knocked off Minnesota last week. A pair of nationally ranked conference foes, and now it’s time for the Wildcats to suffer a bit of a letdown. Or, in my world, what’s better known as a beat down.
Purely betting numbers for this free play, as the Wildcats are mired in ATS skids of 8-21 on Wednesday nights, 1-5 when visiting teams with a winning home mark and 2-5 overall. On the other hand, Michigan State storms into this one having covered six of seven after an ATS loss, 4-1 when hosting teams with a losing road record and 6-2 against teams with a winning mark on the floor.
Looking inside the series numbers, the favorite has covered seven of nine contests, while the Spartans are 7-2 ATS the last nine battles overall.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Karl Garrett
Auburn at KENTUCKY -13
Took it on the chin last night with Ohio State, but still at 4-2 the 6 days with my comp plays.
Billy Gillispie has got it going on right now in Lexington, as the Wildcats come back to Rupp fresh off conference road wins at Tennessee, and at Georgia. The win over the Bulldogs was a prime letdown spot, and the 'Cats came out of Athens with a resounding 68-45 rout.
Back at home Kentucky should be able to easily dispatch an Auburn team that is just 1-4 straight up away from home. It is an Auburn team that was pounded by 27-points on their last visit to Rupp Arena in 2007.
The Tigers are only averaging 62 points per game on the road this year, while the Wildcats are lighting up the scoreboard at home to a tune of 84 points per game.
As you can see, it will only be a matter of time before the Rupp rowdies start hooting and hollering.
G-Man laying the points in this one.
5♦ KENTUCKY
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Under 184.5
The Rose Garden will be the site of tonight’s matchup between the host Portland Trailblazers and the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs enter tonight’s contest off a loss at the Lakers on Monday, 105 to 88 while the Blazers defeated the Bucks at home 102 to 85.
Cleveland is averaging 96.6 points per game on the road this season holding opponents to 90.9 points per game. They are 17-22 Under in all games this season, 7-12 Under on the road, 8-17 Under their last 25 games overall and 1-4 Under their last 5.
Portland is averaging 101.5 points per game this season at home while allowing opponents 92.8 points per game. The Blazers are 18-22 Under in all of their games this season and 8-10 Under at home.
This series has been dominated by the ‘under’ with 14 of the last 22 meetings falling below the posted total. This includes 8 of the last 11 meetings in Portland and the last two in a row when playing in the Northwest.
Data base research has uncovered two systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play Under NBA road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, 47-94 Under the last five seasons. Play Under NBA teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points with a team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, a team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% playing a team with a winning record, 21-49 Under the last five seasons.
The pace and tempo of this game should be dictated by the Cleveland defense as they will be looking to bounce back from that loss to the Lakers. With the combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors all pointing to an ‘under’ we will call for this contest to fall below the posted total of 185.5.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Cleveland / Portland Under 185.5
Alex Smart
St. Louis Blues +240
Two long time rivals the Chicago Blackhawks(25-11-8) and the St.Louis Blues(18-23-4) go head to head tonight , in 4th meeting between these teams this season. The 3 previous games have all gone to over time , with the Blues winning 2 of those tilts.
This past Saturday the Hawks got their first win in this series with a 2-1 extra framer in St.Louis. Turning the trick twice in row, even on their own home ice will not come easily.
The Blues won in their last trip to the United Center, and look like viable bets again tonight, after an impressive 5-4 OT victory vs the Boston Bruins on Monday. The Blackhawks after a nice run, have looked a little ragged in their last trip to the ice, suffering a loss to the Minnesota Wild by a 4-1 count. A worrying trend of late has seen Chicago's young star Patrick Kane score just 1 point in his last 10 contests. Slumps like this have a way of working their way through the lineup which is not a good omen going forward for the Hawks team trying to bust out of a two game home losing streak.
Considering both these sides current form, and the Blues ability to matchup well against their opponents under any venue, make for what I am betting is a viable- value based underdog wager.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Blues are 8-3 L/11 vs Central division teams. The Hawks lost 0-4 L/4 playing on just 1 days rest. Chicago has lost 9 of their L/13 vs Central Division teams.
Play on the St.Louis Blues on the moneyline
Dennis Hill
Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Missouri +1.5
This all comes down to my power ratings being right this time of the year in College Hoops. My power ratings have Missouri better by 5 pointsd in this game. Missouri is road battled tested, and will win this game outright.
Gimme the loot.
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January 21st, 2009 05:03 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
Marc Lawrence
Play On: BYU
Okay, enough is enough. Thats the feeling on the BYU campus these days when it comes to the Rebels, a team that has beat them each of the last two seasons in the Mountain West Conference championship game. To say that the Cougars are ready for this game would be an understatement. They'll take the floor knowing they are 57-2 SU on this court since 2005, including 24-0 SU and 16-6-2 ATS in conference games (6-1-1 ATS with revenge). Toss in UNLVs despicable 3-26-1 ATS record this decade in SU losses against avenging foes and suddenly this game has the makings of blowout.
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Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
Neither team has been buulging the twine like they can but whenever they face one another the team's play high-scoring games. The over is 8-2-1 in the Bruins last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto has played over the total in 2 of their last 3 games. In their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above. 600 the over is 4-1. The team's combined for 13 goals in the last meeting. The over is a profitable 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the team's. Play the over.
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Vegas Experts
Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks
The Knicks covered in Phoenix last month, just barely cashing as 8.5-point dogs in a 111-103 loss. Now D'Antoni gets his former team at home in a great spot. The Suns are not playing well right now, having not covered a game since 1/9. They come off a terrible loss in Boston where the final score simply does not indicate how poorly they played. They trailed by 30+ for much of the game. Phoenix is 7-19 ATS this season when the total is 200 or higher.
Play on: New York
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JRTIPS
UTAH vs. HOUSTON
With two of the Big Three sidelined with injuries, Yao Ming keeps coming up with big performances for Houston.Yao and the short-handed Rockets go for their third straight win tonight as they host a Utah Jazz team that has been infected by injuries all season. Houston (26-16) closes out its five-game homestand on Wednesday following a 115-113 win over Denver on Monday night. Yao hit 13-of-19 from the floor including 5-of-8 in the fourth and finished with 31 points. Houston has won 11 of its last 13 games at the Toyota Center. Yao is averaging 21.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and shooting 67.5 percent from the field as Houston has posted a 5-1 record since dropping three straight from Jan. 2-6. In his last seven home games against Utah, Yao has averaged 27.6 points and 11.1 boards. He had 26 points and 11 rebounds in a 120-115 double overtime win over the Jazz on Dec. 27. Artest, who scored 10 of his game-high 28 points in double overtime in that victory, has missed the last five games with a sprained right ankle and will not play tonight. Tracy McGrady will not play for Houston tonight either as he has missed the last four games to rest his sore left knee. Rafer Alston posted his first double-double of the season on Monday with 18 points and a season-high 11 assists. He's averaging 17.0 points and 6.3 assists in the last four games. Utah won 112-107 Monday over Minnesota and the the Jazz (25-17) but lost Andrei Kirilenko who left in the second quarter with an inflamed right ankle last night. Mehmet Okur scored 22 points on Tuesday, including back-to-back 3s in the final three minutes after the Timberwolves pulled within 97-96. Paul Millsap recorded his 20th double-double of the season on Tuesday with 28 points and 15 rebounds. He missed this season's first meeting with the Rockets due to a sprained ligament in his left knee. Utah brings their mash unit to Houston tonight and right now they don't have enough healthy players to beat the Houston rockets especiallly after osing Karilenko last night. Utah has no answer for Yao and he and his Rockets will have their way tonight with the Jazz.
TAKE HOUSTON-3 1/2
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Brett Maverick Sports
E. Wash -3
Tonight your free selection is off the beaten path as we back Eastern Washington over Montana. E. Wash has been money in the bank as a favorite the last two seasons going 9-1(90%) vs the number. Montana counters as a wallet busting 3-13 ats off a loss vs the conference, and have been a poor play in January going only 24-41 vs the spread. We will back the powerful 90% winning number in this contest. Take Eastern Washington.
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John Ryan
Montana vs. E. Washington
Play: Montana +3
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Montana as they travel to face Eastern Washington slated to start at 10:05 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Montana will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 55% probability of winning the game. AiS also shows an 85% probability Eastern Washington will not shoot better than 46% from the field. Note that Montana is 18-7 ATS over the past 3 seasons when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. Given the heavy slate of games that I have had to research this is an abbreviated version. Always remember that the cast of systems and angles serve to reinforce the AiS grading.
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Frank Jordan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -15
The Lakers are 32-8, 21-3 at home, 11-5 on the road and technically this is a road game for them it is still the Staples Center and their will be Laker fans in the building. The Clippers are 9-31, 4-17 at home, 5-14 on the road and have just one win in their last 10 games. Look for the Lakers to roll all over the Clippers and Kobe to take the 4th quarter off to rest. Play LA Lakers.
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Stephen Nover
New Jersey Nets @ New Orleans Hornets
PICK: New Jersey Nets
New Jersey is in a great spot to spring an upset. The Nets have been idle since Saturday. Their outstanding point guard, Devin Harris, has been pointing to this matchup and the Hornets are extremely banged-up.
The Nets are off an embarrassing 105-85 home loss to Boston. The Nets were so bad that coach Lawrence Frank sat out Harris and Vince Carter during the second half. That didn't sit well with either player, especially Harris. He's pumped for this matchup going against Chris Paul. If Paul is the premier point guard in the league, Harris isn't far behind.
The Hornets figure to once again be missing David West and center Tyson Chandler. Without those two on Monday, they barely were able to beat the Pacers at home. The Hornets won 103-100 on a buzzer shot.
Making the situation even worse for the Hornets is backup center Hilton Armstrong may not play either because of a knee injury. West has back spasms, while Chandler was having trouble putting weight on his ankle. This could mean extended minutes for front-courters Melvin Ely and Sean Marks, a pair of deep reserves. The Nets have the height to take advantage.
The Nets have been one of the better money-making road teams, covering 13 of their 18 away contests.
This is a one-unit play for me.
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Wunderdog
Anaheim at New York Islanders
Pick: UNDER 5.5
The Anaheim Ducks have not been a scoring machine on the road this season where they have played break-even hockey. The last 14 games show them posting just 37 goals for an average of just 2.6 per contest. Right now, and for much of the season, the Islanders' offense has been a joke. They have not scored more than a single goal in each of the last four games. Despite the lack of offense, they have gotten some sound goaltending allowing just nine goals, or 2.25 a game. The Ducks are playing on consecutive nights here, where they have played UNDER to a 70-33-11 mark in their last 114! Enough said, I like the UNDER here.
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King Creole
James Madison -9.5 vs Towson
Based on certain conditions, this SYSTEM has YET to lose so far in 2008/09. And with TWO qualifiers on Wednesday, we'll reveal the details!
It's THAT time of the season in College Basketball. Most call it "IN-season REVENGE". In our Playbook College database, it's called "SSR1" (same-season Revenge). Either way, here's the simple but revealing parameters:
5-0 ATS so far in 2008/2009 for ALL Conference HOME team playing with same-season REVENGE. And your two qualifiers on Wednesday night in this System which has yet to lose are JAMES MADISON (over Towson).... and SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATE (over Drake).
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Chris Jordan
Northwestern at MICHIGAN STATE -12'
Northwestern almost beat Purdue and knocked off Minnesota last week. A pair of nationally ranked conference foes, and now it’s time for the Wildcats to suffer a bit of a letdown. Or, in my world, what’s better known as a beat down.
Purely betting numbers for this free play, as the Wildcats are mired in ATS skids of 8-21 on Wednesday nights, 1-5 when visiting teams with a winning home mark and 2-5 overall. On the other hand, Michigan State storms into this one having covered six of seven after an ATS loss, 4-1 when hosting teams with a losing road record and 6-2 against teams with a winning mark on the floor.
Looking inside the series numbers, the favorite has covered seven of nine contests, while the Spartans are 7-2 ATS the last nine battles overall.
3* MICHIGAN STATE
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Drew Gordon
Memphis at CHARLOTTE -6
While these two teams get lumped together in the "bottom tier" of the NBA, make no mistake, the Bobcats are a team on the rise, while the Grizzlies remain a doormat, especially on the road.
Memphis is just 2-15 SU & 5-12 ATS away this season, burning their backers time and time again! They've lost 6 in a row SUATS, and a road game against a team that clobbered them by 29 points the last time out (in Memphis) is the last thing they need!
That's right, the last time these two played, the Bobcats dominated the Griz, Okafor and Wallace owned the Memphis frontcourt (Charlotte had 70 points in the paint as a team), and it was never close. Now you want a sputtering Griz squad to get it done in the Bobcats house?! Note, for a losing team, Charlotte is a realitvely solid 11-13 SU and a decent 13-11 ATS at home this season.
Finally, I don't see much changing from their last meeting, besides the fact that Raja Bell is now much more accustomed to his team (25 points against Spurs), and playing well. Also, factor in a razor close loss to San Antonio Monday, and I expect the Charlotte to be highly motivated here - Bobcats protect their house, grabbing the cash with relative ease!
Take Charlotte over Memphis in this NBA match up.
3* CHARLOTTE
Wisconsin -3 at IOWA
As someone who's followed the Badgers for some time now, I know laying points on the highway isn't easy, but in this particular case, its the right move and here's why:
Fact is Iowa is playing like garbage right now, having lost 4 of their last 5 SU and 4 straight ATS! Their only SU win over that 5-game span came against Indiana, and they squeeked by 65-60 in a game that was very close. While the Badgers aren't exactly playing great either, they have proven far more conistent than Iowa, and should be highly motivated coming off their home loss to the Minnesota.
Iowa's problems begin with offense, averaging just 56 ppg on 42% shooting over their last 5 games. They've been incredibly inconsistent, and the fact Cyrus Tate is still out, only hurts them that much more. He was their best bigman, and you can expect the Badgers "bigs" to pound the ball inside. Note, C David Palmer played well at Purdue, but let's not get too carried away, as he faces another tough test tonight.
Finally, we've also seen the Hawkeye's intensity wane on the defensive end, allowing 63 ppg on nearly 44% shooting over their last 5. Now granted, 3 of those 5 games were on the road, but nonetheless, this Hawkeyes team doesn't win when they don't play defense. Wisconsin is very methodical, and with Tate out, they'll have their inside/out game working to perfection.
Bottom line, Wisconsin kicks this Iowa team while its down, as the Hawkeyes are playing piss-poor basketball, and draw a Wisconsin team desperate for a win after dropping 2 straight. That loss at home to Minnesota was tough, and I expect the Badgers to come out fired up for this one.
Small play on Wisconsin over Iowa in this college hoops match up.
1* WISCONSIN
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LT Profits
Duquesne +6.5
The Duquesne Dukes have quietly become one of the better shooting teams in the country, and they get the call as decided underdogs when the visit the St. Josephs Hawks tonight.
The Dukes are averaging 79.0 points per game this season while going 12-5 straight up, and that scoring average actually rises to 80.7 points on the road, where they are a good 5-2 straight up. Duquesne is hitting 47.0 percent of their shots this season, but that does not tell the entire story.
You see, the Dukes are hitting on an amazing 55.0 percent of their two-point attempts this year, which ranks them number 15 in the entire country in that category. They are also a good offensive rebounding team, so even when they have missed, they have still made up for it with many second-chance points that have improved their scoring average.
This makes for a terrible matchup for a Hawks team that allows offensive rebounds on an unacceptable 37.5 percent of opponents shots, ranking them 299 in that category. St. Joes is just a modest 9-7 straight up this season, and their hone record of 4-3 is actually worse than the road record of the Dukes.
Now the Hawks are on a 4-0 run both straight up and against the spread, but they have not faced a team as talented as Duquesne during this stretch, and they were fortunate to cover vs. NC Charlotte in their last game as they did not cover the entire game until the closing seconds.
Look for the Dukes to keep this close and possibly win outright.
Pick: Duquesne +6.5
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Phoenix at New York
Pick: New York +6
The Knicks might find a comfort zone here against a Phoenix team that still likes to get up-and-down the court. The Knicks stayed close enough at Phoenix to cover, and interestingly enough, this line is only 2.5 points lower. The Knicks played the other race-horse team - Golden State at home and won a high-scoring affair by 13 points. The Suns may be winning some games, but are a bad bet as they are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31. The have fallen short by trying to take down inflated lines with their high-flying offense. The Knicks are thriving as a 5-10.5 point dog, taking down the number in eight of their last nine and are the valued side here. I'm on the Knicks tonight.
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Yankee Capper
3 Units - Wake Forest -13.5
2 Units - Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5
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Dwayne Bryant
Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +1.5
I like the Bucks in this spot. They're coming home after two horrible road losses at the Clippers (by 9) and Portland (by 17). The Bucks are a different team at home where they are 11-7, as opposed to 9-17 on the road. They've also had success in this series at home, going a PERFECT 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Milwaukee. The Bucks are also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. Southwest Division foes, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss, and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss.
Dallas is coming off a narrow two-point win at Philadelphia. Prior to that, the Mavs had lost four straight on the road, including a 7-point loss at Sacramento, a 28-point loss at Phoenix, and a 20-point loss at Memphis. Dallas is also 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. Central Division foes, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. With a road win already in their pocket on this four-game trip, the Mavs could be caught looking ahead to their next two games on this road trip, which happen to be against "bigger fish" (Detroit and Boston).
Take the Milwaukee Bucks +1.5
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Johnny Guild
New Jersey Nets at New Orleans Hornets
New Orleans Hornets will likely be without Tyson Chandler and David West again tonight, hopefully point guard Chris Paul will have another good night when they square off against the New Jersey Nets.
New Orleans is 1-4 in the last 5 clashes versus New Jersey at home, going 1-3-1 ATS, but the Nets top starters Vince Carter and Devin Harris have been struggling. New Jersey has lost three straight games and its last four on the road. Take New Orleans at home. The Hornets have won ten of its last 12 home games and have won three of the last four clashes against the Nets, including a 107-96 victory at New Orleans Arena in the last meeting on March 7.
New Orleans Hornets -5
GINA
Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Bobcats
The sad Grizzlies have dropped six straight games and 10 of its last 11. Meanwhile, the struggling Bobcats have won five of their last nine, an improvement. Both have played insufficiently, but Memphis has collapse, playing dreadful on both sides of the ball. Go with the Bobcats at home. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Charlotte Bobcats -6
Mr A
Detroit Pistons -5½
Boston Celtics -5½
Dallas Mavericks -1½
Los Angeles Lakers -16
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Gimme the loot.
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