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January 22nd, 2009 02:41 PM #1
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January 22nd, 2009 02:41 PM #2
The Hand of Justice
SPORTS ADVISORS
West Virginia (13-4, 5-9 ATS) at (12) Georgetown (12-4, 6-5-1 ATS)
Georgetown looks to bounce back from a setback to Duke when it resumes Big East play against West Virginia at the Verizon Center.
The Hoyas lost to then No. 3 Duke 76-67 Saturday, getting the push as a nine-point road underdog, though Georgetown is now just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five starts (2-3 SU). In those five games, the Hoyas have allowed an average of 73.6 ppg, nearly 12 points higher than their season average (61.7), and they averaged just 62.7 ppg in the three losses, nearly a dozen points lower than their season average (74.5).
The Mountaineers edged South Florida 62-59 Saturday but fell a mile short of cashing as a 17½-point home chalk, winning their second straight game but failing to cash for the fourth consecutive contest. West Virginia, shooting 43.3 percent from the floor for the season, has been well under 40 percent in its last three Big East contests, hitting only 38.5 percent against South Florida and faring worse than that in a home loss to Connecticut (30.3 percent) and a road loss to Marquette (35.0 percent).
Georgetown is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 72-55 rout laying three points at Madison Square Garden in last year’s Big East tournament. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Hoyas are on ATS upticks of 5-1 in Thursday games, 12-4 following a SU loss and 9-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. On the flip side, along with their current 0-4 ATS slide, the Mountaineers are on pointspread declines of 1-7 after a non-cover, 1-4 in conference play and 3-8 against winning teams.
The under for Georgetown is on rolls of 39-19 in the Big East, 4-1 against winning teams, 14-5 on Thursday and 50-24 at home, and the under for West Virginia is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGETOWN and UNDER
(18) Purdue (14-4, 6-8 ATS) at (21) Minnesota (16-2, 8-4-1 ATS)
Surprising Minnesota, coming off just its second setback of the year, returns home to Williams Arena for a Big Ten battle against surging Purdue.
The Golden Gophers got bounced at Northwestern 74-65 Sunday as a 1½-point road pup, halting a four-game SU and ATS run, all in conference play. Minnesota has been solid at home this year, averaging 73.7 ppg while allowing nearly a dozen less at 61.8 ppg, and the Gophers are shooting at a nearly 50 percent clip on their home floor (49.6), including 40.1 percent from 3-point range.
The Boilermakers routed Iowa 75-53 Sunday as a 12½-point favorite for their third straight victory (2-1 ATS), all in conference play, after opening the Big Ten season with losses from the favorite’s role against Illinois and at Penn State. Purdue has been tough on the defensive end in its last three starts, allowing only 36.4 percent shooting, while the Boilermakers have hit 46 percent on the offensive end.
Purdue has won and cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 65-53 home win last year as a 7½-point favorite. However, the home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes on its home court.
The Gophers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus teams with a winning road mark, but they are otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1 at home, 4-1 on Thursday and 4-1 in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are on ATS rolls of 6-1-1 after a SU win of more than 20 points, 24-9-1 in Big Ten play and 11-5-1 on the highway, but they are on an 0-4 ATS slide following a spread-cover.
The over for Purdue is on tears of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Thursday, 5-1 in the Big Ten and 5-2 on the road. But the under for the Boilermakers is on a 5-0 streak against winning teams, and the under for Minnesota is on runs of 15-5 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on Thursday, 10-3 against the Big Ten and 37-18 at home. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the under is on a 9-0 spree.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(13) UCLA (14-3, 8-8 ATS) at Washington State (11-6, 4-10 ATS)
UCLA, coming off an upset loss in its last outing, aims to get back on track when it makes the trek to Pullman to face Washington State, which has won three in a row.
The Bruins stumbled against Arizona State in a 61-58 overtime loss as a six-point home chalk Saturday, ending a 10-0 SU surge (5-4 ATS in lined games). It marked just the second time all season that UCLA, averaging 75.5 ppg, was held under 60 points – with the first coming in a 55-52 loss to Michigan on a neutral court in the third game of the year. Despite the setback, the Bruins are still averaging 71.4 ppg and 48.6 percent shooting (40.7 percent from 3-point range) in their last five outings, while allowing 60.2 ppg.
The Cougars swept their road trip to Oregon last week, edging the Ducks 61-57 laying six points last Thursday, then dropping Oregon State 74-62 as a 1½-point favorite Saturday to snap a five-game pointspread slide. Washington State is generally playing low-scoring games this season, averaging 59.4 ppg while allowing 52.4, and over the last five games, the Cougars have been outscored by a bucket per game (59.6-57.6) while shooting 40.5 percent.
UCLA has won and covered in the last three meetings in this Pac-10 rivalry and is on an 8-0 SU streak overall (5-3 ATS). The Bruins are 6-0 ATS on their last six trips to Pullman, the favorite has cashed in four of the last five contests, and the road team is on an 8-1 ATS tear.
The Bruins are on ATS upticks of 6-1 against winning teams, 10-3 on Thursday, 36-15-1 on the highway and 38-17 after a pointspread setback. Conversely, along with their current 1-5 ATS slide, the Cougars are on ATS purges of 0-4 against winning teams, 1-6 at home, 1-5 in the Pac-10 and 2-6 after a spread-cover.
The over for UCLA is on stretches of 9-4 on Thursday and 4-1 after a SU loss, but the under is 6-2 in the Bruins’ last eight roadies, and the under for Washington State is on runs of 5-2 overall, 14-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-2 at home and 5-2 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
NBA
Boston (35-9, 24-20 ATS) at Orlando (33-8, 28-12-1 ATS)
Two of the NBA’s best teams square off inside Amway Arena in Orlando when the Magic host the Celtics in an Eastern Conference showdown.
Boston comes into this one having won six straight (5-1 ATS), including a 98-83 road win in Miami on Wednesday, covering as a 5 ½-point favorite. The Celtics have been getting the job done on the defensive end, limiting each of their last four opponents to 87 points or less.
Orlando carries a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) into tonight, including a four-game Western Conference road trip that saw the Magic go 4-0 SU and ATS. They have been doing it with offense, scoring at least 105 points in each of their last six games and winning their last five games by an average of 20 points (116-96.6).
In this series, the host has won seven straight (6-1 ATS) and eight of 10 (8-2 ATS), including the only matchup this year when Boston got a 107-88 home win on Dec. 1 as an 8 ½-point favorite. In fact, the home team is on a 21-6 ATS run in this series and the chalk has gotten the cash in 19 of the last 26.
The Celtics are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on no rest. On a positive note, they are on ATS runs of 37-17 as an underdog, 4-1 on Thursdays and 10-1 as an underdog of five to 10 ½ points. For the Magic, they are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 36-17-1 overall, 10-3 as a favorite, 5-1 as a home favorite, 4-1 on Thursdays and 5-2 against the Atlantic Division.
For Boston, the under is on runs of 22-7 on the road, 11-4 overall, 10-3 as a ‘dog, 10-2 as a road ‘dog and 5-1 on the second night of a back-to-back. Orlando is on “under” streaks of 7-1 as a home favorite, 7-0 on Thursday, 4-1 at home and 41-19-1 as a home favorite of five to 10 ½-points. In this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Washington (9-32, 17-24 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (33-8, 19-22 ATS)
The Wizards continue their West Coast road trip tonight, making a stop in Hollywood as they visit the Lakers inside the Staples Center.
Washington has split the first two games of this four-game swing, losing to Golden State 119-98 on Monday as a 4 ½-point ‘dog and then edging Sacramento 110-107 Wednesday and cashing as a 2 ½-point underdog. The Wizards are just 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) since Jan. 7 and Wednesday’s win was just their third (3-17 SU) on the highway this season (9-11 ATS).
Los Angeles comes into this one off a 108-97 win over the Clippers Wednesday, but failing to cash as a 16-point favorite. Last time the Staples Center court was decorated in Lakers’ colors they were blowing out the Cavaliers on Monday 105-88, covering as five-point favorites.
The Lakers have won the last four matchups in this series, including a 106-104 victory in Washington back on Dec. 5, but failing to cash as 12-point favorites. Last year in Los Angeles these two played a thriller with the Lakers getting a 126-120 overtime win but coming up just short as a seven-point chalk. Los Angeles is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 series clashes and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Washington is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall and 1-4 as an underdog, but the Wizards are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 against the Pacific Division, 7-2 against the Western Conference and 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road ‘dog of 11 points or more. The Lakers are 16-7 in their last 23 on the second night of back-to-backs, but otherwise it’s all negative ATS trends that include 6-16 as a favorite, 6-20 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 at home, 1-10 against teams with a losing record and 0-7 against the Southeast Division.
The Wizards have topped the total in 22 of their last 29 games against Pacific Division teams, but the under is on runs of 9-3 on the road, 10-3 as a ‘dog, 25-11 as a road ‘dog and 6-2 agaisnt Western Conference teams. Los Angeles is on “over” streaks of 16-7 at home, 13-5 as a favorite of 11 points or more and 5-1 at home against teams with a losing road mark. In this series, the over has been the play in six of the last seven inside the Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gimme the loot.
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January 22nd, 2009 02:50 PM #3
The Hand of Justice
JIM FEIST
WASHINGTON WIZARDS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Take: OVER
A brutal, long road stretch for a Washington team going nowhere except the NBA draft lottery. This team is playing no defense allowing 47.5% shooting -- 4th worst in the NBA. They are in the second of a back to back, plus allowed 119 at Golden State. Not a good way defensively to start a trip, a 21-point loss! The Lakers can play tough defense when they are challenged, but this will be one of those run, gun and fun games. After playing the Rockets, Spurs, Magic and Cavs, this is a good spot for LA to focus on scoring, which they do best. LA is on a 7-4 run over the total. Play the Wizards/Lakers over the total.
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Cajun Sports
USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies -6
PLAY: 2* Washington Huskies -6
The Bank of America Arena will be the site of tonights PAC 10 clash between the host Washington Huskies and the visiting Southern California Trojans. USC enters tonights contest off a home win over Arizona on Saturday 65 to 64 but failed to cover as a 7 point home favorite. Washington was on the PAC 10 road on Saturday playing at Oregon State they also won 85 to 59 but they were successful as a 10.5 point road favorite.
USC has managed a 12-5 SU record this season but they are only 7-8 against the number. The Trojans have struggled on the road posting a record of 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. USC has had a little success in PAC 10 play with a record of 3-2 SU but only 2-3 ATS averaging 65.4 points per game and allowing 60.2 points per game.
Washington is 13-4 SU on the season and a very solid 10-5 against the number. When the Huskies are defending their home floor they are 10-1 SU on the year and 6-3 ATS. PAC 10 play has also been successful for the Huskies to this point in the season they are 4-1 SU and 3-2 against the number averaging 81.2 points per game and allowing 69.4 points per game.
When looking at common opponents for the Trojans and Huskies we see that USC is 1-1 both SU and ATS averaging 70.5 points per game and allowing 62.0 points per game while the Huskies are 2-0 both SU and ATS averaging 84.5 points per game and only allowing 63.0 points per game.
The Huskies lost both meetings against the Trojans last season but the USC firepower that led to those wins has now left for the NBA. The Huskies backcourt should be able to dictate the tempo of tonights game and the Huskies also lead the nation in rebound differential, two important keys to the Huskies success tonight.
We also have a CBB System that tells us to Play On CBB favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a cover as a double digit favorite, in a game involving teams with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% on the season, 59-25 ATS the last five seasons.
With last seasons losses certainly fresh on the minds of this Huskies team we will lay the chalk with them tonight as they get the SU and ATS win over the USC Trojans.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Washington Huskies 77 USC Trojans 66
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Marc Lawrence
Play On: Washington
The Huskies are another of our famed One Game Under wonders (teams who finished the previous season one-game under .500) and we like their chances here. Washington took it on the chin twice against last season and certainly have a score to settle. Fortunately for them they horses have the to get it done. They are 10-1 SU at home this season and will be playing off a previous off home loss. And they've owned the Trojans when they've been favored in this series, going 14-1 SU and 12-2-1 ATS. USC checks in off a home battle with Arizona with a 1-5 ATS mark in games after the Wildcats but, more importantly, they have a double-revenger with Washington State up next. It's no wonder were on the Trail Dogs.
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Dave Cokin
North Texas @ Florida International
Play: North Texas +1
Free opinion for Thursday is in the Sun Belt, where North Texas is visiting Florida International. The Mean Green seem to have things back together following a nasty five-game skid and they're back to 4-3 in league play. But as they're two games out of first place in their division, there's no room for a slip up by North Texas against teams they ought to be able to handle. Florida International has shown itself to be fairly capable at home, and this should be a tight contest, but with the road team now trending in the right direction, that's the side I prefer here. I'll take North Texas.
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Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston +5 at ORLANDO
You are not going to find many times during the regular season where you will get the defending NBA champion Celtics plus points, but tonight is one of those occasions, and are recommending a play on the Beantowners plus the points at Orlando.
Boston is rolling again, as they bring a 6-game winning streak into Orlando, fresh off last night's rout at Miami.
Orlando is also rolling, as they come back from a 4-game west coast trek that saw them win, and cover all 4, as they ran their overall win streak to 7 straight!
We feel as "up" as Orlando will be to play host to the Celtics, they will not be able to disguise the fact that they just spent the last 10 days at San Antonio, Sacramento, Los Angeles, and Denver, and will be dragging come the end of this slugfest.
Boston was a 107-88 winner in the season's first meeting back in early December at home, and while we don't see the C's duplicating that result tonight on the road, we have to believe this game won't be decided until right at the buzzer.
Play on the Celtics plus the points.
3♦ BOSTON
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Jeff Benton
Providence -1' at SETON HALL
For Thursday, we’ll stay on the College Hardwood, where I’m on an 18-9 run with freebies, and take Providence in Big East action against Seton Hall.
Providence is an extremely underrated basketball team, and the small impost in this game just further proves that. The Friars are 12-6 on the season, including 4-2 in Big East play. The four league wins were by margins of 20, 8, 8 and 9 points, while the two losses were competitive defeats to ranked foes Georgetown (82-75 on the road) and Marquette (91-82 at home). Meanwhile, Seton Hall (9-8) is barely above .500 on the season and has dropped all five of its Big East games by an average of 16 ppg (89-73). That’s right: The Pirates have given up 89 ppg to Big East opponents, all while getting outshot 48.4% to 42%.
Granted, Seton Hall has faced the cream of the crop so far in the stacked Big East (UConn, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia and Syracuse), but the Friars have scored at least 72 points in eight of their last nine games, including putting up 75 and 82 on Marquette and Georgetown, while shooting 48.7% against those two stout opponents. You’d think of Providence can average 78.5 points against two ranked opponents like the Eagles and Hoyas that they can crack 80 against a defensive deficient team like Seton Hall, which gave up 100 to Syracuse, 92 to West Virginia and 89 to Villanova.
Lastly, the road team has covered six times in the last eight Seton Hall-Providence matchups, and the Pirates have failed to cash in 13 of their last 19 home games. Also, Seton Hall has just one victory – over Fairleigh Dickinson in a non-lined home game – since Jan. 13! Visiting Providence takes this one, and it won’t even be close.
3♦ PROVIDENCE
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Karl Garrett
Wisconsin Green Bay at BUTLER -9
Butler coach Brad Stevens wasn't supposed to have this year's Butler team at 16-1, as the Bulldogs lost all 5 starters from last year's 30-4 squad, yet they are well on their way to another monster season, and the G-Man will back them tonight minus the points at home.
Wisconsin Green Bay brings a solid 14-5 straight up mark into this one, and they have also gone 9-3 against the spread in their lined games, but all 3 of those spread setbacks have come on the road, which is where they happen to be tonight.
The Bulldogs are 8-0 at home, and they have been picking up some momentum at the ticket window, as the 'Dogs have covered their last pair of games, and 4 of their last 5 as they get set to hit the hardwood tonight.
Butler has swept all 4 of the last pair of season series meetings, and the G-Man likes them to get this year's season series off to a flying start with the win, and the cover.
Until the Bulldogs start to show some signs that they are not a "for real" 16-1 team, the G-Man will trust they are indeed for "real".
Lay the wood!
2♦ BUTLER
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Jimmy The Moose
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
Boston is 4-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. In their last 5 games played with 0 days rest between action the Celtics are 1-4 ATS. In their last 8 games vs. a team with a SU winning record the Celtics are 2-6 ATS. Boston is 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. In their last 16 games vs. a team with a SU winning record the Magica re 13-3 ATS. Orlando is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. In the last 27 meetings between the clubs the home team is 21-6 ATS. Boston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Orlando. Play on the Orlando Magic -.
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John Ryan
Washington Wizards vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Under 207
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Lakers/Washington as they host Washington slated to start at 10:35 EST. AiS projects that both teams will have between 13 and 17 turnovers in this game and with the turnovers being a non factor places Washington into a strong UNDER role. Washington is 17-2 UNDER (+14.8 Units) when they commit around the same number of turnovers as opponents this season. Washington is also 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season; 17-5 UNDER (+11.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. A week doesn't pass that I don't get an e-mail request for more info regarding the Ai Simulator. It is a multi layered neural network that is trained to essentially learn from previous game data spanning as many as 15 seasons. If you truly want to learn more about the industry of neural networks then try these key words on your favorite search engine. feed-forward neural networks, radial basis functions, probabilistic neural network, generalized regression neural networks, Bayesian belief networks, fusion, signal-to-noise ratio. That will certainly get you started. Take the UNDER.
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Gimme the loot.
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January 22nd, 2009 02:50 PM #4
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January 22nd, 2009 02:51 PM #5
The Hand of Justice
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the points with the Celtics.
This is certainly another one of those litmus tests for the young and talented Magic and I do expect them to be ready. Plus the Celtics are on a back-to-back after playing in Miami on Wednesday and Doc's squad has not had a great last month or so even with the recent improved play. But if I can grab a handful of points with the defending champs than I am all for it.
Pierce, KG and Allen still lead a team that can get it done against anybody. No doubt Dwight Howard is a total beast and a guy that can dominate the boards and throw in Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson and others and we have a Magic team that is really really good right now. Obviously that is the understatement of the day as Orlando owns the best record in the entire NBA at 33-8.
Orlando is a full eight games up in the division and rolling but I still see them as a little brother to Boston and despite some issues against us tonight I can't help but back tonight's dog and especially when you see how the Magic are back home after the four game road trip out West. Yes they did go 4-0 and now own a seven game winning streak after scoring 100 plus in six straight games but the first game back home is always ultra difficult. Also the C's are still extremely formidable and to get such a number back like this with the defending champs is worth a small play, no matter how white hot the Magic are.
Just a total no-brainer, win or lose!
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Wunderdog
Oregon State at California
Pick: Oregon State +19
The Cal Bears are the surprise team in the Pac-10 this season as they sit at 15-3, and unblemished at home at 11-0. The monster margins they carried early in the season have certainly deflated with the onset of Pac-10 play. Oregon State plays a very methodical style that reduces the amount of possessions in a game. The result has been 13 of 15 opponents held in the 60s or less. That opens the door for a huge dog to hang close in what should be a low-scoring affair. The Golden Bears haven't been so golden coming off a three-game road trip, as the return to home has found their backers getting hammered to the tune of 1-8 ATS. The road team has cashed this game in six of the last seven, and this is just too many points in a low-scoring game. The Beavers hang around in this one.
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Matty O'Shea
Georgetown -5 vs W.Virginia
Georgetown matches up very well with West Virginia and has dominated the Mountaineers in two of the last three meetings, including a 72-55 rout in the semifinals of last year's Big East tournament. The Hoyas return home from a disappointing 76-67 loss at Duke and should take out their frustrations on a West Virginia team that has failed to cover four straight and got pounded 75-53 at Marquette in its lone road game during that stretch. The home team is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, so bet Georgetown as my Big East TV Play O' the Day.
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JRTIPS
PURDUE vs. MINNESOTA
Following its worst conference start in three seasons, Purdue has worked its way back toward the top of the Big Ten standings.The 18th-ranked Boilermakers go for their fourth straight win on Thursday night as they face the No. 21 Minnesota team that returns home after having its own four-game winning streak snapped.Purdue (14-4, 3-2) lost to Illinois and Penn State to open Big Ten play, but has bounced back to win three straight, including a 75-53 home victory over Iowa on Sunday. Offenses facing Purdue are not having success. The Boilermakers have held 14 of their 18 opponents below 40 percent shooting, and their 36.0 field-goal percentage allowed leads the nation. Purdue looks to snap a three-game slide at Minnesota and the Golden Gophers (16-2, 4-2) will try to get back on track after their four-game winning streak was snapped Sunday in a 74-65 loss at Northwestern in which they missed 12 of their first 13 shots in the second half. Minnesota will also have to do a better job controlling the basketball after committing a season-high 19 turnovers Sunday as Purdue is forcing a conference-best 16.7 turnovers per game. Junior guard Lawrence Westbrook led the Golden Gophers with 18 points and a season-high eight boards on Sunday, but Minnesota went scoreless for a 7:32 stretch and couldn't recover. Minnesota will be without Kevin Payton after the redshirt junior point guard was suspended indefinitely for academic reasons. Senior center Jon Williams injured his calf in practice this week and also could miss the game tonight. Purdue has won two straight against the Golden Gophers overall but has lost five of its last six visits to Minnesota. MInnesota will shoot much better at home tonight where they always play weel and had plenty of success on their home court against Purdue. They will be fired up for this Big 10 conference matchup tonight.
TAKE MINNESOTA+1 1/2
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Nelly
Wright State - over Loyola-Chicago
Wright State is playing great ball right now, winning eight of the past nine games with the lone loss at Butler. Wright has played only seven home games all season and has been a winner in each of the last five. Wright is 9-1 ATS in the last ten games and the lines have not yet caught up to the Raiders as the overall record includes the ugly losing streak that started the season. Loyola-Chicago enters this game off a big win over Valparaiso and is unproven on the road having lost five of the past eight road games. Wins over Northern Illinois and Youngstown State offer little credibility and the Ramblers lost by double-digits in all five road losses including two in Horizon play. The Wright State defense is allowing only 53 points per game at home this season so the Raiders should employ a significant advantage in this match-up. Back at home after a long stretch of road games should provide Wright State the perfect set-up for a big win as the Raiders are the vastly superior team despite the slightly better record for Loyola-Chicago.
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Chip Chirimbes
Purdue vs. Minnesota U
Play: Purdue -1
Following its worst conference start in three seasons, Purdue has worked its way back toward the top of the Big Ten standings.The 18th-ranked Boilermakers go for their fourth straight win on Thursday night as they face a No. 21 Minnesota team that returns home after seeing its own four-game winning streak snapped.Purdue (14-4, 3-2) lost to Illinois and Penn State to open Big Ten play, but has bounced back to win three straight, including a 75-53 home victory over Iowa on Sunday. Junior guard Keaton Grant scored in double figures for the first time in seven games, totaling 12 points on 4-of-5 3-point shooting.
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Vegas Experts
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Everyone likes to talk about the Celtics brand of defense, but the Magic are making visitors' offense disappear this season, holding foes to just 89.9 PPG at home this season. Of course, we must give the defending World Champs their just due as they have held their four previous opponents to 86 points or less. Boston is 15-6 Under in road games this season and three of the last four head to head meetings between the teams here in Orlando have gone Under.
Play on: Under
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LT Profits
Utah State -4.5
The Utah State Aggies have now won 12 straight games to improve to 17-1 straight up for the season with the only loss being by five points vs. BYU, and we look for them to stay hot when they visit the San Jose State Spartans tonight.
The only reason that Utah State is not ranked right now is because they play in the WAC, a conference that is currently ranked number 12 in the Pomeroy Ratings. However, the pollsters may have no choice but to take notice if Utah State goes undefeated again this week.
After all, the Aggies are averaging 1.177 points per possession, which ranks them first in the entire country in raw offensive efficiency. They are also 6-0 in their true road games as the loss to BYU was on neutral ground, and most impressively, Utah State is winning those road contests by an average of +10.2 points.
While the Aggies have been efficient, San Jose State has virtually no perimeter game, as evidenced by their low 28.2 percent success rate on three-point shots, and they also turn the ball over too much for our liking. In fact, they have turned the ball over on 22.7 percent of their offensive possessions, ranking them a poor 263 in turnover percentage.
Thus, this is not a team built to come from behind, and that should be their death blow tonight vs. a Utah State team playing with a chip on its collective shoulder after getting shunned again by the pollsters this week.
Pick: Utah State -4.5
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Jake Timlin
Thursday selection is the Boise State Broncos.
Easy underdog selection here and that is Boise State at home as I don’t see them losing. Not when the Broncos will enjoy a huge home court edge as they have won 9 of their 10 home games this year as the Aggie are poor on the highway this season at 2-6. Meanwhile, while New Mexico State had won six straight in this series it was Boise State who ended the Aggies run with a 5 point overtime win last WAC title game to advance to the NCAA tournament. So thanks to Boise State being at home where they are a tough out and playing a New Mexico State team that is not very good this year I look for the Broncos to hold serve at home as they win with ease. All Boise State at home no matter what the price is.
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Gimme the loot.
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January 22nd, 2009 05:32 PM #6
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