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Free NFL Picks: Seattle at Arizona

Written December 28, 2008 by Matt Fargo

arizonaseattle

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I was completely on the wrong side of Arizona on Sunday as the snow storm in New England made the Cardinals look like a JV high school football team. The good news is that the Cardinals are back home in the desert in hopes of putting something together before the playoffs start. The Cardinals have dropped two straight and four of five so the last thing they want is to be heading into the playoffs on a significant losing skid. Look for a full pout effort to gain some momentum back.

Seattle is coming off a very solid home win over the Jets which made it two straight for the Seahawks. Seattle was sky high for that game as it was most likely head coach Mike Holmgren’s last home game so coming up with the same amount of energy and emotion will be a tough challenge. It was the Jets fourth game on the west coast this season and their fourth loss so they definitely played a part in that outcome as well. Seattle is 2-5 on the road and 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record.

The Cardinals have had some bad efforts this season and that game against New England was clearly one of them. Arizona went 0-5 in East Coast games this year and in three of those losses it gave up 56 points to the Jets, 48 to the Eagles and 47 to the Patriots. The Cardinals have allowed a much more respectable 22.4 ppg at home and they now face an offense that is unable to do much. Seattle has scored 23 points or fewer in 11 of its last 12 games and in six of seven road games where it is averaging 15.9 ppg.

The Cardinals offense has been shut down the last two weeks. You can give them a mulligan this past week in the snow whole two weeks ago, they faced the stout Vikings defense. Now they go up against the NFL’s 30th ranked defense and one that allowed 458 yards in three first meeting including 382 yards through the air. The Seahawks passing defense is dead last in the NFL while Arizona remains 2nd in the league in passing offense despite passing for just 142 yards against New England.

Arizona falls into a great situation where you play on a team that was beaten by the spread by 28 or more points in their previous game after the first month of the season. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 years. Seattle meanwhile is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit win as an underdog. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its next game following a game where it lost the turnover battle by more than two. The home team has won and covered four of the last five meetings. 3* Arizona Cardinals