Free NFL Picks: Washington at San Francisco

Written December 28, 2008 by Ben Burns

49ersredskins

Both the 49ers and Redskins will miss the playoffs, so expect a more wide open style on offense this Sunday. Play the Over when Washington takes on San Francisco.

Both teams have been eliminated from the postseason race, so this game is strictly for pride. With no reason to play conservatively, I expect both offenses to attempt to open things up and for this final score to prove higher-scoring than most are expecting.

Note that the last meeting (10/23/05) between these teams had an Over/Under line of just 37 but that it finished with a whopping 69 combined points.

It’s true that the Redskins have been a highly profitable under team this season. However, they haven’t played a truly ‘meaningless’ game until now and their earlier results have helped keep today’s number extremely low. It should also be noted that Washington is one of the few teams which has scored more points on the road than it has at home. Additionally, the Skins’ defense hasn’t been quite as stingy on the road as at home.

It’s been almost exactly a year since the 49ers played a home game with an over/under line in the 30s. The last time that they did so was on 12/23/07. Coincidentally, that game also came against a team featuring a top tier defense (Tampa Bay) and it also came in the final week of the regular season. The game had a total of 36½ and finished with 40 combined points.

Including the result from last season’s home finale, the Over is a highly profitable 11-2 the last 13 times that San Francisco played a home game with a total in the 35½ to 38 range. This season, San Francisco home games have averaged a healthy 47.6 combined points. The 49′ers last six games here have all produced greater than 37 combined points and I look for more of the same on Sunday afternoon. Consider the Over.

Free Pick: Redskins-49ers Over 37½ (-110)

Ben Burns already cashed his #1 NFC Total, a winner with the Giants/Redskins ‘under’ back on 12/7. Of course, given that he’s a REMARKABLE 20-2 the L3 Sundays, its no surprise that he cashed his top total. Ben enters the final weekend of the year having gone an AWESOME 9-1 his L10 football plays & with a PERFECT 6-0 record his L6 NFL!