New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
This Sunday the New York Giants will host the New Orleans Saints in an NFC showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 EST at MetLife Stadium and will be televised locally on FOX. Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as a 5-point home favorite with the total set at 53 points.
Why New Orleans Will Cover:
The Saints playoff hopes took a huge hit in last Thursday’s 13-23 loss at Atlanta. New Orleans has now last two straight since winning five of six and are just 5-7 overall. Even if the Saints were able to win out they would need a lot of help to sneak into the final Wild Card spot. While their chances are pretty slim, I wouldn’t even consider the thought of this team throwing in the towel until they are officially eliminated.
New Orleans certainly appears to be showing some value as a 5-point dog on the road against a Giants team that has lost three of four. On top of that, the Saints have owned the Giants in the two most recent meetings between these two teams. New Orleans won 49-24 at home in 2011 and 48-27 at home in 2009. New York’s defense has simply not had an answer for Drew Brees. He’s threw for 732 yards and 8 touchdowns in those two most recent games against the Giants.
Adding to Brees and his success against New York is the fact that the Saints are an impressive 10-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses – allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is also 10-2 ATS over their last 12 games vs an opposing defense that is allowing 350 yards or more. The Giants are also a miserable 3-13 ATS over their last 16 home games vs a team with a losing record.
Why New York Will Cover:
The Giants had a chance to really take control of the NFC East with a win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football, but they ended up losing 16-17 to fall to 7-5 overall. New York now has just a one-game lead over Washington and Dallas in the division and are in danger of missing the playoffs completely.
This is a game the Giants simply have to have. With difficult road games at Atlanta and Baltimore coming up before they finish the season at home against the Eagles, New York can’t afford to lose at home to the Saints. I expect to see a very focused and energetic Giants team step on the field this Sunday.
New York looked completely lost against the Redskins offense, especially up front on the defensive line. They really had no idea where the ball was going. This week they will be able to get back to their comfort zone and simply get after the quarterback, which is what they do best. Under head coach Tom Coughlin, New York is 18-7 ATS vs excellent passing teams who average 260 or more yards a game. A lot of people seem to forget how the Giants completely dominated the Packers 38-10 at home just a couple weeks ago, a Green Bay team that also relies heavily on the passing game.