Good & Bad Beats of the 2008 NFL Betting Season

Written December 22, 2008 by Evan Altemus

nfl-betting-beats-122208 As I watched in dismay as Dallas blew a 10 point lead to Pittsburgh, I thought to myself, well worst case scenario I’ll get a push if the Steelers kick a game winning field goal. However, the ultimate bad beat happened, as Deshea Townsend intercepted Tony Romo’s pass and returned it for a touchdown. At that point I knew that the Cowboys, as well as my selection, were going to be losers. Dallas was an able to muster a game tying drive and lost the game. This ending made me think of previous bad beats this season, but then I also thought about some of my winners in previous weeks that should have been losers. Let’s recap some of the good and bad beats of my 2008 NFL season.

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Week 3 – Tampa Bay at Chicago: Chicago was leading by ten points with only six minutes left in the game, but the Bears defense couldn’t hold the lead and Tampa Bay sent the game into overtime. Chicago was still in a good position to win in overtime and at least get a push as a three point favorite. However, the Bears defense got a roughing the passer penalty after stopping the Bucs on 3rd and long deep inside their own territory. Chicago would have gotten excellent field position with a punt and won the game with a field goal. The penalty allowed Tampa Bay to continue the drive, and they were able to kick a game winning field goal. This game was the first bad beat of 2008.

Week 4 – San Diego at Oakland: San Diego was down 15-3 at the start of the 4th quarter, and it appeared as though my selection was a sure loser. I was kicking myself throughout the game for picking such an obvious public play. However, the Chargers scored a touchdown at the start of the quarter, making the score 15-10. San Diego then scored another touchdown just two minutes later and converted a two point conversion, putting them up 18-10. I was very optimistic about my selection, until the Charger offense stalled several times. Oakland was able to get a game tying field goal with less than three minutes left, but San Diego got another field goal with less than two minutes left. After Oakland’s offense stalled, it appeared that San Diego was just running out the clock with basic runs up the middle. However, the Raiders once again proved their ineptitude by allowing LaDainian Tomlinson to run around the entire defensive line and break a 41 yard touchdown to the right side with a minute left in the game, giving San Diego backers and myself the ultimate lucky break.

Week 8 – Atlanta at Philadelphia: Philadelphia’s field goal midway through the 4th quarter put them up by 13 points, and it appeared as though the Eagles were going to be a winning selection as 9.5 point favorites. However, Matt Ryan led the Falcons down the field, throwing for a touchdown with four minutes left in the game. Then Atlanta proceeded to force Philadelphia to punt after forcing them to go three and out. However, the Falcons punt returner touched the ball without catching it, and Philadelphia recovered. They were on their way to running out the clock with simple runs up the middle, until Brian Westbrook broke through and scored a 39 yard touchdown run. This lucky break enabled my Philadelphia -9.5 selection to be a winner in a game that could have gone either way from a point spread perspective.

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Week 11 – San Diego at Pittsburgh: An article about good and bad beats would not be complete without this game. Originally, I had a lean towards Pittsburgh in this game but decided to leave it off of my card until the weather conditions came out. After discovering that conditions were going to be cold and snowy, I decided to make it a late release selection of Pittsburgh -5. Needless to say I was ecstatic when Troy Polamalu took a potential fumble to the end zone for the ultimate backdoor cover. However, something inside of me said wait a minute; just keep watching to make sure it’s a touchdown. I watched in horror as referee Scott Green made the wrong call and took the touchdown away. It almost seemed like this game was payback for the previous two breaks I got earlier in the season.

As you can see, good and bad beats cancel themselves out for the most part over the course of a season. Most people only remember their bad beats and blame them for their inability to make a profit. However, over the long run, the intelligent bettor knows to expect such things and doesn’t allow them to skew his judgment.

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1 Comment

Comments

One Response to “Good & Bad Beats of the 2008 NFL Betting Season”

Jack Jones on December 22nd, 2008 1:27 pm

Evan,

Thanks for reminding me about Week 11 when that blown call cost me a 5-0 week. Pitt was my only loss!

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