2011 Good Sam RV Insurance 500 Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
Last week at the Brickyard 400, Paul Menard shocked everyone by winning his first career Sprint Cup race. Menard still has a lot of work to do if he wants to make his way into the Chase. The points standings will be on the minds of a lot of drivers this week, as they gear up for the 2011 Good Sam RV Insurance 500. With just six races left in the season, there isn’t a whole lot of room for error for those sitting on the edge. The race will be held at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pennsylvania. It’s the second of two races that are held at this track each season. Jeff Gordon won the first stop at Pocono, bringing home the checkered flag at the 5-Hour Energy 500.
Pocono Raceway is also known as the “Tricky Triangle.” The triangular shaped track is big and flat, which puts a big emphasis on fuel strategy. One thing to keep in mind when handicapping this race, is just because a driver does well at the first stop at Pocono, doesn’t mean he is going back it up with another strong finish in the fall. The last driver to win both races at Pocono was Jimmie Johnson in 2004. So if you were thinking about locking in Gordon this week, you might want to reconsider.
For those of you who are thinking about betting on the race this weekend or just want to see who has a good shot of winning, here is a look at the three drivers I feel have the best shot at making their way to victory lane.
Denny Hamlin (+400) – Hamlin is the odds on favorite to win this race, and it comes as no surprise when you consider the success he has had at Pocono of late. Hamlin finished just 19th at the 5-Hour Energy 500 earlier this year, but hadn’t finished worst than fifth in his previous three starts, including wins at this race in 2009 and the opening race at Pocono in 2010. Hamlin not only has a strong history at this track, but he needs a big finish to make the Chase. He is currently 11th in the point standings.
Jimmie Johnson (+500) - I had the No.48 car as my favorite to win the Brickyard 400 last week, but he failed to deliver, finishing 19th. I will stick with Johnson again this week, as this is the time of the year where he has notoriously got things going. While Johnson hasn’t won at Pocono since taking both races in 2004, he has finished in the top 10 in ten of his last 13 starts, including a 4th place finish at this track earlier in the year. The value isn’t great, but outside of Hamlin there isn’t a better driver to put your money on this week.
Kurt Bush (+1000) – While Busch sits comfortably in sixth place in the points standings, he is definitely a driver to keep your eye on this week. Busch won this event in 2005 and 2007 and finished 2nd at Pocono earlier this season. It was the fifth time in his career that he has ended a race at Pocono as the runner-up. While Busch has just two top 10 finishes in his last five starts, one of those was a win at the Toyota/Save Mart 350.
Complete Odds to win the Good Sam RV Insurance 500
| AJ Allmendinger | +7000 |
| Bobby Labonte | +8000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +4000 |
| Brian Vickers | +7000 |
| Carl Edwards | +800 |
| Clint Bowyer | +3000 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | +3000 |
| David Ragan | +5000 |
| David Reutimann | +7000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +400 |
| Greg Biffle | +2000 |
| Jamie McMurray | +8000 |
| Jeff Burton | +5000 |
| Jeff Gordon | +500 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +500 |
| Joey Logano | +5000 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya | +4000 |
| Kasey Kahne | +3000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1200 |
| Kurt Busch | +1000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| Marcos Ambrose | +8000 |
| Mark Martin | +5000 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +6000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +1500 |
| Paul Menard | +6000 |
| Regan Smith | +8000 |
| Ryan Newman | +3000 |
| Tony Stewart | +1200 |
| Field (Any Other Driver) | +8000 |
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