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Effect of Roy Halladay Trade on 2010 Blue Jays

Written December 23, 2009 by Anthony Moretti

The general perception among MLB betting fans is that the Toronto Blue Jays will be a horrible baseball team this year. On the surface it makes sense. A team that was barely competitive last year just traded away their best pitcher for a boat load of prospects and they didn’t receive anyone who is MLB-ready right now.

Even so, that’s not a good enough reason to sell the Blue Jays.

Last year, the Blue Jays regular season win total was set at 80.5 and clearly that line was inflated. The bookies took a hit on that line simply because they didn’t anticipate the Jays being quite that bad. But with the trade of Halladay, combined with how the Jays finished, combined with how many sharps hammered he Jays under last year should lead to a regular season win total much lower.

There is no question that the Jays will not be a good team next year. Not only did they just trade away Roy Halladay, the best pitcher in baseball, they don’t have a pitcher in line to suck up his 200-innings pitched.

While they are lacking a No. 1 pitcher, they are also lacking a No. 2 starter as well. Clearly, the Jays will be employing the youth movement. They still have Ricky Romero, who pitched like an ace at times, Kyle Drabek, the blue-chip prospect from the Halladay trade, Shaun Marcum, who has a career ERA of 3.25 and also Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan, who might get into the mix.

Sure, it’s a mixed bag and the Jays don’t exactly have the batting lineup to support a young staff but this isn‘t worst rotation around.

One thing the Jays do have is a decent bullpen, which helped the rotation last year. Another move they made this week added Brandon Morrow,

The Jays won’t be a good team – that much is clear. But if the sportsbooks overreact to the Halladay trade and so do the bettors, there will be value with this team.

This move isn’t addition by subtraction by any means, but this team won’t be as bad as some sports handicapping sharps are projecting.

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