Handicapping the 2009 Conference Tournaments
Written March 9, 2009 by Jack Jones
One of my favorite times of the year kicks off this week with the major conference tournaments paving the way to the NCAA Tournament. It’s four solid weeks of college basketball betting to finish off another great year. Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though as we take a look at handicapping the 2009 conference tournaments.
It’s always hard to go against the favorites when you are looking for bets to make on who is going to win each conference, but the value is normally with the middle tier teams. They have a lot to play for, either to earn an at-large bid or to steal an automatic spot. The sportsbooks know that the public loves betting the favorites, so there is rarely any value with these teams.
That is why you will find the odds on a team like Michigan State at +120 to win the Big Ten. Most of the sharp bettors think that the Spartans are over-rated and the Big Ten is actually a pretty competitive league without much separation between the top four clubs. If you agree then you should look at teams like Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, or a dark horse like Ohio State.
One team the sharp bettors are honing in on are the Clemson Tigers at +1000. This team has a solid shot at winning the ACC if they can get past North Carolina. The Tar Heels are a significant favorite with most people only worrying about Duke or Wake Forest beating them. If the Blue Devils make a championship game against the Tar Heels then this time you will most likely find UNC listed as four-to-five point favorites.
The Big East will offer bettors plenty of chances if they think Pittsburgh can be knocked off. Connecticut is close behind and could be played heavily by bettors since they were the No. 1 ranked team several times this year. Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, and West Virginia all show some long odds and possible value, but the problem is that they would have to beat a lot of top seeds in order to claim a title.
Down in Big 12 country Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are thought to be significant favorites. There isn’t much seperation between the Sooners, Tigers or Jayhawks but after the top three there is a real dropoff. Maybe look at Texas A&M if you want a sleeper in the Big 12.
The Bruins are the favorite to win the Pac-10, partly due to their recent success in tournament play and partly because the games will be played nearby at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Washington, Arizona State, USC, and California though all should have a chance, and the Golden Bears would be the underdog we would go with. Also, Arizona is listed at +1200 at the online books and could be a surprise.
Tennessee has been inconsistent all year long, but with the talent they have are considered the favorites to win the SEC. LSU and Florida are teams to look out for, especially with the tournament being played in St. Petersburg. The Gamecocks from South Carolina, Auburn and Kentucky are three teams you won’t want to look past either.
If you want help in beating the NCAA basketball odds to finish off the season, then we strongly suggest taking a look at some of the college basketball picks packages offered by our handicappers!
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Handicapping Conference Tournaments
- 2009 Atlantic Sun Conference Basketball Tournament Predictions
- 2009 Conference USA Men’s Basketball Tournament Predictions
- 2009 Big West Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament Predictions
- 2009 Horizon League Conference Basketball Tournament Predictions
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