2011 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 21 Southern Miss Golden Eagles are set to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. The game will be played at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu and will be televised nationally on ESPN. The Wolf Pack knocked off Boston College 20-13 in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl last year, while Southern Miss loss 28-31 to Louisville in the Beef O’Brady Bowl.

Taking a look at the college football bowl spreads, oddsmakers currently have Southern Miss favored by 6-points over Nevada with the total set at 61 points.

Nevada:

The Wolf Pack were unable to live up their incredible 2010 season where they finished with a 13-1 record, but that was expected after losing starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick and their top two rushing threats. Nevada ended up finishing just 7-5 overall, but did finish tied for second in the WAC with a 5-2 conference mark. Their two conference losses came against Louisiana Tech and Utah State by a combined eight points.

Offensively the Wolf Pack finished 5th in the country in total yards per game, averaging 522 yards every time they stepped on the field. However, they were just 31st in points per game at 32.9. Head coach Chris Ault’s pistol offense finished 8th in the country with 251.8 ypg on the ground, and were 30th in passing at 271.0 ypg.

The big question coming into this game is who will start at quarterback for the Wolf Pack. Red-shirt freshman Cody Fajardo had won over the starting job from senior Tyler Lantrip, but was injured in the loss against Utah State. Lantrip took back control of the job, but suffered a concussion in the season finale against Idaho. Both are listed as questionable on the injury report. If both are unable to play, sophomore Mason Magleby will likely get the start.

Fajardo was the best of the three during the regular season, and will likely get the call if he is able to play. Fajardo completed 71.4% of his passes for 1,647 yards, but had just six touchdowns to five interceptions. What makes Fajardo the favorite of Ault is his ability to add to the running game. Fajardo finished third on the team with 680 yards, while rushing for a team-best 11 touchdowns.

Nevada also has a couple of talented running backs in Lampford Mark and Mike Ball, who combined for 1,432 yards and 11 scores. If Fajardo and Lantrip are both unable to play, you can expect to see a lot of these two against the Golden Eagles.

The key to this game will be whether or not the Wolf Pack can get the ground game going against a stingy Southern Miss run defense. The Golden Eagles finished 19th in the country against the run, allowing just 112.6 ypg.

Southern Miss:

The Golden Eagles put together their best season under head coach Larry Fedora. They won the Conference USA East with a 6-2 record and would go on to stun an undefeated Houston team 49-28 in the Conference USA Championship Game. Southern Miss finished up 11-2 overall, thanks to a perfect 4-0 non-conference run that included wins over Louisiana Tech and Virginia.

However, the success came at a price for the Golden Eagles, as it was just recently announced that Fedora will take over as the head coach of North Carolina. The good news for the players is Fedora will coach for Southern Miss in the bowl game.

Offensively the Golden Eagles have an explosive offensive attack that averages 37.8 ppg, and they can beat you with both the run and the pass. They finished 31st in passing at 263.2 ypg and 23rd in rushing at 207.8 ypg.

Senior quarterback Austin Davis finished off his career with a monster season, throwing for 3,331 yards and 28 touchdowns. Davis comes into the bowl game off a remarkable performance against Houston, where he threw for 279 yards and four scores.

The Golden Eagles rushing attack will throw a number of talented backs at the Nevada defense. Jamal Woodyard led the way with 683 yards, but was one of six different players who finished with over 290 yards on the ground. The other two backs that figure to get a lot of the carries against the Wolf Pack are Tracy Lampley and Desmond Johnson, who combined for 132 yards in the win over Houston.

If this team can overcome the fact that they are losing their head coach, they should be able to move the ball with ease against a soft Nevada defense. The Wolf Pack are 44th against the run (145.4 ypg) and 62nd against the pass (226.6 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Nevada is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.

Southern Miss is 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Predicted Score: Southern Miss 35, Nevada 29

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

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