2011 Heluva Good 400 Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
Jeff Gordon brought home his second win of the season last week at the 5-Hour Energy 500 at Pocono Raceway, and will look to keep it rolling this week as the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan for the 2011 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. It is the first of two races held at Michigan, as the Sprint Cup Series returns to Michigan International Speedway in late August for the Michigan 400. The race for this week is scheduled for Sunday at 1:00pm ET and will be televised nationally on TNT.
Last year Kenny Hamlin won this event, and then later finished runner-up in the fall race, where Kevin Harvick took the checkered flag. While past success is always a good thing to look at when you are making your picks to win each week, I don’t think either of these drivers will take home the win this weekend. Harvick’s win was just his third top five finish at Michigan International Speedway in 20 career starts, and Hamlin has yet to get things going in 2011.
Here is a look at the three drivers that I feel have the best shot at making their way to victory lane this weekend.
Carl Edwards (+500) -Edwards continues to lead in the point standings, and is the odds on favorite to win this week. While Edwards’ strong start to the 2011 season has a lot to do with him being favored this week, he has the best average finish at Michigan International Speedway of any driver in the field this weekend. His average finish is 6.3 in 13 starts at this track. Two of those starts have resulted in wins (2007, 2008) and 10 of the other 11 starts have seen him finish 12th or better, including a 3rd place finish in the fall race last year.
Matt Kenseth (+1000) - My second pick goes on Edwards’ Roush Fenway Racing teammate Matt Kenseth,who also has a great track record at Michigan (second best average finish). Kenseth also has two career wins on this track, with the last one coming back in 2006. Kenseth has been rock solid over his last four starts this season. After winning the FedEx 400 (second win this season), he finished 14th at the Coca-Cola 600, 6th at the STP 400, and 8th last week at the 5-Hour Energy 500.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1000) -2011 has marked the return of the No. 88 car of Dale Earnhardt Jr. While Earnhardt Jr. remains winless over his last 107 races, he comes into the race this weekend off three straight top 10 finishes and is currently sitting third in the point standings. Michigan International Speedway just so happens to be the place of Earnhardt’s last win, and with the way he is racing it just feels like he is going to break through and get that win sometime soon. He already has two runner-up finishes this season, and should have a ton of confidence heading into the race this weekend. At +1000 I think there is solid value on both Kenseth and Earnhardt Jr.
Complete Heluva Good! 400 Odds
| AJ Allmendinger | +7000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +6000 |
| Brian Vickers | +3000 |
| Carl Edwards | +500 |
| Clint Bowyer | +2500 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | +1000 |
| David Ragan | +3500 |
| David Reutimann | +7000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 |
| Greg Biffle | +1200 |
| Jamie McMurray | +6000 |
| Jeff Burton | +5000 |
| Jeff Gordon | +1000 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +700 |
| Joey Logano | +4000 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya | +5000 |
| Kasey Kahne | +2000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1000 |
| Kurt Busch | +1500 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| Marcos Ambrose | +7000 |
| Mark Martin | +4000 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +5000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +1000 |
| Paul Menard | +7000 |
| Regan Smith | +8000 |
| Ryan Newman | +3500 |
| Tony Stewart | +1200 |
| Trevor Bayne | +8000 |
| Field (Any Other Driver) | +8000 |
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