2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The California Golden Bears are set to take on the Texas Longhorns in the 2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl. The game will be played on Wednesday, December 28 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 ET and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Both teams will be excited to play in this game after a rare season where they didn’t qualify for a bowl.

Taking a look at the college football bowl lines, oddsmakers currently have Texas favored by 3-points over California with the total set at 47.5 points.

California:

Head coach Jeff Tedford appears to have the Golden Bears headed back in the right direction after a miserable 5-7 season in 2010. California finished up 7-5 overall with a solid 4-3 record in the newly formed PAC-12. This team comes into their bowl game playing their best football of the season. After losing four of five to fall to 4-4 overall, the Golden Bears finished 3-1 down the stretch with their only loss coming in a 28-31 defeat at then No. 9 Stanford.

A big reason California got things going in the right direction was a renewed rushing attack that averaged 228 ypg over their final four games. Junior running back Isi Sofele is the main culprit behind the Golden Bears surge on the ground. Sofele rushed for 569 yards and three touchdowns over his final four games.

Focusing on the ground game more seems to have made things a lot easier for junior quarterback Zach Maynard. The Golden Bears spent the early part of the season throwing a lot, and while Maynard put up some big numbers, he had just 12 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in his first eight games. While he didn’t throw for as many yards, in the final four games he completed 68% of his passes with five touchdowns to just one interception.

The big question for California is whether or not they will be able to keep that rushing attack rolling against a stingy Texas run defense. The Longhorns come in 11th in the country, allowing just 103.7 ypg on the ground.

Texas:

Texas ended up finishing the season with a 7-5 record, but were just 4-5 in Big 12 play. While it’s an improvement from last year’s dreadful season, it is far from what fans wanted to see this season. Texas really struggled to deliver in big time games. Their four losses came against Oklahoma (17-55), Oklahoma State (26-38), Missouri (5-17), Kansas State(13-17), and Baylor (24-48). Playing in the Holiday Bowl isn’t going to have the fans all that excited, but I believe this team needs to win this game to get some positive vibes going into next season.

The Longhorns offense was better than it was a season ago, but still managed to score just 28.7 ppg. Junior quarterback Garrett Gilbert was benched early after a terrible start. Sophomore Case McCoy and true freshman David Ash battled back and forth for the job the rest of the season. McCoy has shown the most promise, but still has a long ways to go. In their last game against Baylor he threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns, but a lot of that was negated by the fact that he had four interceptions. Ash was primarily used as a rushing threat, as he finished with just three touchdowns to eight picks.

When Texas had success offensively, it was usually a result of the ground game. The Longhorns finished with the 19th best rushing attack in the country, averaging 210.4 ypg. True Freshman Malcolm Brown led the way with 707 yards and five scores, while Joe Bergeron and Foswhitt Whittaker (out for season) combined for 840 yards and 11 scores.

Texas could be in for a tough game offensively against the Golden Bears. California comes in with the 25th ranked defense in yards allowed (339.4 ypg), finishing 35th against the run (130.0 ypg) and 42nd against the pass (209.4 ypg).

Betting Trends:

California is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.

Texas is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Bowl games.

Predicted Score: Texas 25, California 22

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

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