2011 Houston Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Houston Cougars came into the 2010 season with high expectations after going 10-4 in 2009. Injuries plagued them all year as QB Case Keenum was forced to take a medical redshirt after getting hurt against UTEP and knocked out for the season versus UCLA. The Cougars would struggle without their starting QB, falling to 5-7 on the year while missing out on a bowl game. With Keenum earning a sixth year of eligibility, this team is primed to make a run at the Conference USA title.

Houston welcomes back 12 starters and 52 letterman who will be looking to make amends for a lost season. Head coach Kevin Sumlin is one of the best in the business, and he has led Houston to a perfect 3-0 record against Top 25 teams in his three years here. That includes a huge road win in 2009 at Oklahoma State as a 15-point underdog. Here is a look at their offense and defense heading into the 2011 season, as well as my prediction on where the Cougars will finish in CUSA.

Offense:

Houston still managed to put up 37.7 points and 481 total yards/game last season despite not having Keenum for the final 10 games. He helped those averages in the first two though, leading the Cougars to 68 points against Texas State and 54 versus UTEP. Keenum already has the school record with 13,586 career passing yards, and came into last season needing 4,167 yards to pass Timmy Chang for the all-time NCAA mark. He’ll easily get it if he can just stay healthy. Houston has the luxury of having a couple proven backups in sophomore David Piland and senior Cotton Turner , who each gained valuable experience at QB in Keenum’s absence last year.

The Cougars are very deep at running back heading into the season. Senior Bryce Beall led last year with 870 rushing yards on 5.3/carry with 12 touchdowns to earn first-team All-CUSA honors. Sophomore Michael Hayes (658, 4.2, 8) finished second on the team in rushing, and led all RB’s with 30 receptions for 327 yards and 2 scores. Sophomore Charles Sims was academically ineligible last season and really had a great chance to steal the job from Beall had he been able to keep his grades up. He figures to be the No. 2 back and is probably the most talented of the bunch.

This team loses two very productive receivers in James Cleveland and Kierrie Johnson, but they bring back their top wideout in Patrick Edwards. He finished with 71 receptions for 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, averaging 15.5/catch. Seniors Edwards and Tyron Carrier (53, 480, 1) are both returning starters and lead the receiving corps this year. Senior EJ Smith (9, 175, 1) takes the other starting position and figures to play a much more prominent role in the offense in 2011. Adding depth are Demetrius Woods, Gino Collins, Marcus Williams, Langston Williams and Desmond Bonds. This group is less experienced, but should produce better numbers with Keenum throwing it to them.

The offensive line held up very well last season. They made room for 153 rushing yards per game on 4.5/carry while allowing only 12 sacks. They lose a lot of talent from that group this season. C Jordan Shoemaker starter for 2.5 years, RT Roy Watts was a two-year starter, and LG Isaiah Thompson started two years and earned second-team All-CUSA last season. They do bring back junior LT Jacolby Ashworth and senior C Chris Thompson, who has earned first-team All-USA each of the past two seasons. Sophomores Ty Cloud (LG) and Ralph Oragwu (RT) and freshman Bryce Redman (RG) are asked to step in and start right away. That means that this is going to be a very inexperienced group, and as a result their O-line play is likely to suffer.

Defense:

Houston has been known for having a high-powered offense through the years, but they’ve also been known for having one of the worst defenses in the country. They have yielded over 30 points/game and more than 400 total yards/game in each of the past three seasons. Last year they gave up 32.2 points and 433 yards/game. This unit figures to be one of the most improved in CUSA considering they return six starters and each of their top five tackles from a year ago.

Where they need their most improvement is along the defensive line. The Cougars allowed opponents to torch them for 209 rushing yards per game on 4.8/carry. They switched to a 3-4 scheme last season, but only had one returning starter up front once Zeke Riser was out for the season after a torn ACL in the spring. The sophomore DT Riser is back, as are senior DE David Hunter (51 tackles, 7.5 for loss in 2010) and junior DE Delvin King (36, 5.5). That essentially give them three returning starters along the d-line, plus they add JUCO transfer Dominic Smith who is expected to start right away at NG. He takes the place of junior Tyrone Campbell, who made eight starts last season but was not productive. The numbers against the run will improve this year thanks to a more experienced and talented d-line.

Houston brings back perhaps the strongest set of linebackers in the conference. Their top three tacklers in WILL LB Sammy Brown (76 tackles, 20 for loss), MO LB Marcus McGraw (110, 7) and SAM LB Phillip Steward (84, 9) all return. They do lose #7 tackler Matt Nicholson (57, 5.5), but bring in talented JUCO MIKE LB Lloyd Allen to take his place. Efrem Oliphant (66, 4.5) was the #5 tackler last year and should prove to be a very reliable backup amongst these studs.

They secondary played fairly well last season, holding opponents to 224 passing yards on 59.2% completions. But while the Cougars get better along the front seven, they are likely to suffer a drop in production amongst the back four. Houston loses four defensive backs who all started in at least six games last season. Their lone returning starter is senior FS Nick Saenz (#4 tackler, 72 stops, 7 passes defensed) who earned fourth-team All-CUSA honors last season. I’m expecting two JUCO transfers in DJ Hayden and Chevy Bennett to start at cornerback, while Texas A&M transfer Colton Valencia takes over at strong safety. The numbers may be down from last year, but at least Sumlin has brought in some extra talent to help out in the secondary.

Conference USA Prediction: 1st Place West Division – While it’s easy to pick Houston to win the West just because Keenum is back, it’s not the only reason why I like this team. The backfield is loaded with talent at running back, and two starting receivers return, led by Edwards. Where I really see the most improvement coming from this team is on defense. The stop unit returns their top five tacklers from last year, and they should be much better against the run with a dominant front seven. Their schedule sets up very well with three easy home games and SMU, as well as three easy road games against UTEP, UAB and Tulane. Their one real test will come at Tulsa in their regular season finale, but Keenum has proven he can take his troops on the road and win a big game. They only lost to Tulsa by 3 points last year despite playing with a backup QB and committing 5 turnovers. Houston is the team to beat in Conference USA.

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Other Resources:

Bettors World – Nice preview on the team that shows why they are favored to win the conference.

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