How Sportsbooks Set Betting Odds
Written February 27, 2009 by Jack Jones
There is no doubt that the odds makers at the major online sportsbooks have great jobs, but it’s also a stressful career. They have to make sure that the betting lines they release are an accurate reflection of the public’s perception or else they could quickly find themselves out on the street. There are still people out there who think that the bookie’s job is to pull the wool over players’ eyes and try and win their money. However, the books just want to grind away their profit with the juice so let’s take a look at how the odds are set.
Totals
Las Vegas sportsbooks and online shops alike pay close attention to the numbers released by the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which is a private company that provides a service of setting the odds for casinos. However, an online book like Bodog will take into account their customers’ habits in terms of betting the over or under for certain teams in certain situatoins. Plus, injuries and changes in coaching strategies are not reflected in the early lines released by LVSC, so the book has to adapt as new information comes forward. It’s extremely important to take any news about the expected pace of the game into account since how many shots taken during the 48 minutes will have a direct effect on the total score.
Line Movements
The goals of the bookie is to have balanced action on the game, so the winners get paid by the losers and the sportsbook collects their profit from the vigorish. That rarely happens in real life, especially in sports that do not use point spreads. If Team A is getting all of the action then they will move the line toward Team B to try and balance out the money. I know Bodog’s favorite trick is to move the vig from -110 to -105 or +100 before moving the actual spread a half-point or more.
Can You Profit from Line Movements?
Without a doubt. It’s easier to do in football or during the first set of games during the NCAA basketball tournament because there are several days between when the lines come out and the games are played. The betting public tends to pile money in on their favorite teams once they get off work on Fridays so if you anticipate the line moves coming at these times you can take advantage. Another way to use line movements to your advantage is through middling. Let’s say it’s Tournament time and the first round has LSU taking on Arizona. LSU is an early 3-point favorite and the line moves to -5 later in the week. Well now you can take Arizona +7 and hope that the game ends with LSU winning between five and seven points. If it’s five or seven, you get a win and a push, but if it’s by six, you win both of your bets. Any other result only creates a loss of the vig.
What Stats are Most Relevant in Setting the Line?
For head-to-head matchups the best thing you can look at are the most recent head-to-head matchups at the same venue. The habits of the general public are constant over time, so ATS results in general have a pretty long shelf life, but don’t go too far back in time.
Remember to check out our Bodog review to find out why we recommend using them for your sports betting!
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Instant Check/eCheck Deposit Sportsbooks
- Credit Card Sportsbooks
- Best Sportsbook for Small Players
- Sports Betting: Setting Realistic Expectations
- Super Bowl XLIII Betting
One Response to “How Sportsbooks Set Betting Odds”
Got something to say?
i really enjoyed this article Jack , great read !
murdoch
Reply