2011 Illinois Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Illinois is entering the 2011 season with the hope they can reach back-to-back bowls for the first time in the Ron Zook era. Illinois rebounded last year after two straight disappointing seasons. They have had plenty of coaching changes, including adding new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
The Illini went 7-6 last season, including a bowl win over Baylor. Last season saw excellent performances out of rookie QB Nathan Scheelhaase and junior tailback Mikel Leshoure, along with a solid performance from the defense under the tutelage of new defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. Illinois could have finished 9-4 overall, having given up late leads to Michigan and Minnesota in Big Ten play.
The Fighting Illini loses several key players on both sides of the ball including Leshoure, WR Fayson, offensive linemen Ryan Palmer and Randall Hunt, as well as WR/QB Eddie McGee. On the defensive side of the ball they have lost two talented early entrants to the NFL Draft: Martez Wilson at MLB and DT Corey Luiget, plus lose seniors DE Clay Nurse, OLB Nate Bussey, CB Travon Bellamy and specialist punter Anthony Santella.
Offensively the Illini will try to plug in RB Jason Ford and try to build on last year’s late season success running the ball. They rushed for rushing totals of 519 yards versus Northwestern, 318 yards versus Fresno Stat, and finished with 291 yards against Baylor in the bowl game. Sheelhaase rushed for 868 yards on a 4.8 ypc average and scored 4 TDs. Meanwhile, Ford (injured during spring) has been fairly productive over his career, rushing for at least 480 yards in each of his three seasons for Illinois. He has competition at tailback from senior Troy Pollard and three underclassmen. This could be a running back-by committee situation.
The Illini have a lot of production to replace in the backfield as Leshoure rushed for 1697 yards on a 6.0 ypc average with 17 TDs and was also the third-leading receiver on the team with 17 catches.
Illinois needs to get more from Scheelhaase through the air. He attempted only 264 passes last season (58.7%) but managed a solid 17/8 TD/INT ratio. Leading receiver A.J. Jenkins returns and will look to build upon a solid junior campaign of 56/ 746/ 7TDs. He will be joined by Daris Millines, who missed the spring, and Ryan Lankford, who took advantage of his absence to challenge for a starting spot, along with TE Evan Wilson, who had 10 receptions and 2 TDs last season. Offensive coordinator Petrino’s offense can be difficult to prepare for as they have several wrinkles that are unusual for a spread team.
The o-line returns three starters including talented tackle Jeff Allen (34 career starts), who plays the weakside (away from the tight end) tackle. WG Hugh Thornton (6’5 310) returns alongside Allen and center Graham Pocic, who boasts solid experience and talent. This unit rushed for 5.2 yards per carry and allowed only 25 sacks. Not bad considering they were protecting a red-shirt freshman QB who was gun-shy at times last season. Given the talent at QB and TB this line should pave the way for one of the strongest rushing attacks in the Big Ten.
Defensively Zook and Koening have some building to do. They must replace four starters in the front 7 of their 3-4 attack, and a solid veteran in DB Travon Bellamy, who along with Wilson and Bussey led the team in tackles, combining for 265 tackles and 19 TFL.
Illinois feels they are deep at every defensive position except for d-line heading into this season and are planning to rotate as many as 6 linebackers and 7 defensive backs. The Illini were an opportunistic defense last season, forcing enough takeaways to end up +8 in turnovers. Illinois is also confident that they can provide a pass rush with new starters Whitney Mercilus and Michael Buchanon. Luiget and Clay Nurse did combine for 8 sacks last year, but the overall athleticism of the unit should improve. Linebacker Ian Thomas returns and will be trying to fill the shoes of the ultra-talented Martez Wilson. Thomas will be joined by new starters Jonathan Brown and Ashante Williams, who should be solid in pass coverage.
The strength of this defense will likely be on the back-end as the group returns Terry Hawthorne (only started in the bowl game), Supo Sanni from injury, Travon Wilson and Justin Green at corner, as well as Trulon Henry and Steve Hull, who is playing only his second season at defense, at safety. This unit returns 9 interceptions from last year and given their depth and expected pass rush they could improve that number in 2011.
Illinois will be looking to replace punter Anthony Santella, who had solid averages of 44.8 per punt and a net of 37.8. Freshman Justin DuVernois will likely take his place. PK Derek Dimke returns following a solid 24-29 on FGs last season, including hitting 8-11 from beyond 40 yards. Illinois needs to get more from their return game next season and has a good chance as they return all three of their primary return men.
Schedule Analysis: Gone is the opening season border war with Missouri in which Illinois went 0-4 over the last 4 seasons. Illinois opens the non-conference season with four-straight home games, building up to Pac-10 foe Arizona State in the third week, followed by Western Michigan. The home trend continues for Illinois as two of their first three Big Ten games are in Champaign, which includes the opener Northwestern, a visit to Indiana, and a home game versus Ohio State. Purdue and Penn State are then back-to-back road games leading up to their bye in week 10. Illinois then gets Michigan and Wisconsin at home before closing the season at Minnesota.
This schedule sets up very well for Illinois and they could be bowl eligible by October. The bye comes in time to set up a rematch of one of the most entertaining games in the Big Ten last season against Michigan (67-65 loss in triple overtime). With health, an early gel of the defense and this schedule Illinois could be a dark horse contender for the inaugural Leaders division championship.
Final Record Predictions: 8-4 Overall (4-4 Big Ten – 4th in Leaders Division)
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