2011 AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The North Carolina Tar Heels face the Missouri Tigers on Monday, December 26th in the 2011 AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl. Missouri (7-5) won their final three games of the season to become bowl eligible after a shaky start. Meanwhile, UNC (7-5) lost four of their last six to close out the year. The Tigers are 2-0 all-time against the Tar Heels. Kickoff is set for 5:00 EST Monday in Shreveport, Louisiana. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2.

Oddsmakers in Las Vegas have set a line of Missouri -4.5 over North Carolina with a total of 53 points.

Missouri

The Tigers are certainly a team that is better than their record. Missouri went 7-5 this season, but four of their five losses came by 10 points or less, including an overtime loss to Arizona State. Their bowl chances were looking pretty grim after a 42-39 loss to Baylor on November 5th with only three games to play. But the Tigers would finish strong, beating Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas all at home over the final three weeks.

Missouri will be making their seventh straight bowl appearance under head coach Gary Pinkel. He has turned this program around since coming over from Toledo in 2001. Pinkel is 4-4 all-time in bowl games, and Missouri owns a 12-16 bowl record overall. The Tigers lost to Iowa 27-24 last year in the Insight Bowl, which was one of the most entertaining games of the bowl season. Iowa scored on a 72-yard interception return for a touchdown with 5:32 remaining to give the Hawkeyes the win.

The Tigers come in ranked 12th in the country in total offense (472.5 yards/game), including 11th in rushing (236.3 yards/game). They are 59th in the land in total defense (382.3 yards/game). Quarterback James Franklin is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the land. He completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,740 yards with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while also finishing second on the team in rushing with 829 yards and 13 scores. Running back Henry Josey rushed for 1,168 yards (8.1/carry) and nine touchdowns before getting lost for the season with a knee injury in Week 11 against Texas. Kendial Lawrence has rushed for 157 yards and a score in two games since taking over for Josey.

North Carolina

The Tar Heels saw head coach Butch Davis get fired right before the season. Interim coach Everett Withers took over, exceeding expectations in the early going by leading his team to a 5-1 start. North Carolina would falter down the stretch, dropping four of their last six. This team played well at home all year, going 6-1 on home soil. But they just couldn’t get anything going on the road, posting a 1-4 record away from home.

The Tar Heels have recently signed Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora to become their next head man, though Withers will get the chance to coach this team one last time in the Independence Bowl. North Carolina is 13-15 all-time in bowl games, and they will be making their fourth straight trip to the postseason in 2011. They put an end to a three-game bowl losing streak last season with a controversial 30-27 victory in double overtime over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl.

UNC ranks 50th in the land in total offense (396.6 yards/game) and 39th in total defense (353.0 yards/game). Their strength on offense is a passing attack that averages 249.2 yards/game, and their strength on defense is stopping the run. The Tar Heels rank 14th in the country in run defense (106.2 yards/game). First-year quarterback Bryn Renner has quietly had a solid season, completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,769 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Giovani Bernard rushed for 1,222 yards and 13 scores on the year. Star receiver Dwight Jones finished with 79 receptions for 1,119 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Betting Trends

The Tar Heels are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss, but 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Projected Score: Missouri 29 – North Carolina 24

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