Indiana at Illinois
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
This Saturday the Illinois Fighting Illini will host the Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten matchup. The Fighting Illini come in off a 26-6 loss at Michigan State, while the Hoosiers squeaked out a 36-34 win over Arkansas State at home. The home team has dominated this series, winning 11 of the last 14, including last year when Indiana won 24-14 at home. The oddsmakers seem to think that trend will continue this week, as the current odds have the Fighting Illini favored by 14-points over the Hoosiers at home.
Indiana (4-2, 0-2 Big Ten): After the offense decided to stay home against Ohio State, the Hoosiers got back to work in non-conference action, as they piled on 495 yards of total offense against Arkansas State. Quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns, and it just seems like whenever this guy plays well the Hoosiers have a shot at winning. The only problem for Indiana is they have to have that kind of offensive production to win games, as their defense is not good at all. The Hoosiers have allowed 80 points in their first two conference games this season against Ohio State and Michigan.
While the oddsmakers aren’t really giving the Hoosiers much of a chance in this game, I actually think they could end up winning this game if the offense plays well enough. The defense is going to give up some points, that is a given, but if the offense can hang in there they should be able to at least keep it close and give themselves a chance to possibly win late.
Illinois (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten): After going into Penn State and handing the Nittany Lions one of their worst losses at home in school history, the Fighting Illini really came out flat against a good Michigan State team. Illinois had a 6-3 lead going into the second half, but those two first half field goals were all the points they could manage. It didn’t help matters that the offense turned the ball over four times, and the defense wasn’t able to stop Michigan State once in the second half after allowing them just a field goal in the first two quarters.
Illinois moved the ball well early, and could have taken a much bigger lead into halftime had they not turned the ball over. As long as the Fighting Illini don’t turn the ball over this week, they should have no trouble putting points on the board against an Indiana defense that allows nearly 29 points a game and just over 400 yards of total offense.
Looking at the Odds: I think Indiana is a great play in this game, as I think they are very underrated on the offensive side of the football, and should have no trouble keep this game within 14 points. Indiana is 27th in the nation averaging just over 34 points a game. Even if they score just 27 points, the Fighting Illini would have to score at least 42 to cover. Only Michigan has scored that many points against Indiana this season. My final score prediction is Illinois 34, Indiana 28.
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