2011 Iowa Football Predictions
Written by Patrick Webb
Iowa is coming off a disappointing season as they went 8-5 in 2010, losing five games in which they were tied or had the lead in the fourth quarter. A huge senior class departs, taking with them eleven starters, including six NFL draft choices. Iowa fought off-the field-issues at the end of the season, dismissing WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos from the team and suspending TB Adam Robinson for the bowl game (Robinson was eventually dismissed from the team altogether for an arrest the night before the bowl game), not to mention a highly publicized workout gone wrong that led to the hospitalization of thirteen players for kidney issues. Iowa was also missing defensive coordinator Norm Parker for most of the season as he was suffering from complications from diabetes.
The Hawkeyes have seemed to wilt under high expectations with Kirk Ferentz, while they seem to excel when under the radar and could be a darkhorse to take the initial Legends division crown. Iowa expects to have Norm Parker back at full strength this season and was able to get a lot of young players experience on the defense last season, but have a lot of talent to replace.
Iowa loses QB Ricky Stanzi, TBs Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton (transfers), FB Brett Morse, TE Allen Reisner, WRs DJK, Colin Sandeman and Paul Chaney, and offensive linemen Julian Vandervelde and Josh Koeppel. On the defensive side of the ball they lose DEs Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard, with DT Karl Klug, LBs Jeremiha Hunter, Jeff Tarpinian, and Troy Johnson, as well as the safety tandem of SS Tyler Sash and FS Brett Greenwood (Sash a three-year starter/ Greenwood a four-year starter).
The good news is that Iowa has a talent at each skill position. Offensive coordinator Ken O’Keefe returns for his 13th season and has a clear-cut succession plan in place to replace three-year starter Stanzi. James Vandenberg saw very little action last season, but was thrown into the fire as a red-shirt freshman after Stanzi was lost in the 10th game of the ’09 season. Vandenberg may actually have a better skill set than Stanzi, but his intangibles and touch are two unknowns heading into this season.
The Hawks return Marcus Coker, who rushed for 622 yards in only 7 games, including 219 yards in the bowl game versus Missouri. Coker has excellent size at 6’0 230 and showed flashes of brilliance last season including excellent performances versus Indiana, Ohio State and Missouri. Adam Robinson wasn’t flashy, but he was solid in all three phases: running, pass protection, and receiving. He rushed for 941 yards on a 4.6 ypc with 10 TDs and also caught 24 passes for an additional 290 yards.
Heading into last season Iowa was thought to have one of the deepest groups of tailbacks in the nation, but saw three defections from Robinson, Hampton and Brandon Wegher (left before last season). The depth behind Coker is unproven and could be an issue if he misses significant time. Red-shirt freshman De’Andre Johnson should be completely recovered from an ACL injury he suffered in high school, Jason White may get some time, especially early in the season, and Iowa recruited four tailbacks (Rodney Coe didn’t make it into school). Mika’il McCall is the freshman most likely to see the field this season. Iowa also lost three year starter Brett Morse at fullback, who was basically a sixth offensive lineman with some receiving skills. Brad Rogers should be more of a threat with the ball in his hands and should assume the FB role if he is cleared medically (heart issue), if not Iowa may use less two-back formations and trot out a deep TE unit.
Iowa is losing three receivers including the talented but troubled DJK (career receptions and yardage leader), who was having a very good season (745 yards, 10 TDs, 16.2 ypr), along with veterans Sandeman and Chaney. The Hawks do return leading receiver Marvin McNutt, who has excellent athleticism and speed for his size (6’4” 215 lbs) and is entering only his third season as a full-time receiver. Keenan Davis has excellent size and has flashed ability while buried in the depth chart. Iowa’s depth is completely unknown as they are relying on a group of first and second year players, along with some walk-ons who are looking separate themselves and win spots on the depth chart. Even after losing Allen Reisner, tight end should be a position of strength as Brad Herman emerged as an excellent blocker and has great speed and athletic ability for his 6’5” 255 lbs frame, plus more time will be carved out for 2010 super-recruit C.J. Fiedorowicz, who is an incredible athlete at 6’7” 265lbs. Iowa has depth behind these two with three freshmen as well.
The Iowa offense only goes as far as the offensive line and injuries at guard crippled the Hawks late last season. Both Nolan MacMillan and Adam Gettis were banged up for the final 4 Big Ten games and Iowa stumbled offensively scoring 19 points per game and rushing for just 81 and 91 yards against Ohio State and Minnesota, respectively. The Hawks scored 30+ points in six of their previous eight games and scored at least 24 points in the other two. The good news is that Iowa returns LT Riley Reiff, RT Markus Zusevics, and C James Ferentz along with Gettis and MacMillan. Iowa possesses solid depth at nearly every spot along the line and should team with Coker to have a devastating rushing attack.
The Hawkeye’s defense has a lot of talent to replace. Their biggest loss last season may have been Norm Parker, as Iowa struggled to make the tiny adjustments in-game that he is known for. Iowa brings back Broderick Binns (starter in ’09, played in a rotation ’10) and DT Mike Daniels, who was excellent last season. The Hawks also have veteran Lebron Daniel penciled in as Adrian Clayborn’s replacement, but he could be pushed by some youngsters, while Carl Davis (6’5” 310 lbs) has size that the Iowa line doesn’t traditionally possess. Iowa will likely use a rotation this season and as many as ten players have a shot at seeing significant playing time this season.
Iowa loses three veteran linebackers, but regain SLB Tyler Nielsen (from injury) and James Morris, who was thrown into the fire last season as an undersized true freshman. The Hawkeyes should also get playing time from Shane DiBona, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey, who are battling to fill the WLB void left by three-year starter Hunter. This unit should be faster and will likely also feature a rotation. Iowa’s linebackers must play better in pass coverage this season for this defense to be successful.
The Hawk’s secondary is also being retooled as they lose one of the best safety tandems in the history of the school. Micah Hyde is being tried out at FS to help ease the transition and CB Shaun Prater returns after considering the jump to the NFL last season. B.J. Lowery played a lot of snaps in 2010 and has the size and length to excel in Iowa’s scheme. He is battling veteran Greg Castillo for the vacant CB spot. Jordan Bernstine, Tanner Miller, and Colin Sleeper are looking to take over for Sash, with Miller likely winning the spot as he saw extensive playing time last season as a true freshman. Iowa’s secondary is going to have some growing pains this season, but they should have an athleticism upgrade if Hyde remains at safety and Lowery wins the CB job.
Iowa’s special teams had solid overall numbers on paper from last season, but were a bit of a disappointment on the field. The Hawks struggled to cover both punts and kicks and must replace an NFL caliber punter in Ryan Donahue. Punters Jonny Mullings and Eric Guthrie are vying to replace him, but were underwhelming in the spring. Kicker Mike Meyer returns after a solid freshman campaign, going 14-17 on field goals. His longest kick was 42 yards and the Hawks will need him to be more of a weapon this season. Iowa’s return unit loses multi-year players in DJK and Sandeman, and won’t be settled until later into this off season. The Hawkeyes have a couple of intriguing true freshman who could man these spots.
Schedule Analysis: Iowa has two BCS games in their non-conference schedule- a visit to rival Iowa State in week 2 and at home versus Pitt the following week. The Hawkeyes have dominated ISU over the last two seasons, and should be favored in the game, but many key players are gone for both squads. Todd Graham has taken over for Dave Wannestead at Pitt and has a bit of a rebuilding on his hands as the Panthers are dramatically changing schemes. The Hawkeyes close out their non-conference slate with a home game against Louisiana-Monroe followed by a bye before starting conference play. Iowa opens up at Penn State, a team they have had a lot of success against over the last several years, winning 9 of the last 11 meetings. The Hawks then face Northwestern at home, who they have lost 5 of 6 to, including three straight at Kinnick. Iowa gets a bit of a breather over the next two weeks with a home game at Indiana and a road trip to a rebuilding Minnesota team. The Hawkeyes’ last four games have the potential to be tricky as they have Michigan and Michigan State back-to-back at home followed by road trips to Purdue and Nebraska to close out the season. With some health at key positions, quality play from new QB James Vandenberg, and an improvement from the special teams, Iowa is poised to improve on last season’s 8-5 and could be a contender for the division crown.
Season Record Prediction: 9-3 Overall (5-3 Big Ten – 3rd in Legends Division)
- Hawkeye Nation – Miller has the Hawkeyes going 5-1 through the first half of the season and closing 3-3 down the stretch.
- Bettors World – No reason the Hawks can’t win 10 games this year.
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