Iowa at Minnesota Odds

Written by Steve Janus

This Saturday the No.24 Iowa Hawkeyes will look to end the 2010 regular season with a big win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Hawkeyes lost yet another close game, falling to Ohio State 20-17, and now have four losses by a combined 15 points this season. The Golden Gophers were not in action last week, but come into the game off a 38-34 win over Illinois for their first conference win of the season. The Hawkeyes have won eight of the last nine against the Golden Gophers, and haven’t allowed a single point in each of the last two seasons. The oddsmakers aren’t giving Minnesota much of a chance in this one, as the current college football odds have the Hawkeyes favored by 15.5-points over the Golden Gophers on the road.

Iowa (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten): It hasn’t exactly been the season that the Hawkeyes were hoping for, but this is still a very good football team and one that won’t give up despite not having much to play for in the final game of the season.

The Hawkeyes didn’t trail against Ohio State until there was 1:47 left in the fourth quarter, but once again were unable to put together a game winning drive to pull out the win. Ricky Stanzi finished 20 of 31 for 195 yards and a score. It was only the second time this season that Stanzi failed to throw for at least 200 yards. The Hawkeyes got a solid performance from freshman running back Marcus Coker, who had 70 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, but leading rusher, Adam Robinson, had just 27 yards on nine attempts.

The Hawkeyes offense has really struggled since pouring on 37 points against Michigan State a few weeks back, as they haven’t score more than 18 points in each of their past three games. Look for the Iowa offense to get back on track this week, as the Golden Gophers come in allowing 200.5 rushing yards and 207.5 passing yards a game this season.

Minnesota (2-9, 1-6 Big Ten): The 38 points the Golden Gophers scored against Illinois was the most they put on the board all season. Minnesota trailed 34-24 with just over eight minutes to play in the fourth quarter, but two touchdown runs by DeLeon Eskridge gave the Golden Gophers the big come from behind win.

Eskridge finished the game with just 49 yards on 14 carries, but had three touchdowns, tying his season total coming into the game. Quarterback Adam Weber really threw the ball well against Illinois, completing 20 of 36 attempts for 225 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. It was just the second time in the last eight games that Weber finished without throwing an interception.

Moving the ball against the Hawkeyes defense has really been a struggle for the Golden Gophers the past two years, but could get things turned around this season, especially if Weber has another solid game. Iowa is great against the run, allowing just 93 yards a game, but has struggled against the pass, giving up an average of 218 yards a game. It will be key for Minnesota to get off to a good start in this one, as they just don’t have the weapons on offense to play from way behind.

Looking at the Odds: Despite the fact that Iowa has lost two straight, and should have lost to Indiana in their last win, I think you have to give the 15.5-points and take the Hawkeyes in this one. Iowa is 14-4 ATS versus poor rushing defenses – allowing >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992, and 10-2 AT after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. My final score prediction is Iowa 38, Minnesota 17.

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