2011 Iowa State Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Iowa State Cyclones are headed in the right direction under head coach Paul Rhodes. He took ISU to a bowl game in his first season in 2009 when they finished 7-6. They had a chance at a bowl game last year, but would lose their last three to fall to 5-7 for the season. The Cyclones took Nebraska to overtime, lost at Colorado, and fell to Missouri at home over the final three weeks. Rhoads is a local guy who has won over the hearts of Cyclone fans in Ames, IA after Gene Chizik left this program in a mess before bolting for Auburn.

This does have the makings of a rebuilding season at Iowa State, though. The Cyclones bring back only 64.9% of their letterman and 12 starters, tied for the fewest in the Big 12. Rhoads has overcome expectations thus far, but he’ll have his hands full in 2011. Let’s take a peek at the outlook of their offense and defense below. I’ll also be giving my predictions on where ISU will finish in the final Big 12 standings come season’s end.

Offense:

Iowa State had the second-worst offense in the conference last season. They put up only 21.7 points and 317 total yards per game. The Cyclones return only five starters on offense while losing their starting quarterback and running back. If you thought it couldn’t get much worse on this side of the ball, it appears it can. QB Austen Arnaud wasn’t spectacular, but he will be tough to replace after throwing for 1,703 yards and 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions last season. He was also their second-leading rusher with 287 yards and two scores. Arnaud was the school’s #2 career passer and a 3-year starter. While the job was wide open in the spring, I expect JUCO transfer Steele Jantz to win the job. Jerome Tiller threw for 363 yards and a touchdown without an interception in limited action last year, but completed only 47.6% of his passes. Tiller, redshirt freshman Jared Barnett and sophomore James Capello are expected to be in the race through fall practice.

The Cyclones actually have a rich tradition at running back. Under former head coach Dan McCarney, ISU had a 1,000-yard rusher in each of his first seven years at the helm. They only had one from 2001-’08, but Alexander Robinson emerged on the scene in 2009 to rush for 1,195 yards despite missing 12 quarters of action. He was slowed by a foot injury last year, but still managed 995 yards and nine touchdowns. Robinson (3,309 career rushing yards) has graduated, paving the way for sophomore Shontrell Johnson. He rushed for 218 yards on only 35 carries as a true freshman, averaging 6.2/rush. Sophomore Jeff Woody (192 yards) is more of a bruiser and is a nice complement to Johnson.

ISU loses their top two receivers from a year ago, if parting ways with Arnaud and Robinson wasn’t enough. Their #3 and #4 receivers return in seniors Darius Darks (29 grabs, 355 yards, 1 TD) and Darius Reynolds (25, 283, 2). Junior Josh Lenz (14, 170, 2) fills in at the other wideout spot. Adding depth are junior Matt Van Dyke and sophomore Ben Dinkins. Junior Kurt Hammerschmidt (5, 36, 1) takes over at tight end, but will have to fend off junior Vince Ewald and sophomore Patrick Mulcahy for playing time.

The skill players should have plenty of room to operate behind an offensive line that is clearly the strength of this team. This unit was very good two years ago when they led a rushing attack that averaged 180 yards/game on the ground, but faltered to 143 yards/game in 2010. They do lose second-team All-Big 12 C Ben Lamaak along with 3-year starter Alex Alvarez at left guard. Three starters return, led by senior LT Kelechi Osmele. He earned second-team All-Big 12 honors in 2009 and came back to be an honorable mention in 2010. Look for him to be a first-teamer this season and to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. At 6-6, 354, he has the build that will suit him well at the next level. I expect improved numbers from the O-line n 2011.

Defense:

The Cyclones weren’t terrific defensively last year, but this unit did keep them in games. They allowed 28.8 points and 408 total yards per contest. Rhoads has put an emphasis on forcing turnovers since taking over, and players have executed well. They finished with a +4 turnover ratio in 2009 and were +6 in 2010, which allowed them to make up for a lot of yardage given up. ISU should be better defensively this season with seven starters back, their top two tacklers, and five of their top six overall.

Along the defensive line, ISU must be much stronger at the point of attack. They yielded 180 rushing yards/game and 4.4/carry last season. They bring two starters back in senior DE Jacob Lattimer (39 tackles, 6.5 for loss) and senior NG Stephen Ruempolhamer (33, 6). Five linemen return with starting experience, along with JUCO transfer Rony Nelson (16.5 sacks in ‘09, redshirted in ‘10). Nelson figures to start right away at DE, and his addition should have this unit producing better numbers in 2011.

ISU had to replace five senior linebackers last season, and as a result this unit suffered. They lost starting MLB Matt Tau’fo’ou for the season in Week 2, making matters even more difficult. But sophomores Jake Knott and AJ Klein emerged on the scene and went on to have monster seasons while playing almost every snap. Knott led the team in tackles (130) while Klein finished second (111). These two will start at WLB and SLB, respectively, while senior Tau’fo’ou returns to his MLB spot. The Cyclones have five of their top six linebackers returning, meaning the numbers against the run should be much-improved.

The Cyclones were mediocre against the pass last year, yielding 222 yards and 64% completions. They lose SS David Sims (#3 tackler) and FS Michael O’Connell (#6 tackler), but return three upperclassmen in the secondary. Senior CB Leonard Johnson (7 pass break-ups, 1 INT) is their best cover corner, while junior CB Jeremy Reeves (6 pbu, 2 INT) is solid as well. Senior SS Ter’Ran Benton (58 tackles, 4 for loss) has plenty of experience. The only new blood they have to break in is sophomore FS Jacques Washington. Along with the D-line and linebacking corps, the secondary is primed to take a step forward as well.

Big 12 Prediction: 9th Place – Iowa State has had to rely on their defense quite a bit over the past few years, and that seems to be the case again in 2011. Their stop unit has the makings of one of the best in the Big 12, but unfortunately they are going to have to be on the field a lot. That’s because they lose their starting QB, starting RB, and top two receivers on offense. It’s going to take some time for the offense to gel, and with so many question marks I just can’t see the Cyclones pulling off too many upsets this season. They have five Big 12 road games, and three of their four home games come against Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma State. This schedule will make it nearly impossible for ISU to reach a bowl game.

Big 12 Football Predictions by Team
Iowa State Football Predictions	Kansas Football Predictions
Kansas State Football Predictions	Missouri Football Predictions
Baylor Football Predictions	Oklahoma Football Predictions
Oklahoma State Football Predictions	Texas Football Predictions
Texas A&M Football Predictions	Texas Tech Football Predictions

College Football Predictions
ACC Football Predictions	Big 12 Football Predictions
Conference USA Football Predictions	Independents Football Predictions
PAC 12 Football Predictions	SEC Football Predictions
Big East Football Predictions	Big Ten Football Predictions
MAC Football Predictions	Mountain West Football Predictions
Sun Belt Football Predictions	WAC Football Predictions

More Resources

Bettors World – Looking like a 4 or 5 win season for the Cyclones.

Comments

One Response to “2011 Iowa State Football Predictions”

Brea ISU on November 22nd, 2011 8:32 PM

Just wondering? Have you been keeping up with Iowa State? We have been doing a great job with all things set aside!! Big upset last weekend with Oklahoma State. With all things considered I believe you may owe us an apology.

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