Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/12
Written February 12, 2009 by Jack Jones
Another great night for us last night as we hit our BEST BET on the Cavs, go 2-1 on the premium side, and also hit both of our free picks. I liked Cleveland even before I knew for sure Nash wouldn’t be in the lineup, and I’m glad that the line shooting up near game time with him being out didn’t come back to haunt anyone.
Let’s see if we can’t keep this money train rolling on the tracks Thursday night. Remember, we are 14-1 on our last 15 with basketball BEST BETS and the last several haven’t even been close. I’m hoping I have another one picked out for you that wins in an easy fashion as our 20* No Doubt Rout will be in college basketball tonight. I also have a total in the NBA on the Celtics/Mavs matchup that you can watch on TNT, and a 15* CBB winner as well. Grab my package now at the Jack Jones home page or take a look at some of the NCAA basketball picks & NBA picks being released by our other top handicappers.
Free Premium Picks: Comment on my free picks article for today over at Betfirms.com. Tell me why you agree or disagree with today’s free picks and get today’s top play for free! ***Note: if I receive your reply after 5pm EST on weekdays and 2pm EST on weekends, you will get the following day’s pick. I send the free premium pick out in one batch late in the day, so if you post after they’ve been sent you’ll get tomorrow’s play.
Free Picks for Thursday
Remember that these are the weakest plays I’ve picked out, and will not be playing them personally. The best bets on the board will always be available only to premium subscribers. Where do I find these lines? Check out our NBA odds and college basketball lines pages to see which sportsbook has the best number!
Louisville -3 over Notre Dame at Bookmaker
I know a lot of you were wanting opinions on some of the bigger games, but I don’t really like forcing anything. I just wanted to put that caveat out there so you know that Louisville is actually a pretty solid choice tonight in my opinion, even though it’s not strong enough to make the premium side.
The Cardinals are 9-1 in Big East play, with their sole loss coming against Connecticut and by now you should know the Irish and the Huskies are on two completely different levels this season. Notre Dame has lost seven in a row and got killed by UCLA last Saturday (an easy free pick winner by the way.) This Irish team can score, but I think they are going to have some problems against a Cardinal squad that has held opponents to just 60 ppg. Louisville is more athletic and since they are 5-0 on the road this year, I don’t have a problem laying the small number tonight.
Free Pick Records:
CBB: 35-22
NBA: 13-15
NHL: 2-0 (+265)
CFB: 3-1
NFL: 4-1
I also post my free picks on Twitter so if you follow me there it may be easier to get the picks if you are away from your computer.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/6
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/12
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/7
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/15
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/11
62 Responses to “Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/12”
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The home court for notre dame means nothing anymore, cardinals are a good pick. If you keep hitting everything like you are I might ask you to be my valentine! MO MONEY!!!
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Unless your name is Michelle, not Michael, I might have to pass on that offer, haha
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Solid pick tonight on Louisville. I was actually thinking about taking them myself.
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Louisville actually was my top pick tonight, so great minds do think alike. Thanks Jack for the much needed advice, keep tearing it up!!!!
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Keith – if only my wife knew the “great mind” I had. Maybe she would quit nagging me all the time =)
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I actually already went with Louisville before looking at this. Good to see you agree with me! I feel much better about my pick now.
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Awesome!!! Congrats on last night hits…is great too see u on Louvi as well.
Let’s get paid!!
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Louisville defeated St. John’s 60-47 as an 11-point underdog on Sunday.
Jerry Smith netted a game-high 21 points for Louisville and Earl Clark added 12 points and eight rebounds in the win.
Tory Jackson led Notre Dame with 17 points off the bench in a 89-63 loss to UCLA on Saturday afternoon.
The Irish did not cover the 11.5-point spread
I go with louisville.
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Good job with picks last night Jack. Took St. Louis but doubted you on the Raptors and missed out on some easy money.
Like the pick for tonight with Louisville. Noter Dame fooled a lot of people early in the season looking like they were supposed to be in top 25. Now they are settling into place and look like the team that they are and will be on the bubble for the NCAA tournamtent.
Stay hot so we all continue to make money!!!
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
I think the Irish are on the outside of the bubble looking in.
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This was also one of my definite picks tonight (once bodog posted the line of course). The only worry is that ND has to draw the line somewhere and stop the bleeding, but against Louisville? No chance.
The irish have used up all their luck on the football field, and it seems the hardcourt isn’t far behind.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
You are right they have to stop the bleeding somewhere, but for some reason I see the books keep over-valuing them each time they take the floor. Until they over-adjust I’ll keep fading them!
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I have no idea why they have put up this sort of number on Louisville. My methods suggest Louisville (-8) is closer to the mark and therefore I consider this to be an excellent bet. I would certainly consider a number like (-5.5) to still be worth taking at 10/11, especially when considering the possibility of late fouls.
Moreover, for those who have access to Paddy Power, a very reputable Irish bookmaker, Louisville (-2.5) is available.
A small additional point is that (-2.5) or (-3) has a much better chance of getting lucky in overtime than a bigger number, should it go to OT.
I would expect to see, having regard to this game’s number, that the National Rankings over-rate Louisville at 7th but, in fact, the reputable* KenPom Pythag ratings have Louisville at 7th as well.
[*reputable excepting that they over-rate West Virginia!]
On another matter, I was very impressed with some aspects of the Michigan State Spartans play the other night – what chance they for the National Championship?
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Great writeup as always Adrian. I couldn’t believe this number when I saw it either. A possible trap game? Yes, but I’ll bite.
Michigan State has a couple of tough road games left against Purdue and Illinois, but they haven’t lost away from home this year (NC doesn’t really count) and are coming off a beat down of Michigan.
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Amazing!! This was my lock before this came out. Im gonna throw some above average dough on this one. Thanks for the input
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:50 pm
I’d still be careful Carlos, like I said I don’t like this one quite as much as the three premium picks I have for tonight, but good luck!
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well done.
hope your streak continues. i was wrong on toronto last night.
i like louisville. it is kinda like the oklahoma no brainer last night.
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I agree, Louisville is a no-brainer tonight. I was eye-balling that one myself and knowing that you agree clinches it for me. Thanks!
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I’m not as strong on Louisville tonight as everyone else on this site. ND will get someone eventually, and I think tonight at home they have a great chance.
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how can anyone back notre dame with the losing streak there on, i agree louisville with win and cover tonite go j.j.
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Well after hitting the raptors pick last night dead on how Can you ever be wrong. Like the way this one looks as well.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
I’m wrong plenty Bob, but the good news is that it happens fewer times than I’m right.
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Jack you have everybody using the “no brainer” now, but to their credit that best describes tonights pick.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Haha, I thought that was my trademark? Tonight appears to be a no-brainer in the eyes of a lot of people, but I’m not quite so sure it’s as strong of a play as most people think it is.
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Noter dame could be on one of the biggest suprise teams of this year. I including with most of the country thought they would compete for big east title but instead the are competeing for last in the big east. They have been strugiling for this whole year so why would it stop now. I see the cards easily winning this game but noter dame making a little run at the end but not enough. Lville 79 ND 71
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Aaron – I personally thought this team was going to compete for the Big East title as well, but how fast the mighty can fall. Nice prediction on the game, but I would prefer a little less scoring since the Cards are better defensively.
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Cards will kill the Irish I agree
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I like this tonight and good to see that Jack is BACK after 1 night with a bump you are rolling again. Good Luck and keep the streak going.
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John Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
JJ I have been informed from another source that this is a trap game tonight. ND has played so bad and the public is getting L’ville at such a small number that they are baiting you to take L’ville but ND wins this game outright. ND started this bad streak with L’ville and tonight will end it with L’ville. I SURE HOPE NOT. Lets prove them to be the joke tonight and continue the winning streak. Good Luck and STAY HOT.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
John – first thing I thought when I saw this line was “trap”, but after looking at it up and down I couldn’t see the fault in it. I think the odds makers put out the low number with the hopes the public was still big on an Irish team that didn’t lose at home the last two years in conference play. This isn’t the same team though. Now with that being said, it isn’t a strong enough play for me to put it on the premium side.
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I think Louisville with its form should cover the spread easily tonight. Go Louisville
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Louisville should easily blow out the irish tonight. no doubt rout.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Alex – I’d love for this game to be a rout as well, but wanted to make sure you know you’ll be getting the No Doubt Rout in the mail and this isn’t it.
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Alex Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
haha, hope so. Keep it up Jack
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Alex Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Make it happen tonight, waiting on that rout!!!
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Jack is back with another lock tonight, the cards at -3 is a winner winner chicken dinner pick, notre dame is off, way off, their defense is horrid and their scoring is off, the whole home court thing is done for now and louisville is playing some good ball this season,
solid pick and good luck Jack,
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Louisville should easily blow out the irish tonight. no doubt rout. Keep the run going jack!
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Notre Dame basketball is just like football. Lots of preseason hype, but a mediocre at best season. Irish are lucky to make the NIT
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hey man ! nice play last night ! caves rullzzz
i agree with Louisville pick !
good luck
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Jack, I actually had ND picked to pull off the upset. Just thought they were due to get hot. Your right about that Louisville defense. I’m sticking with you. You’re as hot with those picks as the pretty blonde holding the Louisville flag on BetFirms web page!
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
With such a high demand I’ve been looking for as many pretty girls as possible to post with the picks. Hopefully the Cards play as great as this fan looks tonight!
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Jack have got to be honest, doubted you last night once again you came through, looks like another good choice tonight as ND has been playing terrible. Thanks and keep up the good picks!! -nice photo btw-
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I agree Louisville should have little trouble beating an overrated Notre Dame squad. Good call…
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I think it is an excellent Pick! Even if I did not like it that much how could I go against you! Your on fire! Louisville should hammer Notre Dame with their athleticism and their loss to UCONN is understandable. It would be hard to find a team to stack up against UCONN and how they are playing.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Exactly what I was thinking. Thanks for the compliments too.
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Let’s see you go for that 10 game winning streak again
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yea thats a good call, I can’t believe the spread is only 3
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i agree that the cardinals are better, and the point spread is small. I think it should be higher.
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mark Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
I’m replying to my own comment because I was in a hurry. I’ve now looked at some stats, though, and I see that Notre Dame is 9-2 at home. Also, if they lose tonight, it will be their longest losing streak in 43 years. So they’re at home with some motivation. This is a revenge game and one with historical implications. They will likely be trying really hard tonight. If the Cardinals, for any reason, don’t want this game as much as the Irish do, then the pick would be a dangerous one. Also, if Louisville wins, it could be closer than three. I lean a little toward Louisville, but cannot underestimate a possibly very highly motivated Irish team at home. I recommend a conservative bet for anyone taking the Cardinals, and maybe it should be bought down to one point.
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Great comment Mark. You’ve made some valid points and pointed out a few reasons why this is only a free pick. However, Louisville will be motivated for this one. At 9-1 in the Big East they need to keep pace with the Huskies, plus Pitt and Marquette are breathing down their necks. If they take the night off against ND, they aren’t as good of a team as I think they are.
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Good seeing that you think Louisville will win this too, i just bet on it earlier also. Hope you keep your streak up!!
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I’m Australian, what would I know about college Basketball? But that’s why I go with Jack!
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Jack Jones Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Haha, that was worth a laugh. What sport do Australians dominate?
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lockers44 Reply:
February 12th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Australian rules football (awesome game, you should check it out the season starts soon)
Cricket
Rugby
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Adrian Armstrong Reply:
February 13th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
If Australia still dominate cricket, I’m a dutchman!
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I agree with Louisville (already made a bet on them), now I feel a lot better about it!! Keep it going!!
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Solid pick. Notre Dame lives and dies with the ‘3′, and tonight will be another die…
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hey man ! nice play last night ! caves rullzzz
i agree with Louisville pick !
good luck
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I love this pick tonight, last few times I watched Louisville I was impressed. And on the other hand, last few times I watched ND they played awfully bad. Keep up the good work Jack!
P.S. I like the picture too!
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50+ comments tonight guys so thanks a lot! Thanks for all of the praises and I hope that we can keep going strong and make a lot of money!
Plays are coming here in a few.
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If anyone is looking for today’s post, I’m passing on the card. Nothing I like and I won’t force the action. Be back tomorrow with some more winners guys!
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Tonight I like two road dogs:
Princeton (+2) to win at Yale (29/25 M/L, Coral)
Villanova (+4.5) to win at West Virginia (181/100 M/L, Coral)
Princeton should be favourites in my opinion – they are 4-0 in conference play versus Yale’s 3-3. Moreover they are 84 places higher in Kenpom’s Pythag ratings.
Whether or not this is good enough for a bet or not at 10/11 there is surely little doubt that Princeton (+2) is the better proposition. 116/100 is available straight-up for those with access to Coral – this is well worth considering, and preferable to the spread proposition.
As for Villanova at West Virginia, a lot depends on your view of the quality of the Kenpom Pythag ratings. With a conference record of 5-6, versus Villanova’s 8-3. there is little justification for West Virginia going off 4.5 point favourites unless one is a fan of the ratings mentioned which rank them at 7th, versus Villanova’s 12th.
I am generally loathe to go against Pythag, and thusly the ratings are a good excuse to steer clear, unless you believe as I do that this happens to be about the worst Kenpom rating out there, with West Virginia’s true ranking struggling to be Top 20, in accordance with their ‘official’ non-Top 25 status.
Thusly, I think this game is pretty even, therefore I recommend Villanova (+4.5), and/or the straight-up at 181/100.
Good luck
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