Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/14
Written February 14, 2009 by Jack Jones
We took a pass last night with nothing on the board worth a look in my opinion and weren’t going to press after the 1-2 night on Thursday.
Time to get back on track with Saturday’s action. I liked both of these free picks a little more than usual today, so I’m playing them myself. They were both early games though so I figured I’d just send them out in the newsletter instead of finding some plays that just missed the board. We are still 14-2 with our last 16 basketball BEST BETS and for Saturday we have a 25* No Doubt Blowout going late. Our Bailout Blowout also goes late tonight, along with a mid-afternoon winner. Let’s go 3-0 today and build up those bankrolls. Grab my package now at the Jack Jones home page or take a look at some of the NCAA basketball picks & NBA picks being released by our other top handicappers.
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Free Picks for Saturday
Remember that these are the weakest plays I’ve picked out, and will not be playing them personally. The best bets on the board will always be available only to premium subscribers. Where do I find these lines? Check out our NBA odds and college basketball lines pages to see which sportsbook has the best number!
Kentucky -4 over Arkansas at Sportsbook.com
I’ll take the Kentucky Wildcats today to pick up a road win in Fayetteville against the Razorbacks. The Wildcats are coming off a hard fought win over Florida on Tuesday to put the skids on a three game losing streak. This team is still fighting for an NCAA tournament berth at 17-7 overall and 6-3 in the SEC, while Arkansas is just 1-8 in conference play, including four straight losses. Kentucky has the SEC Player of the Year in Jodie Meeks, who is putting up 25 ppg and hitting 43.3% of his shots from behind the arc. Arkansas on the other hand had Courtney Fortson putting up 14.6 points and 142 assists, but was recently suspended by the Hogs. This would be a bigger play if I knew that Patrick Patterson was going to play, but he’s questionable with an ankle injury.
Minnesota +3 over Penn State at Sports Interaction
The Gophers beat Penn State by 20 points back in the middle of January and they are coming off an 8 point win against Indiana. The Nittany Lions on the other hand have lost three straight games, not scoring more than 51 points in any of those games. I know this is a revenge situation and that Penn State has been dominant at home, but you can’t just flip the switch and say today’s the day you are going to play for real. This offense is struggling, and things aren’t going to get any easier against a Gopher team that is holding opponents to just 62 ppg on 39.7% shooting.
Free Pick Records:
CBB: 35-23
NBA: 13-15
NHL: 2-0 (+265)
CFB: 3-1
NFL: 4-1
I also post my free picks on Twitter so if you follow me there it may be easier to get the picks if you are away from your computer.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/6
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 12/27
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/14
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/15
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/5
45 Responses to “Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/14”
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I really like the Kentucky pick they need this win against an Arkansas team they should beat by more than 4. I a ma little hesitant with the Gophers as the travel to Happy Valley today. They should be able to cover with the points and in reality should win; however, I am just not that confident. Penn State should be ready to play today.
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I agree with your free picks. My only concern is the fact that each of your free picks (Kentucky and Minnesota) is playing on the road. Road teams can be somewhat unpredictable.
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You had me flying solo last night Jack but I took a winner with W Virginia.
I’ll also be taking both of your free picks today, thank you.
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Hilarious picture. But one of my smaller plays today was going with Penn State -2.5. Big Ten teams play much different on the road, and the only 2 Big Ten home games Penn State has lost at home were to Wisconsin and Mich State, not a bad resume.
Kentucky/Arizona is a no-pick for me with the injuries/suspensions.
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bill Reply:
February 14th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Kentucky/Arkansas – haha
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i like both picks today even if both teams are on the road kentucky decent road team and penn st. there in such a funk at this point, i’ll gladly take the points.
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I LOVE the Kentucky -4 pick.. I really think that win over Florida sparked them, and lets be honest, Arkansas is realizing they have nothing to play for anymore. I think Kentucky, along with my other ‘Cats of Arizona, are a team on the rise, and definitely a tough out in the tournament being a 9-11 seed.
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I like both picks but both teams are on the road so im not sure
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JJ I agree with both,I think Ark has realized that they arent what they thoght after the big games early anf now look like they have pretty much quit and Penn St. is in the middle of a down funk time and cant seem to do what it takes to get over it. Good Luck and lets stay HOT
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I’m taking Kentucky, Minnesota, and Ga. Tech parlay and then going to the bank to make my deposit. Thanks, Jack
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Kentucky -4 over Arkansas at Sportsbook.com
Minnesota +3 over Penn State at Sports Interaction
Two solid picks that Jack surely has the right side of. However, we usually don’t get even money so are they worth betting at 10/11?
In my opinion one is and one is not. I suggest Kentucky are 4.5 point favourites according to a meta-power analysis so cannot quite be bet laying odds at (-4). Further the spread is not in the crucial 5-to-7 zone – the ‘NCAAB numbers’.
Conversely, though, Minnesota (+3) can be construed as value. I make this game close to even, and the margin would be suffcient to justify a small wager if one was so inclined.
I like to look for 4.5 points margin of my estimate versus price to make a good bet (excepting around the ‘NCAAB numbers’) so this is by no means a must bet, but there are worse places to put your money.
However, having regard to the fact that it is quite unlikely that Minnesota will lose by precisely 1 or 2, and that (+3) might be quite difficult to get now (most UK bookmakers quote (+2.5) only) I would recommend taking the odds instead and backing Minnesota straight-up – 5/4 is available at Bet365 – and this is what I will do to a small stake.
My best bet today is California (-6) over Stanford. Cal are a clearly better team; my meta-power analysis agrees on that in each part, by 3.5-to-6 points. Add home court advantage plus the power of the ‘NCAAB number’ and I think this is a worthwhile wager.
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donw realy know alot about ncaa basketball , but i”ll love to get the pick and play it with you .
good luck !
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I agree with the Kentucky pick, Arkansas has been in a huge slide in SEC play and I don’t see that slide ending today against an improved Kentucky team. In the Minnesota/PennState game, I could see this game going either way. Yes there is a revenge factor for Penn St and they are playing at home, but Penn St has also lost three in a row. Then with Minnesota they have lost 4 of 7. So it could go either way.
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Big ten teams on the road are not good. I will go with ya anyway lol. I bet the Wildcats anyway before this pick.
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I agree on the wildcat pick after their impressuve over the gators. On other hand I like penn st in a revenge game at home. I expect them to take control of this game early.
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Kentucky looks like a great pick, the Minnesota game I think is a toss up
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Good picks i like mini money moneyline
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Kentucky is a great play!!! Let’s get paid today!!
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I like this pick. Arkansas just flat stinks and Kentucky is due. Good rebound day!
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Kentucky looks like easy win
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i like boyh of these teams the only concern I have is that ther both away, mght just stick to minnasota
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I agree with both of the picks with my only concern being that both are road teams.
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Lets get another streak going Jack!!!
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Bad day yesterday, hopefully the AVs will come through today.
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I’m thinking of taking all the Big Ten home teams because it seems that outside of Michigan State, no one plays well on the road. Even if the road teams win it’s usually by a low number. I especially like Indiana to cover the double digit number.
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I have to disagree I am taking the wings on the puck today I can’t see them losing again @ home the avs. There is a reason why they are in last place. B-ball today I like the hossiers to cover double digits theuy have been playing much as of late take the pts.
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Don’t know much about hockey to comment on it.
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There is too much value at +300, you have to go with the Avs or not play the game at all. The Wings are -350, that is way to steep a price to pay for a team that has already lost twice to the Avs. Detroit is definately the better team, but Colorado always plays the Wings tough.
In hoops action I’m looking at Louisville(-21) over DePaul. Louisville is coming off that whooping they took at the hands of Notre Dame, so they are going to be coming out strong and they are also at home. DePaul is just plain bad. They have lost 12 in a row and are 1-11 ATS in those 12 games. They are only 3-15 ATS this season.
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I have to agree with Avalanche because that team is not so badly like it’s playing recently
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Dont know too much about hockey but if you say it i believe it.
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I have to agree with James Allen. You have to take Jack’s advice on the Avs or make this a no play.
I think a good play would be Northwestern -3.5 against a bad Michigan road team. Illinois -10 against a horrible Indiana team.
And a small play on over total points in a showcase of dunks and alley-oops in a no defense all star game.
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Hey! Great inight in hockey. I believe Colorado+300 is great choice. Hockey provides many value money line plays on underdogs, you just have to value each situation?
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I have to say the one game I truly like in hoops today is Notre Dame-10 to keep the momentum from their Louisville demolition. They know they must continue to impress and Harangody is top 5 player whom South florida has no one to match him, also South Florida is horrendous on the road.
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Hey there, don’t know nothing about hockey, but i will still take it, juts because it is +300! not much to loose! Thanks!
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Hi… i’ve bet on detroit -1.5 cause i just don’t think colorado whit all their injuries will come close to win this game… I think it will be a piece of cake to win this at home for Detroit
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Dont really know much about hockey either so i will go in the direction of cbb. The Miami Hurricanes are hosting the Tarheels and are 9 point home dogs. I feel they are overvaluing the #3 team in the nation. PLay Miami +
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after last night . i think i”ll get the day off , just wanted to say thank you for BYU.
( you can still send me the primium
thanx
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dont know muchabout hockey but if you think it can win I am all for it with value it has, also what do you think about Akron today in baskets? I like them but is 10-11 too many. Good Luck and stay Hot.
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not a big hockey fan so its college basketball-love the way n.c. are playing now and i don’t think this is a letdown spot after playing duke. nice call on byu
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I know less about hockey than I do about Basketball, but your picks were beautiful yesterday. Go the Avalanche!
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I like NHL – I used to occasion the Shark Tank when I worked in Santa Clara – but I suspect that the nature of the game makes it quite difficult to beat a good power rating plus bookie’s margin combination; i.e. there should probably be less disagreement amongst the reasonable public than with respect to college hoops, and therefore less to shoot at for the competent punter.
Having regard to the NCAAB, and feeling great since Cal (-6) scraped home last night, my best bet today is Arizona State (-7) over USC. My personal power rating based on Kenpom’s Pythag is about 12 here and this combined with the ‘NCAAB number’ of 7 makes it an easy play.
My one concern is conference record; 8-4 doesn’t look 12 points better than 6-5 so some degree of caution is advised (last night with Cal this box was ticked better and better opportunities will be available) but with home advantage I’m sure Arizona State (-7) is the better side here.
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John Reply:
February 15th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
I like Ariz.St. also think they are the better team but worried maybe a little flat today and USC looking for a win maybe keeping it closer than it needs to be. I am with you and hoping for the best. Good Luck.
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While I don’t know much about hockey, one thing I do know is that the Avs always play the Wings tough…
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Like your free pick today but I think it is stronger than advertised.
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I’m going with the Av’s today also, along with ASU -7 in a light parlay. Thanks for yesterday’s pick Jack – BYU was clearly dominant.
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