Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/18
Written February 18, 2009 by Jack Jones
Last night was another winning day for both our premium clients and free pick subscribers. We nailed both Purdue and BYU on the free side, while cashing in our BEST BET on Bradley and our 15* on the Bucks in the NBA.
Now on to Wednesday, where I have a BEST BET going in the NBA with my 20* Total Annihilator. I know some of you don’t like totals, but one of these really sticks out to me as showing solid value. In college hoops, I have a pair of 15* winners on the card. Grab my package now at the Jack Jones home page or take a look at some of the NCAA basketball picks & NBA picks being released by our other top handicappers.
Free Premium Picks: Comment on my free picks article for today over at Betfirms.com. Tell me why you agree or disagree with today’s free picks and get today’s 15* Horizon League Hammer for free! I send the free premium pick out in one batch today around 6 EST, so if you post after they’ve been sent you’ll get tomorrow’s play. ALSO – If you want to get a free premium subscription, meaning you get ALL of the plays for FREE and get them as soon as they are released, become a top poster in the relaunched forum! Check the vbexperience link in the menu to see where you stand, top 5 forum members will get premium subscriptions so start posting, commenting, and viewing posts today!
Free Picks for Wednesday
Remember that these are the weakest plays I’ve picked out, and will not be playing them personally. The best bets on the board will always be available only to premium subscribers. Where do I find these lines? Check out our NBA odds and college basketball lines pages to see which sportsbook has the best number!
Florida State -2.5 over Miami at BetUS
I’ll take the Seminoles tonight who are 10-3 at home against a Hurricanes squad that has gone just 3-4 in true road games. Florida State had won three in a row before a tough loss to last weekend, but at 6-4 have a better ACC record than the 4-7 Hurricanes. I know the Canes played both Duke and North Carolina tough in their previous two games, but there is no denying this team is in a skid having lost five of their last six. I like home teams that play great defense and with the Seminoles giving up just 63.7 points per game on 38% shooting, they fit into this category tonight. This should be a great game, but I’ll take the Seminoles in a close one.
Oklahoma State -1 over Texas Tech at Bookmaker
This game is a little scary tonight as the Red Raiders might be just 2-8 in Big 12 play, but they are 11-3 on their home floor while Oky State is just 2-5 on the road. However, Tech has lost six of their last seven games and were demoralized by Oklahoma on Saturday. The Cowboys have a load of talent with four guys averaging over 14 points per game, a big reason why they are scoring 83 per contest. Texas Tech can score too, but their defense isn’t quite as good, allowing 78.6 points per game this year. To me, Oklahoma State has more talent than the Red Raider do, and with the Red Raiders struggling, the Cowboys are worth a play tonight.
Free Pick Records:
CBB: 38-24
NBA: 13-15
NHL: 3-0 (+565)
CFB: 3-1
NFL: 4-1
I also post my free picks on Twitter so if you follow me there it may be easier to get the picks if you are away from your computer.
If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/6
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 1/21
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/25
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/21
- Jack’s Free Sports Picks: December 29th
56 Responses to “Jack’s Free Sports Picks: 2/18”
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i like the OK state game too, but think miami has somethign to prove in a instate game.
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I think Miami has more talent and will win this one – agree with you on the other
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i like the florida pick ! thanx
grait pick last night ob the bucks!
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I am up in the air about the Miami/FLA ST game, however I like Fla St as the home team. I am not sure if I am with you on the Okl St. game. Okl St and can and score but their offense is too inconsistent for me. I might fade this game. Any though on N.C. vs N.C. St with N.C. St. get 19.5. Seems like a ton of points even against N.C.
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like okla st, not big on florida st. i think miami is a very good team… cant go against you right now on anything though!
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agree with you on both picks…already locked in OK state
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I agree with you on the Fla. st. game. Miami is horrible on the road. I like texas tech in the other game though.
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I think FSU-Miami could go either way. FSU is playing well with some quality wins lately. I like Ok State, I don’t think TTech has horses to play with them even at home. Tonight I like Butler, Tennessee and Dallas in NBA.
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Whoa!! With girls like that @ Florida St, how could you not root for them. I like FSU and Texas Tech
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two middle of the pack teams in the acc mia decent scoring team flo st. i don’t trust, good call on okla st. i like the offence. keep rolling j.j.
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I think FSu-Miami will be a tough call. Really like Okl over TT
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I like the OK state game lets keep the winning going Jack!
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FSU and Miami is tough because of the instate battle they have going on but i like the TT an OK state game
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I love the picks. I want to order a weekly package from you if we hit tonight lol. Let’s do this!
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I’m taking Florida! Nice pic Jack
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I think both picks are a little risky, but I think they are likely to work out.
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I love both the picks today, Miami is a good team but I definitely think FSU is more talented as a team, Miami goes as McClinton goes. OkSt-TTech is a tough one to call but I think OkSt is the right player there also.
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I agree with both of your choices for the free picks today! Oklahoma State’s offense will be too much for texas tech tonight…and Miami is just horendous on the road and im expecting florida state to take care of them by double digit pts tonight.
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Great start to the week Jack. Tonight I think the canes will go upstate and beat the seminoles. They will have no answer for mcclinton.
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I’m with most people today I think. Agree with OK St; but I think Miami could take FSU.
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I think Fla.St. is good choice because I expect Miami to be a little flat after Carolina game but I am not sure about the Ok.St. I lean that way but the line makes me think the other way, but if you say it I play it. Keep it up JJ and Good Luck, Stay Hot.
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How can u not pick fsu after seeing the rack on that babe. As far as the other I am going to run with tech they are a different team at home my pick for the night is the bulls in the nba.
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Hey! JJ If U dn’t Mind. Great! Today even BETTER!I’m SOOOO!!!! Sick!!! Of this A-ROD thing Ya! C WHT U CN do???
Love your PKS Just diggin In!!! What A KRAZZY way to THE!!!! Final 444.Mannnn!!! ALWAYS for NOW!!! Thanks RICK/MR WOODY
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WHY didn’t I listen to you and go with Purdue last night?? I overruled you and look where it got me… Also, HOW did New Orleans not cover last night against OKC? Rough night all around EXCEPT for your BYU and Milwaukee picks. Glad I at least listened on those.
Both free games tonight are almost toss ups so heck, let’s go with you.
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Well after looking at it longer I might just stay awy from both. Good luck everyone.
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I like the Fla. St. play, Miami c collins may not play and fla. is 6-3 conf. play where Miami is only 5-5
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both of the free picks are so tight today dont see any real value in beting either because there both about50/50 go either way.
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Disagree w TT gm
-TT is tough at hm 80 wins outta last 96
-4-1 ats when avenging a lost
*Cowboys are 0-7 ats after playing the cyclones
I’ll take TT +1
100% with u on the Florida St gm
GL
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McClinton is an absolute stud, but at what point if any will he “cool down”? I like the Fl St play at home as Jack and the boys let down a bit after beating wake, blowing the duke game and giving the heels a run for their money. They will relax too much tonight against the noles.
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Florida State looks good, McClinton can keep games close, but FSU will shut them down. Plus, it fits into my system for tonight
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I don’t know about OK State though, I think I’m going to take your word for it
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Miami is going to comeout and open a can oif woopass of florida state today. They know that if they loose a game their tournament chances are none to slim. Jack mcclicinton is to good and has to much talent. Also florida state is gonna have no answer for the beast dwayne collions. Miami 72 florida state 64 the score is going to be closer then the acully game. Bet the house on miami and the moneyline. Go canes
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i like the oklahoma game alot i feel confident in their play at home
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Rolling with FSU tonight…still thinking on OKST…
Let’s get paid!!
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I THINK THESE 2 TEAMS SHOULD WIN QUITE CONVINCLING, I THINK THE SPREAD IS BEING GENEROUS.
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I will definitely be playing Ok State as I like them to possibly when big. I agree with the FSU pick, but am not confident enough to play it myself. This game will come down to the last minute and could go either way, especially with Miami desperate to try and prove themselves.
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Jack I knew it would come to an end. I agreed with both picks last night. Tonight I like the FSUu Pick but love Texas Tech. We all know Oak St has a great offense but did you know the give up OVER 81 pts a game on the road.
Texas Tech can put points on the board also they avg over 82 points at home. Averging over 82 points plus getting more at home give me Texas Tech
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Jack your free picks are on fire. What a hockey pick a couple of days ago. I got down pretty bad after using one of these bobblehead touts over the phone and you are hlping to erase that bad memory. How about a little more help.
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Miami has played tough this year but I agree with you. FSU has had some brushes with great play. OK State should roll over the weaker Tech
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I do agree with the FSU play. Miami seems to be one of those teams that plays to the level of their competion. I believe they have more talent than FSU, but they will continue with their stagnant play. Miami has lost 4 in a row on the road. FSU is looking for revenge from their last meeting and also to prove they belong with the big boys after getting destroyed by Wake this past weekend. I am undecided on the OK St/TT game. TT is great at home and Ok St is bad on the road. That being said, OK St. is the much better team than TT. If Ok St. comes to play then they will win the game convincingly, but i’m unsure if they will really come to play.
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I like the Oklahoma St. pick, I was leaning that way. I put my picks on the forums for today.
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I agree that Florida state should beat miami but not sure if they will. Miami is a solid team and instate rivalries are a little hard to predict. But if you say it I believe it. Hard to pick against you…
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Jack, your free and comp. picks have dug me out of the hole for now. They say never kick a winning horse in the ass so it will be Florida State,Okla.State, and the comp. tonight. I can’t believe the run your on. Is this the best run you have had? My middle son hit 19 out of 21 last year on college football. You’re run and his are the best I’ve seen! Do you have the other half of the Florida State T-shirt? Good luck
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I am feeling the Florida State pick, but Texas Tech is real tough at home and Im not feeling real confident about that one. I feel like texas tech will play like they have something to prove. Love the pictures you put up with your free picks and keep up the good work man.
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I like both picks. But okie st. Stronger
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Not too sure about Florida st but I’m tired of missing out on money when I sit out on your picks. Already took ok st.
gret job with your picks last night.
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I’m taking you up on ok st… i just like the way that team plays. i also hope your total annahilator is on the suns tonight! After firing porter their high flying offense is back!!!
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I like the Florida St pick. I think they’re very solid as a team. In other hand, Miami isn’t a bad team, but can not compare to Florida St. For the Oklahoma St game, I’m still have some doubts about winning Texas Tech at their home court, that y I’m not confident with this game.
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Sorry, but Canes getter done tonight. They should be battle tested after playing NC, Duke and Wake consecutively.They have covered all 3 of those games too.
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The OK St. is easy… I don’t care if they are home. The FSU pick is harder… Miami has been on a roll lately. Im going with both though
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Jack’s picks:
Florida State (HOME) -2.5 over Miami at BetUS
This game is an enigma to me on the figures. Florida State have a much better ACC record (6-4 versus 4-7) but Miami (FL) are deceptively higher on Kenpom’s Pythag ratings (25 to 54).
I think the truth-of-the-line could be anywhere between an even game to Florida State by about 5 or 6. I would tend to favour the lower end of the range, though, and settle on Florida State by about 1.5 as the best notion.
Therefore I could not agree with Florida State as a bet, particularly now when, at least here in the UK the (-2.5) seems to have gone – all eight ‘oddschecker.com’ bookmakers quoting 3 or 3.5.
To bet Florida State here one must have a strong view of this particular home advantage.
Oklahoma State -1 over Texas Tech (HOME) at Bookmaker
This is a much clearer picture – it is unambiguous that Oklahoma State are the better team. What is to be determined is how much better and whether home advantage is of more, less or the same value as usual.
Normally I would consider Oklahoma State to be worth a 2.5-point edge for a typical road game between typical team types. However there is reason to believe that the small team they are likely to put out will have a greater road disadvantage than is typical, as the physical superiority of their opponent is likely to be accentuated at home.
Therefore I believe the number (Oklahoma State -1) to be about right.
I think both of Jack’s games might go either way.
As for the UK (that’s United Kingdom, not University of Kentucky
live game at or near midnight GMT today, they have chosen to bless us with Providence at Louisville.
With a number like (-13), I’m sure you realise that this sort of game is something of a toss-up without knowing how the teams will play it. Louisville could easily take it out beyond 20 points but leak it back to an easy 10-or-12 point win come the final buzzer. Or they could keep it turned on in that circumstance and win by a pile of points.
Further, if Providence are highly aggressive in their late fouling that could just about allow Louisville (-13) to cross the line if the game were closer.
My personal guess is that Louisville WILL be ‘professional’ in their maintenance of the margin and that Providence will NOT be hyper-aggressive in late fouling. However that is highly subjective!
My power ranking interpretations entitle Louisville to a 15.5-or-16 point superiority so I guess a small bet-the-TV-game play on Lousiville (-13) would not be such a terrible thing. Perhaps, if one has an in-play facility (particularly a 10/11 or better one) one might watch the first moments. Early points for big favourites have a less-than-proportionate effect on the in-play line so one might be able to satisfy oneself as to Louisville’s competence and intent before playing them without great penalty, but nicely avoid a losing bet if they did not start so well.
Indeed, if they did not start so well and the line dropped to something close to the ‘NCAAB numbers’ (around 5-to-7) then that concept would create an additional reason for playing Lousiville in-play.
Finally, my best bet of the day; indeed the only NCAAB game on the board worth playing, is to take UAB (-7.5) at Tulane.
UAB are a far better team (it might be said that Tulane are not even Top 200) and are motivated for March Madness qualification. Further the ‘NCAAB number’ factor just about applies.
This is not a great bet, but it is a good one. Other than an irrational voice in my head, I can’t find a reason not to make this play.
Good luck.
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I like Miami, Mclinton is red hot, however I do fear that if he cools down they have a limited number of role players who can fill the scoring void. I would put a play at -2.5 but not the spread is -3.5 and just think the game is going to be too tight. Thanks for the info and thanks for last night.
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Tough choices, but thanks for Milwaukee yesterday!
I like Phoenix to crush the Clippers again…
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I definetly like the Oklahoma St. pick and am playing a few units on it myself. But I am not to sure about the Miami game. They have looked good in their last two and came up short to Duke. They have something to prove tonight and I believe this one will be to close to call.
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I believe you’re wise to pick home teams that play good defense. I also think that’s what Purdue did last night. I guessed wrong on that game, and will agree with you this time on the Seminoles.
As for Oklahoma St., I’ll take what you say about their talent. However, I think that a demoralized team is sometimes the most dangerous, mainly if they’re good. Tech isn’t very good, though.
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Sorry I didn’t make it on here in time to give you guys some comments, but I was active in the forum most of the day, so if you want my opinion on your picks head on in and share tomorrow.
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thanks for the bucks last night. i never would have thought of that! looks like your ok state tip tonight is going well. thanks!
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