Utah Jazz v. New Orleans Hornets Odds
Written April 5, 2009 by Jordan Haimowitz
The Utah Jazz are on a three game losing streak and have slipped all the way down to the 7th seed in the Western Conference. They now are only one game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks. What is most disturbing of their recent troubles is how they lost these games. They lost by 21 to the Blazers, 10 to the Nuggets and an awful home loss to the T-Wolves 103-102. The Jazz are led by one of the NBA’s best Deron Williams. They will need him to play superb basketball tonight as they face the one point guard in the league that is better than him. A glare at the numbers show these two teams are very even. The Jazz average seven more points a game than the Hornets but give up six more. The field goal percentages are within two percentage points of each other while the Hornets are a better free throw shooting team at 81% to the Jazz 77%. The one category that the Jazz have a distinct edge in this game is bench production. Paul Millsap and Andre Kirilenko will overwhelm James Posey and whichever player you want to call out that is on the Hornets bench. This will be a big factor in today’s game. The problem with the Jazz has been that people are trying real hard to consider them a legit contender, they just make it so darn hard to allow it. They have a 32-7 home record which is third best in the league, they then follow that up with a baffling 14-23 record. The Jazz have won both games against the Hornets this year to date. Both games were at home and both were massacres, the first win was a 22 point victory and then they followed that up with a 14 point win. Deron Williams vs Chris Paul. In my mind CP3 has established himself as the leagues premier point guard. With that said, Utah has a far more impressive supporting cast. The reason why Utah has a real good chance of winning this game today is because of shut down defender, Ronnie Brewer. He will be the x-factor in shutting down David West of New Orleans. The line on this game has the Hornets listed as 2.5 point favorite over the Jazz.
The Hornets currently hold the 6th seed in the Western Conference. With that said, they remain only two games back in the division trailing the San Antonio Spurs who are playing at Cleveland today. When you talk about the New Orleans Hornets, your statement should start and end with the man they call “CP3″. Chris Paul, the magnificent point guard from Wake Forest has solidified his stardom in this league. Paul is averaging 23 points, 5 rebounds and 11 assists per game standing only 6′0 tall. He is fresh off a mind blowing 43 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists and 3 steals in a loss at Golden State. He is helped by David West who has made an all-star team and is a very talented player. West averages 21 points and 8 rebounds per game. He will be the x-factor today as Paul will have all he can handle facing off with Deron Williams. This is a gut check game for the Hornets. They have gotten blown out in both meetings versus the Jazz this year and will be facing them for a third time while the Jazz are in the midst of a three game losing streak. This one doesn’t set well for New Orleans tonight. The Jazz are a more talented squad and will most likely set the pace they like. Expect an up tempo game for the most part. You won’t find many people who are higher on CP3 then myself. I have followed his career since he was a freshman in college. However, I have learned if you want to be successful for the long haul in this business, you bet with your mind, not your heart. Jazz are the play and double it up with the OVER. Current line sits at Hornets -2.5 and O/U 193.
Haimo’s Hot Notes: The Jazz are 37-39 ATS this year while the Hornets are 32-41-2 ATS. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in their last ten games while the Hornets are 6-4 SU in their last ten. James Posey is doubtful for this game. Even if he does play he will be banged up and that will most likely nullify their best bench player. I have gotten several inquires from people asking me why I don’t advise taking teams SU when I like them as much as I do. Few for example: Missouri OVER Memphis in the Sweet Sixteen, Wisconsin OVER Florida State, Raptors OVER Knicks yesterday and Memphis OVER Dallas Mavs on Friday 4/3. That is because the risk is not worth the reward. When you can get 2.5 points, you never pass up the chance at an inside cover. Take the points and the OVER and cash in.
Betting Line: Hornets -2.5 & O/U 193
Jordan’s Picks: Jazz +2.5 & OVER 193
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