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Kansas City Chiefs Odds to Win 2011 AFC Championship

Sports Interaction currently has the Chiefs listed at +2000 to win the AFC Championship, the worst odds of any team out of the AFC. The Chiefs won the AFC West with a record of 10-6, which earned them the No.4 seed in the playoffs. Kansas City however is tied with the Colts for the worst record out of the AFC, and the Chiefs lost to the Colts 19-9 back in week 5.

To give you an idea of how little credit the Chiefs are getting in the playoffs, they are 3-point underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens at home in the first round, despite the fact that Kansas City’s only home loss all season came in the final week against the Raiders, when the Chiefs really didn’t have a whole lot to play for.

The big knock on the Chiefs is the fact that they played the weakest schedule of any team in the AFC playoffs. Kansas City’s biggest win of the season came in week 1 against the Chargers on Monday Night Football, but that would be the only game the Chiefs would win all season against a team that finished with a winning record. The Chiefs did play the Colts tough at Indianapolis early in the year, but were unable to make the big play when they needed to.

Still you can’t count the Chiefs out just yet. Kansas City led the NFL in rushing, averaging just over 164 yards a game. Jamaal Charles had one of the best years in NFL history, averaging 6.4 yards per carry, on his way to rushing for 1,467 yards and five touchdowns.  Kansas City also had one of the best wide receivers in the game in Dwayne Bowe, who finished with 72 catches for 1,162 yards and a league-leading 15 touchdowns.

Still the key to the Chiefs playoff success will rest in the arm of quarterback Matt Cassel, who did a pretty remarkable job considering he really only had Bowe and rookie tight end Tony Moeaki to throw to. Cassel completed nearly 61% of his attempts and finished with 27 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, good enough for a 93 quarterback rating, nearly three points higher than the year he helped the Patriots go 11-5 while filling in for Tom Brady.

Defensively the Chiefs played extremely well at home, outside of that final loss to the Raiders, as they allowed just 14.7 points per game at Arrowhead. The defense could be what cost the Chiefs, as they are extremely young all over the field, especially in the secondary. Kansas City has had some success stopping the run this season, and when they can control the other team’s ground game, they are a very difficult bunch to deal with.

Overall I just can’t see the Chiefs pulling off the improbable run to the Super Bowl. Even if the Chiefs are able to pull off the upset at home over the Ravens, its very unlikely that they will be able to go on the road and beat either the Patriots or Steelers.

Win or lose, just getting playoff experience for so many of their young players will only help them down the road, and I think this is a team that you will have to take very seriously in a couple years.