2011 Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
Written by Steve Janus
The Kansas City Chiefs pulled off one of the biggest turnarounds of any team in the NFL last year. After going just 4-12 in 2010 and totaling just 10 wins in the previous three seasons, the Chiefs surprised everyone by winning the AFC West with a 10-6 finish. Kansas City would go on to lose 7-30 to the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, but this team looks poised to remain a threat in the West for some time.
The Chiefs didn’t go after the top free agents this offseason, as they continue to try and build from the ground up. The Chief’s 2010 draft class was a big reason this team made such a significant improvement. The Chiefs got major contributions from rookie safety Eric Berry, tight end Tony Moeaki, running back Dexter McCluster, corner Javier Arenas, and safety Kendrick Lewis. Kansas City looks to have added another strong draft class with wide out Jonathan Baldwin, guard/center Rodney Hudson, outside linebacker Justin Houston, and defensive lineman Allen Bailey.
The Chiefs top free agent signings were wide out Steve Breaston, nose tackle Kelly Greg, and fullback Le’Ron McClain. While the Chiefs didn’t lose a whole lot from last year’s roster, they will have to replace left guard Brian Waters and outside linebacker Mike Vrable.
Offense:
The Chiefs offense led the league in rushing last year behind the duo of Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones. Charles led the way with 1,467 yards, while Jones added 896 yards. The addition of McClain at fullback figures to only strengthen the running game in 2011. Not only will McClain open up holes for Charles and Jones, but he shown that he is more than capable of running the ball when called upon. McClain should really help Kansas City improve in short distance situations, which is an area they really struggled with last year.
While the offense is focused around the running game, whether or not the Chiefs build off their impressive run in 2010 will depend in large part on the improvements made by Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Cassel. In 2010, Cassel did an outstanding job of taking care of the football, throwing 27 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. If Cassel can continue to get better and emerge into the elite class of quarterbacks, Kansas City will be tough to stop.
What really is impressive about what Cassel and the Chiefs offense did in 2010, is they pretty much played the entire season with one legit threat at wide receiver. Dwayne Bowe earned caught 72 passes for 1,162 yards and an NFL-best 15 receiving touchdowns, earning him his first trip to the Pro Bowl. The additions of Breaston and Baldwin and the return of Jerheme Urban from injury figure to give the Chiefs their best receiving corps in a long time. They also have a rising star at tight end in Moeaki, who finished second on the team with 47 receptions for 556 yards and three touchdowns.
The offensive line really played above expectations last year, and this unit has to continue to play well for the Chiefs to contend this year. The loss of Waters is huge, but the Chiefs appear ready to plug in second year guard Jon Asamoah in his place. The Chiefs have two solid young tackles in Brandon Albert and Barry Richardson, but the depth at tackle is very thin.
Defense:
Romeo Crennel did a great job in his first season as the defensive coordinator in Kansas City, and the Chiefs figure to continue to get better on this side of the ball with so many talented young players.
The addition of Gregg gives Kansas City their first real nose tackle in the 3-4 system, but for the defensive line to really take off former first round picks Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson have to continue to grow and prove they were worth being taken in the top 5 overall. Dorsey made huge strides in his third season, and the hope is that Jackson will do the same in 2011. While Wallace Gilberry only plays in passing situations, he was the Chiefs best pass rusher up front with seven sacks.
At linebacker, Kansas City has one of the premier pass rushers in the game in Pro Bowl outside linebacker Tamba Hali, who led the AFC with 14.5 sacks in 2010. They also have a very good player on the inside in Derrick Johnson, who led the team with 147 tackles. Jovan Beltcher started alongside Johnson in the middle last year, but figures to get a big push from Brandon Siler, who was added via free agency. What Kansas City really needs is a pass rusher to play opposite of Hali on the other side. With Vrable retiring this offseason, the leading candidates to take over are Andy Studebaker and Houston.
The strength of the Chiefs defense lies in the secondary, and Kansas City fans have to be excited about what Berry did in his rookie season in 2010. Berry finished second on the team with 126 tackles and led the team with four interceptions. Kansas City also has two outstanding young corners in Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr, and a number of young corners who are more than capable of making plays in nickel and dime packages. The only starting spot up for grabs is at strong safety, where veteran Jon McGraw and Lewis figure to battle for playing time.
Prediction: 2nd AFC West, 9-7 Overall – By winning the division in 2010, the Chiefs have set themselves up with a brutal schedule in 2011. Last year the Chiefs only two opponents that finished with a winning record were Indianapolis and Seattle, that won’t be the case this season. Kansas City has to play New England, New York (Jets), Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Chicago. The Chiefs still have an outside shot at winning the division, but I think chances are they take a slight step back before really coming on strong in 2012.
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