2010 Kansas City Royals Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

The Kansas City Royals got off to a blazing 18-11 start last season, and led the AL Central division by three games on May 7th. Zach Greinke was a big reason why, going 6-0 with a miniscule 0.40 ERA to that point. Many thought it was a fluke, but Greinke went on to win the AL Cy Young Award and finished with a 2.16 ERA, the lowest in the majors since Pedro Martinez posted a 1.74 ERA in 2000. This team just kept losing from May-on, mainly due to injuries, and Greinke was the only bright spot with the exception of Billy Butler. The Royals have lost at least 93 games in seven of the last nine seasons, and they haven’t been to the postseason since 1985. The Royals projected win total for 2010 is 71.5.

Pitching:

Once you get past Greinke and Gil Meche, the Royals’ starting staff gets pretty ugly. Even Meche had a down year last season in his third with the team, going 6-10 with a 5.09 ERA. Then there’s Brian Bannister who went 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA in ‘08, but improved to 7-12 with a 4.73 ERA in ‘09, though those numbers are still not very good for a No. 3 starter. Luke Hochevar has put up 5.51 and 6.55 ERA’s in the last two years, respectively. Kyle Davies went 8-9 with a 5.27 ERA last season. The Royals did nothing to improve their rotation, and that’s why they likely won’t improve much, if at all from last season. With the exception of closer Joakim Soria, who posted 42 saves and a 1.60 ERA in ‘08 followed by 30 saves and a 2.21 ERA in ‘09, the Royals’ relievers aren’t anything to drool over. Juan Cruz (5.72 ERA LY) and Kyle Farnsworth (4.58 ERA LY) are not the kind of set-up guys most teams would be looking for to get the ball to their closer.

Hitting:

The Royals did make several moves to mix up their line-up, and they are hoping these moves finally pay off this season. Catcher Jason Kendall brings some leadership behind the plate, but he doesn’t bring much in terms of his hitting. Kendall has finished with a BA in the .240’s each of the last 3 years and has failed to surpass 3 home runs in any of the past three seasons. He will help out this young pitching staff, though. Billy Butler will play 1B most of the year, and DH when he’s not in the field. Butler hit .301 with 23 homers and 93 RBI last season, and was clearly their best offensive player. Chris Getz will likely get the nod at 2B, but he’ll have to hold off Alberto Callaspo he hit .300 with 11 HR and 73 RBI last season with the Royals. Yuniesky Betancourt and Mike Aviles will split time at SS, but Betancourt figures to see most of the action after Aviles slipped from a .325 BA in ‘08 to a .183 BA in ‘09 as he battle through injuries for most of the year. Alex Gordon needs to finally live up to his potential at 3B after watching from the bench most of last season due to injury. The outfield actually looks solid with LF Scott Podsednik and CF Rick Ankiel coming over via trade and free-agency. David DeJesus will be in right after hitting .281 last year and scoring 70 or more runs each of the past three seasons. The main DH will be Jose Guillen, who still hits for a lot of power and needs to stay healthy after spending several stints on the DL last season.

Jack’s Prediction: 4th in the AL Central and UNDER 71.5 Wins – Knowing that the Royals have finished with 69 or less wins in seven of the past nine seasons makes me like this UNDER alone. Certainly, there is some promise with the changes they made to their line-up, but other than Greinke this pitching staff just cannot get it done on a consistent level. Not only are the other four starters below-average, but their relievers are some of the worst in the game with the exception of Soria. Pitching wins in the big leagues, and unfortunately for K.C. fans the organization failed to improve their team in this area. It will be a battle between the Royals and Indians for which team finishes in the cellar of the AL Central, but I’ll give K.C. the slight edge.

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