2012 Kansas City Royals Predictions
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
The Kansas City Royals finished up the 2011 season fourth in the AL Central with a 71-91 record, but are coming into the 2012 season with the expectations that they will finish above .500 for the first time since going 83-79 back in 2003. The Royals are absolutely loaded with young talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The big question facing Kansas City is their starting rotation. They went out and added Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants, but he alone won’t put them over the top. For a better idea of what the Royals will look like this season, let’s check out their projected starting lineup, starting rotation, and closer situation.
Projected Lineup
Sal Perez (Catcher) -Perez dazzled in his first stint in the big leagues. The 21-year-old hit .331 with three home runs and 21 RBI in just 39 games. While its a promising start to his career, it’s hard to believe he will be able to maintain that good of an average over the course of a full season. It’s also gonna take some time for him to develop some power. The potential is definitely there, but his best years are likely a couple seasons down the road.
Eric Hosmer (First Base) – The Royals believe they have a future MVP in the makings at first base. In just a 129 games, Hosmer hit .293 with 19 home runs and 78 RBI. The 22-year-old is not only a threat at the plate, but he is a big upgrade defensively. There is some concern that he could struggle in his second season, but my money is on him to deliver with even better numbers in 2012.
Johnny Giavotella (Second Base) – Giavotella is the favorite to win the starting job at second base over Chris Getz this spring, but he still has a lot to prove. Giavotella made his debut in the majors last season, but hit just .247 with two home runs. He isn’t all that great defensively, so he has to show some big improvements with the bat if he is going to keep his job.
Alcides Escobar (Shortstop) – The Royals acquired Escobar in the trade that sent Zach Greinke to Milwaukee. The 25-year-old is a defensive specialist that routinely finds himself on the highlight reel. He got off to a slow start offensively, but showed a bit of his potential by hitting .324 in the final month of the season. He is also a big time threat on the bases. He has 18 triples and 36 steals over the last two seasons.
Mike Moustakas (Third Base) – Moustakas is yet another Royal who made his big league debut last season. The 23-year-old struggled early on, but ended up hitting .263 with five home runs and 30 RBI over 89 games. Kansas City is counting on him to build off that strong finish and really emerge as a force in the middle of the lineup this season.
Alex Gordon (Left Field) – Gordon finally lived up to his potential in 2011. The former No. 2 overall pick in 2005 was a complete disappointment in his first four seasons with the Royals. He turned his career around by hitting .303 with 23 home runs and 87 RBI, but in order to really take that next step he must come back in 2012 and put up similar, if not better numbers.
Lorenzo Cain (Center Field) – Cain is another player acquired in the Greinke deal, but was limited to just six games last year because of all the success the other outfielders were having. Cain has hit .302 in 169 games between the Brewers and Royals. His power improved in the minors last year, but not enough to get excited about. He figures to be an upgrade in center with the potential to hit for a high average and rack up a bunch of steals.
Jeff Francoeur (Right Field) – Francoeur was one of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season. Playing on his fourth team in the last three seasons, the 28-year-old came out of nowhere to hit .285 with 20 home runs, 87 RBI, and 22 steals. As much as the Royals fans are counting on Francoeur to put up similar numbers in 2012, I think there is a better chance he will regress back to his career numbers.
Billy Butler (Designated Hitter) – Butler was reluctant to move to DH last season, but it didn’t seem to effect his offense. He hit .291 with 19 home runs and 95 RBI. Butler has hit right around .300 with at least 15 home runs and 78 RBI in each of the last three seasons. He turns just 26 in April, which means he could be in line for a breakout season if his power continues to develop.
Projected Rotation
Jonathan Sanchez (LHP) – The Royals are counting on Sanchez to pitch like he did in 2010, where he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 33 starts. Last year he was limited to just 19 games because of injuries, and as a result he went 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Not exactly an ace, but he looks like the best starter the Royals have going into the season.
Luke Hochevar (RHP) – Hochevar got back on track with an 11-win season in 2011, but there is plenty of work left to be done. The 28-year-old needs to lower his 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP if Kansas City is going to contend in the AL Central.
Bruce Chen (LHP) – Chen doesn’t get a lot of respect, but he was arguably the Royals best starter in 2011. He went 12-8 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 25 starts. The lefty is 24-15 over the last two seasons, and all signs point to another double-digit win season in 2012.
Felipe Paulino (RHP) – Paulino appeared to get things figured out after coming over in a trade with the Astros. In 20 starts with the Royals the 28-year-old went 4-6 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, after posting a 7.36 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in 18 relief appearances in Houston. His 133 strikeouts in 139.1 innings is a promising sign that Paulino could be ready to take that next step in 2012.
Danny Duffy (LHP) – Duffy struggled in his first season in the big leagues. The 23-year-old went 4-8 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. The youngster walked 51 batters in just 105.1 innings of work. It looks like it will take some time for him to develop into a reliable starter, but the Royals really don’t have any other options at this point.
Projected Closer
Joakim Soria (RHP) – Soria got off to a miserable start in 2011, posting a 6.55 ERA in the first two months of the season. He ended up turning things around and saving 28 games for the Royals. Soria converted 115 of a 124 save opportunities from 2008-10, which has me banking on the 27-year-old to return to form in 2012.
| 2012 Kansas City Royals Odds | |
| World Series | +8000 |
| AL Pennant | +4000 |
| AL Central | +1200 |
| Total Regular Season Wins | O78.5 (-125) |
| U78.5 (-105) |
Over/Under Total Home Runs in the 2012 Regular Season
Erick Hosmer – 25.5
Billy Butler – 18.5
Alex Gordon – 21.5
Over/Under BA in the 2012 Regular Season
Billy Butler – .300
Eric Hosmer – .290
Over/Under Total Wins in the 2012 Regular Season
Jonathan Sanchez – 9
Luke Hochevar – 10.5
MLB Predictions by Team
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