Sweet Sixteen Picks: Kansas vs Michigan State
Written March 26, 2009 by Jay Horne
One of the biggest battles of the sweet sixteen will highlight the defending National Champions the Kansas Jayhawks and the Michigan State Spartans. The Jayhawks will try to defend their crown and continue their late season surge. Kansas was predicted to have a down year this season after losing many players from the championship roster from a year ago. However, the Jayhawks have flourished during the 2nd half of the season capturing Big 12 regular season title honors and earning an appearance in the sweet sixteen. The Jayhawks will face their most difficult opponent so far in the tournament when they take on number 2 seed Michigan State this Friday night in a highly anticipated showdown between the Big Ten and Big 12. Looking at the college basketball lines posted for Friday, Michigan State is favored by 1.5 points over Kansas and the total is set at 139 points.
The battle of titans will feature two solid all-around basketball teams. Michigan State has averaged 72.1 points per game this season which ranks right outside the top 100 teams in America. While those numbers may seem rather low, the Spartans lead the Big Ten in terms of scoring offense considering the conference is not known for high scoring. The Spartans also crash the boards extremely well and have been dominate on the glass. The Spartans have only allowed 27 rebounds per game from opponents which ranks in the top 5 for rebounds allowed. The Spartans also pull down 38 boards per game as a team which ranks inside the top 25. Michigan State rebounding could be a big advantage against a young Kansas team who has performed well on the boards as well. The Spartans leading weapon on offense comes in the 6-0’ frame of sophomore guard Kalin Lucas. Lucas has averaged 14.9 points per game this season and also knocked down 22 points to the lead the Spartans in a big 75-62 win over Kansas earlier this year. The Spartans also have a few more athletes that can come up big from Raymar Morgan to Goran Suton. Michigan State will look for a collective effort to lead them over the defending champions for the second time this season.
Kansas comes into the game after putting up a stout performance over Dayton taking down the Flyers by score of 60-43. Standout guard Sherron Collins led the Jayhawks with a solid night scoring 25 points and shooting nearly 60% from the floor. Kansas got off to slow start this year with their relatively young team. However, the Jayhawks have played excellent basketball down the stretch and are poised for another title run. Except the games from here on out will be much tougher and will require mistake free basketball. Kansas is a team fairly similar to Michigan State in terms of success in the rebounding game. The Jayhawks rank 12th in the nation in rebounding while averaging 77 points per game on offense. The Jayhawks are a strong shooting team that can knock down shots from the outside. It will be interesting to see if Kansas can control the tempo of the game and score some quick baskets against a strong defensive Spartans unit. Kansas guard Sherron Collins is averaging 19 points per game this season as the main threat on offense. The big man in the middle sophomore Cole Aldrich has posted double-double averages with near 15 points per game along with 11 rebounds. Aldrich main job will be to keep Kansas strong on the glass and not allowing the Spartans to gain any advantage. However, Aldrich can be a scoring threat as well which could work out well for the defending champions.
Betting Trends: Kansas is 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games while going 16-3 SU in that same stretch. The Jayhawks have also reached the over total in 66% of their last 15 games. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games while also having a strong 8-1 SU mark in their last 9 outings. The Spartans have also reached the under total in 9 of their last 13 contests of the season.
Jay’s Pick - Take Kansas +1.5
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