Kansas State at Texas Spread
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The 16th-ranked Kansas State Wildcats head to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in Big 12 play Saturday. The Wildcats have been the surprise of the Big 12 this season alongside Oklahoma State. They have also stunned Texas by winning three straight meetings in this series as an underdog, including a 39-14 home victory last season. Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein rushed for 127 yards and two touchdowns, and Garrett Gilbert threw five interceptions to really cost the Longhorns. Texas lost the game despite outgaining the Wildcats 430-273.
Taking a look at the college football spreads for Week 12, I find a line of Texas -8.5 over Kansas State and a total set of 53.5 points.
Texas
The Longhorns have turned it around after a disappointing 2010 season, but they still haven’t played up to the level they had hoped coming into the year. Texas (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) has suffered three conference losses this season, all by double-digits. They were embarrassed by then-No. 3 Oklahoma 55-17 before losing to then-No. 6 Oklahoma State 38-26 the following week. But perhaps the worst of them all was a 5-17 loss at Missouri last Saturday.
It was Tiger head coach Gary Pinkel’s first-ever victory over the Longhorns. Texas was held to just 247 total yards, including 76 rushing. David Ash went 13 of 29 passing for 143 yards with an interception. Jeremy Hills was their leading rusher with 35 yards on 11 carries. The Texas defense allowed Missouri quarterback James Franklin to complete his first 10 passes of the game, and the Tigers racked up 338 total yards of offense. The Longhorns suffered a big blow against the Tigers when Foswhitt Whittaker tore his ACL. Whittaker was their return specialist, and he had also rushed for 386 yards and six touchdowns, but now he’s out for the season.
Texas ranks 44th in the country in total offense (416.0 yards/game), including 15th in rushing (227.4 yards/game). They are also a superb 14th in total defense (313.8 yards/game), including 10th against the run (101.2 yards/game). Their run defense will be vital in stopping the Kansas State offense Saturday. The Longhorns’ leading rusher is Malcolm Brown (635 yards, five TD), but he is questionable to go Saturday with a toe injury. With Whittaker already out, that would leave Joe Bergeron (414 yards, five TD) to shoulder the load. Ash is completing 57.9 percent of his passes for 887 yards with three touchdowns and six interceptions, and Texas ranks just 90th in the FBS in passing offense (188.6 yards/game).
Kansas State
The Wildcats have certainly been the surprise of the conference. While their chances of playing in a BCS bowl were crushed with back-to-back losses to then-No. 9 Oklahoma (58-17) and then-No. 3 Oklahoma State (52-45), this team refused to pack it in last week. Instead, they erased a double-digit deficit in the second half and won a thrilling 53-50 four-overtime game over Texas A&M. It was just one of five close wins for the Wildcats this season. They needed a late touchdown to beat Eastern Kentucky, and a goal line stand on the road against Miami. They came back to beat Baylor by a single point, and also erased a big deficit to top Texas Tech.
Kansas State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) received another terrific performance from Collin Klein, who is one of the most underrated players in the country. Klein threw for 281 yards and a touchdown against the Aggies, while also rushing for 103 yards and a whopping five scores. His final touchdown came on a sneak from a yard out in the fourth overtime to give his team the victory. Chris Harper had a big day receiving, catching four balls for 134 yards and a score. The win was especially sweet for head coach Bill Snyder, who was on the sideline in 1998 when the Wildcats lost to Texas A&M in double overtime. That loss in the Big 12 championship cost Kansas State a chance to play for a national title.
The numbers this team has posted do not “wow” you, but Kansas State just keeps finding different ways to win. The Wildcats rank 82nd in the country in total offense (364.1 yards/game), including 22nd in rushing (208.5 yards/game). They rank 80th in total defense (410.7 yards/game), but an impressive 25th against the run (117.1 yards/game). Klein does it all for their offense, throwing for 1,504 yards and 10 touchdowns to five interceptions, while also rushing for a team-high 1,009 yards and a ridiculous 24 scores. John Hubert has chipped in 781 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Betting Trends
The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, but just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
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