2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Written by Jack Jones - Google +
The field is pretty much set for the 2012 running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. 20 three-year-old thoroughbred horses will line the track in this Grade I stakes race for a chance to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. While the winner will still have to win the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes later in the year, you can’t win the Triple Crown without taking home the checkered flag at the derby.
Last year, Dialed in went off as a 5-to-1 favorite, but finished a disappointing eighth. What makes this race so entertaining every year is that the favorite rarely wins. It was Animal Kingdom at 20-to-1 that found the extra gear down the stretch to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Shackleford led most of the way, but didn’t have enough to hold off Animal Kingdom, Nehro or Mucho Macho Man.
The 2012 Kentucky Derby looks to be as wide open as ever, making it extremely hard to predict who will come out on top. With the race scheduled for Saturday, May 5, there is still plenty of time to get in your bets. Here is a look at my 1-2-3 finish for this year’s race.
Win – I’ll Have Another (15/1)
This colt has been going under the radar, and for the odds, I believe this is the best bet for your money. I’ll Have Another is unbeaten in two starts this year. He won the Santa Anita Derby by a nose over Creative Cause as the two went head-to-head down the stretch. I’ll Have Another showed he had enough guts to hold off a very good horse, cementing himself as a serious Derby Contender. Plus, this horse has an excellent pedigree which suggests he shouldn’t have a problem running a mile and a quarter.
Place – Union Rags (9/2)
This horse has been at the top of the Kentucky Derby top 10 lists, as well as all the futures wagers in Las Vegas since winter. Union Rags will be one of the favorites on race day alongside Bodemeister. While he finished a disappointing third in his final prep race at the Florida Derby, Union Rags backers can actually take a lot of positives out of that race. He simply had a bad trip, but ran the final 18th of a mile in 6.37 seconds, while also running 41 feet further than winner Take Charge Indy over the course of the trip. If Union Rags gets a clean trip, this could very well be the winner on May 5th.
Show – Gemologist (7/1)
The son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow, Gemologist has a lot going for him heading into the Kentucky Derby. He is a perfect five-for-five in his career, and winning races is what it’s all about. Plus, with trainer Todd Pletcher on his side, Gemologist has one of the best in the business. He runs best when stalking the early leaders, then running them down over the final furlong. That’s the perfect style for this mile and a quarter race. He did have to dig deep to fend off Alpha in the Wood Memorial earlier this year, but you can expect to see Gemologist among the top three by race’s end.
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