2012 Kentucky Derby Selections
Written by Steve Janus - Google +
It’s time to get out that fancy hat of yours, as the 2012 Kentucky Derby is just one day away. The best three-year old Thoroughbred horses in the business will try to add their name to the record books at Churchill Downs this Saturday. What most consider the “Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” is scheduled to start at 6:23 EST and will be televised nationally on NBC.
Who will win “The Run for the Roses” this year? That is a question a lot of people have been trying to figure out over the last two weeks. The Kentucky Derby is without question the biggest horse racing event in the United States. While there are a number of people who simply watch the race for it’s entertainment value, most hardcore fans have some form of wager on who will be the first across the finish line.
Unfortunately picking the winner is no easy task. There are times when you have that one horse that is head and shoulders above the other horses in field, but nothing is certain in the world of horse racing. While Bodemeister and Union Rags come into the race as the two big favorites, most believe this is one of the stronger fields in recent years. In my opinion, close to 3/4 of the field has a legit shot at leaving the Derby with the win.
There are so many factors that play into who will end up winning the race. One that can sometimes get overlooked is the jockey. There are two jockeys in the field that you simply can’t ignore when filling out your card. Calvin Borel and Kent Desormeaux each come in with three Kentucky Derby titles. Desormeaux won last with Big Brown in 2008. It just so happened to be the only jockey to win during a string of absolute dominance by Borel, who won three times from 2007 to 2010. Both jockeys figure to have a decent shot this Saturday. Desormeaux will be aboard Dullahan, who currently has the fourth best odds (8 to 1) in the field. Borel will be riding Take Charge Indy, who comes in with the fifth best odds (10 to 1).
A lot of people are expecting a very fast pace at the start. Trinniberg is known for getting off the blocks in a hurry. While I personally don’t think Trinniberg has a great shot at winning, he is going to have a huge impact on how the races plays out. There’s a good chance a couple of the big contenders could waste some valuable energy trying to keep up with Trinniberg, leaving them without enough to close down the stretch.
While a lot of experts have had their picks in for over a week, I like to wait until the pole positions are released before I make my final decision. While a horse can’t win the race by what pole position they draw, I believe it can greatly limit their chances if they draw a post that doesn’t fit their style.
Steve’s 2012 Kentucky Derby Picks
1. Gemologist
2. Take Charge Indy
3. Bodemeister
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