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Kentucky vs Florida College Football Point Spread

Written September 25, 2009 by Hector Garza

How bad is #1 Florida going to beat up on unranked Kentucky this Saturday night at 6 p.m. EDT? Let’s take a look at last year’s game, where the Gators put up 63 points and allowed 5 for the Wildcats. QB Tim Tebow passed for 2 td’s and ran for another 2, while the special teams blocked 2 punts and a field goal. The Wildcats had numerous injuries to blame, and at 2-0 they’re looking to break the skid of 22 straight losses. The college football odds have picked the Gators by 21 ½ points, with the total at 53 ½.

Tim Tebow has started the last 3 years, in which time he’s amassed two national championships and Heisman Trophy. He’s looking for more, and the offense is running smoothly under his toughness and experience. Through 3 games Florida is averaging 47 ppg, and what’s most impressive is that they’re gaining more yards on the ground (289.3 ypg) than in the air (247.3 ypg). One weakness may be the turnover margin, as the offense gave up two against Tennessee last week for a total of 5 in the last two games. If you bet college football, you need to check out this $500 match bonus at BetUS.

Florida ranks #4 nationally in scoring defense, giving up 7.3 ppg. They’ve amassed 4 sacks through 3 contests, a number they hope to improve on. An important note is that the defensive captain, LB Brandon Spikes, may miss the game due to tendonitis in the ankle. LB Ryan Stamper will be there to fill the gap, as he already has an impressive 18 tackles, 3 for a loss, along with a sack and forced fumble. The secondary has been stellar and is led by CB Joe Haden and SS Ahmed Black, who each had an interception in last week’s game against Tennessee.

Kentucky is coming off a sloppy win against in-state rival Louisville. The Wildcats had 3 turnovers in the 3rd quarter, but QB Mike Hartline eventually got the job done. The offense has a balanced attack, as Hartline has thrown for an average of 200 yds/game for 3 td’s and a 70% completion percentage. Versatile RB Derrick Locke has averaged 5.8 ypc for two touchdowns, and the offensive line is one of the few left in the country that has yet to give up a sack!

Defensively they’ve been getting the job done, collecting 5 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss. In week 1 they played an inferior Miami (Ohio) team and shut them out, only to give up 27 points to Louisville. To have a chance against the Gators they’ll need to continue their average of 2.5 sacks/game. Florida has shown weakness in that area, giving up 3 sacks last week to Tennessee. MLB Micah Johnson must have a great game mirroring Tebow and limiting his yardage.

Florida leads the overall series 42-17, and they’ve picked up where they left off last year in their run for another title. Kentucky is balanced and will need to play an error free game to keep this one close. The key could be special teams, where Locke has shown he’s a threat with a kickoff return for 100 yards already this year. While Florida has the speed and skill to turn this into another rout, look for Kentucky to keep it closer at home.

Garza’s Pick: Kentucky +21.5

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