Kentucky at Georgia Line

Written by Steve Janus

The No. 14 Georgia Bulldogs will look to secure their spot in the SEC Championship Game when they host the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. The Bulldogs cruised past Auburn 45-7 for their eight straight win since opening the season 0-2, and are just one game away from clinching the East division. Things haven’t been going so well for the Wildcats, who got destroyed at Vanderbilt 8-38. Kentucky is just 4-6 overall and 1-5 in SEC play this season. The Bulldogs have won three of the last four in the series, including a 44-31 win at Kentucky last season.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football spreads, oddsmakers currently have Georgia favored by 30.5-points over Kentucky with the total set at 48.5 points.

Kentucky:

The Wildcats looked like they were gaining some momentum after beating Mississippi 30-13 for their second win in three games, but that simply wasn’t the case. Kentucky went on the road and got absolutely crushed by a Vanderbilt team that was just 1-5 in conference play. It was their third straight loss by 28 points or more on the road this season.

Kentucky’s offense has been about as bad as you can get on the road this season. Their eight points and 211 yards of total offense against Vanderbilt were both season-highs on the road. Starting quarterback Maxwell Smith provided most of the offense against the Commodores, throwing for 179 yards including a 22-yard touchdown pass to Nick Melillo. However, their inability to run the ball away from home has been their biggest problem. Kentucky managed just 32 rushing yards on 22 attempts against Vanderbilt, and are averaging just under 67 yards a game on the road this season.

With the way Georgia has played on the defensive side of late, it wouldn’t come as a surprise at all if the Wildcats didn’t score a single point this Saturday. Georgia is 4th in the country in total yards allowed (273.3 ypg). They are 5th in the country against the run (87.1 ypg) and 15th against the pass (186.2 ypg).

Georgia:

Few expected the Bulldogs to amount to much of anything after opening the season with back-t0-bakc losses against Boise State and South Carolina, but this team has answered the call with an amazing eight game winning streak that has them sitting in the drivers seat in the SEC East.

You can expect the Bulldogs to bring their best to the field against Kentucky with all that is at stake in this game. If they play anything like they did against Auburn last week, this game will be over by the end of the first quarter. Georgia jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead before putting on the cruise control in the second half. Aaron Murray threw for 224 yards and four touchdowns on 14 of 18 passing, while Isaiah Crowell and Carlton Thomas combined for 259 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

The Bulldogs offense figures to have their way against a very poor Kentucky defense, especially on the ground where Kentucky is giving up 197.2 ypg. On the year Kentucky is allowing a poor 392 yards a game of total offense, but that number jumps up to 466 when they play on the road. As long as Georgia shows up to play, they are going to win this game with ease. The only concern when it comes to covering the large spread is whether or not they call off the dogs in the second half and rest some of their key players to avoid injury.

Betting Trends:

Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Georgia is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Steve Janus is the No. 5 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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