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Kentucky at Mississippi State

The Kentucky Wildcats (4-4, 1-4) travel to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-2, 2-2) in SEC play Saturday afternoon. Mississippi State is the No. 23 ranked team in the land, and climbed into the Top 25 last week for the first time since 2001. The odds are posted for this game, with the most recent lines showing us Mississippi State -6.5 over Kentucky.

Feeling the pressure of being inside the Top 25 for the first time in nearly a decade, Mississippi State struggled against UAB last week. They had to rally to beat the Blazers 29-24 after trailing early in the fourth quarter. Head coach Dan Mullen was thankful they came away with a win while acknowledging the Bulldogs did not play their best game.

“We didn’t play our best game,” Mullen said, “but we did the important things you need to do to win. All that’s behind us, that’s old hat now,” Mullen said. “When you get that attention for the first time, you can lose a little bit of what got you there. Now we’re bowl eligible, we don’t have to worry about that, and we can concentrate on being a better football team.”

Their fifth straight win over the weekend made Mississippi State bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. Despite not being named the place kicker until right before kickoff against UAB, Derek DePasquale proved to be the difference in the game. DePasquale tied a school record with five made field goals, connecting on all five attempts.

Mullen hopes to have running back Vick Ballard for the Kentucky game this weekend after he sat out against UAB due to a sprained ankle. If Ballard is able to go, it would give this Mississippi State offense a huge boost as he leads the team in rushing with 516 yards and 12 touchdowns. Freshman LaDarius Perkins played well in Ballard’s place last week, rushing for 131 yards and a score. QB Chris Relf must be better than he was against the Blazers, completing only 8-of-19 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown.

The Bulldogs defense allowed UAB QB Bryan Ellis to throw for 236 yards and a touchdown, and this secondary will have their hands full against Mike Hartline and the Wildcats. Hartline has thrown for 2,144 yards and 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions this season, clearly one of the most underrated passers in the SEC. Kentucky racked up 423 total yards against Georgia despite losing 31-44 to the Bulldogs last week.

The Wildcats have lost four of their last five right in the teeth of their SEC schedule. It won’t get any easier against the Bulldogs, especially if they cannot improve on stopping the run. Kentucky is the 89th-ranked team in the country against the run at 176.1 rushing yards per game. Another big key for the Wildcats is turnovers. In their four wins, they sport a plus-8 turnover margin. But in their four losses, Kentucky is minus-7 in turnovers margin.

Jack’s Free Prediction: Kentucky +6.5 – I certainly believe that the tough schedule the Wildcats have faced over their last 5 games will have them ready to go against what I feel is an overrated Mississippi State team Saturday. The clear value in this game is with the underdog, especially with a quarterback that can put points on the board in a hurry. Mike Hartline’s 2,144 passing yards and 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions is getting overlooked due to this team’s mediocre 4-4 start. The Bulldogs are on upset alert this Saturday.