2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowl Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in the 2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowl. This game is set to take place at 3:30 EST on December 31st in Memphis, Tennessee. The Commodores will clearly have a home-field advantage considering this game will be played in their home state. Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2 Big East) clinched a share of their conference title. Vanderbilt (6-6, 2-6 SEC) did an excellent job just to make the postseason after coming into the year with little expectations.

According to the latest college football odds, Vanderbilt is a 1.5-point favorite over Cincinnati with a total set of 48.5 points.

Vanderbilt

After consecutive 2-10 seasons, the Commodores did not have many believers coming into the year. Vanderbilt proved a lot of people wrong this season under first-year head coach James Franklin. They also had to overcome the loss of 2009 SEC freshman of the year, Warren Norman, who couldn’t overcome a knee injury that forced him to miss the final four games last year.

Junior running back Zach Stacy stepped in for Norman and played admirably. He broke the single-season rushing record at Vanderbilt by scampering for 1,136 yards and 13 touchdowns. Stacy averaged a whopping 125.8 yards/game over his final six contests.

Also making a huge difference for this team was quarterback Jordan Rodgers, brother of Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He completed 51.5 percent of his passes for 1,498 yards with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also rushing for 387 yards and four scores.

This team had to win two of their final three games of the season just to become bowl eligible. They allowed a total of just 15 points in wins over Kentucky and Wake Forest, outscoring those two opponents 79-15. This team has been winning with defense all year. The Commodores rank 19th in the country in total defense (324.6 yards/game). Vanderbilt will be making just their fifth bowl appearance all-time, going 2-1-1 in their previous four.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats put together a solid season under second-year head coach Butch Jones. Cincinnati is probably disappointed that they aren’t playing in a BCS bowl after opening the year 7-1, including 3-0 in conference play. If it wasn’t for QB Zach Collaros going down with a broken ankle, they just may have won the Big East title outright.

Collaros is actually recovering faster than expected from that broken ankle, and it appears he is going to play in the Liberty Bowl. He completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,860 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions in in eight games while also rushing for eight scores. Backup Munchie Legaux completed just 45.9 percent of his passes in four starts, so getting Collaros back would be a huge upgrade.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the turnaround for the Bearcats this season was their defense. Cincinnati gave up just 20.0 points/game this season, and they were first in the country in sacks (3.6) and tacklers for loss (8.9) per game. The Bearcats ranked 46th in total defense (361.5 yards/game). Isaiah Pead carried the load offensively, rushing for 1,110 yards and 11 scores.

Cincinnati had been to four straight bowls before coming up short after a 4-8 campaign last year. The Bearcats are 5-6 all-time in bowl games, and coach Jones is 0-2 in his career in the postseason. They made the Sugar Bowl in 2009 and entered as the #4 team in the country after a 12-0 regular season, but were manhandled 51-24 by Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators.

Betting Trends

The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.

The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, but only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 or less.

Projected Score: Vanderbilt 25 – Cincinnati 23

Be sure to check out the college bowl predictions offered by expert handicapper Jack Jones.

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