Lions Buccaneers Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off Sunday in a rematch from last season’s thrilling showdown at Raymond James Stadium. Detroit came into that December 19th showdown in the midst of the longest road losing streak in NFL history. The Lions got a field goal from Dave Rayner in overtime to win 23-20, snapping their 27-game skid away from home.

Odds makers expect this rematch to go right down to the wire as well. The Buccaneers are listed as 1-point home favorites with a total set of 40.5 points.

Detroit

Expectations are growing in Detroit for a young Lions team that won their final four games of the regular season last year. They haven’t lost since, compiling a perfect 4-0 record in the preseason. Matthew Stafford has been a big reason for their success. Detroit’s QB has completed 25 of 33 passes for 395 yards and five touchdowns without throwing an interception. Injuries have kept Stafford from reaching his true potential since being taken No. 1 overall in 2009. He has played in just 13 games the past two seasons.

Calvin Johnson is one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL. He earned a trip to the Pro Bowl last season after finishing with 1,120 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Johnson had a monster season despite catching balls from three different quarterbacks. The offense looks to be in good shape, but there are some injury concerns. Detroit’s top three picks in the 2011 NFL Draft have all missed time this season. Nick Fairley hasn’t played since fracturing his left foot last month, Tutus Young missed the first two preseason games with a hamstring injury, and Mikel Leshoure is out for the season after tearing his Achilles

While Fairley is expected to sit Sunday, the Lions still featured one of the best defensive lines in the league. They have NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc in opposing backfields. Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril know how to get after the quarterback at defensive end, and Corey Williams is underrated in the middle. Adding Stephen Tulloch and Justin Durant at linebacker should give the Lions one of the strongest front sevens in the game.

Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers’ loss to Detroit last season kept them from the playoffs. Tampa Bay finished 10-6, sitting in a three-way tie with the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants. The Packers won the tiebreaker, and we all know what happened from there. Still, the Lions completed the biggest turnaround of any team after going 3-13 in 2009. Their ten wins were somewhat bittersweet because they joined the Giants as the first two NFC Teams to win double-digit games and not make the playoffs.

Quarterback Josh Freeman has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league. Freeman is coming off his first full season as a starter. He finished with 3,451 passing yards and 25 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Contributing to his success was rookie Mike Williams, who led the team with 65 receptions for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. Kellen Winslow also had a big year, catching 66 balls for 730 yards and five touchdowns.

Another surprise came from a rookie in RB LeGarrette Blount. He led all rookies with 1,007 rushing yards and six touchdowns, averaging a jaw-dropping 5.0 yards/carry. Like the Lions, this is another young team with a bright future. They added Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers in the draft to help bolster a defensive line that registered just 26 sacks, which was the lowest mark in the NFC.

Betting Trends

The Buccaneers are riding a 7-2-1 ATS run over their last 10 games. They have not been that good at home though, going just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games at Raymond James Stadium.

The Lions were more than 3-point underdogs in each of their final four games last year. Not only did they cover all four, they won every one outright. They haven’t been as good in this price range, though. The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Looking at head-to-head action, I find that the Lions are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.

If you want winning NFL advice for Week 1, then check out what expert handicapper Jack Jones has in store.

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