LIons Packers Spread

Written by Steve Janus

The Green Bay Packers will host the Detroit Lions in the final week of the regular season. The Packers locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a 35-21 win over the Chicago Bears. The Lions secured a Wild Card spot with an impressive 38-10 win over San Diego. While the Packers don’t have anything to gain by winning this week, Detroit is trying to make sure they get the No. 5 seed. The Lions will do just that with a win or an Atlanta loss. With the No. 5 seed Detroit can avoid having to play at New Orleans or at San Francisco in the first round.

Taking a look at the week 17 NFL lines, oddsmakers currently have the Lions favored by 3.5-points over the Packers with the total set at 46.5 points.

Detroit Lions:

I expect the Lions to come out and give it their all this week. I don’t think there is any doubt head coach Jim Schwartz understands how much it would benefit Detroit to bring home the No. 5 seed. Assuming the 49ers take care of business against the struggling Rams, the Lions would have to play the Saints at home if they were to end up with the No. 6 seed. Detroit lost 17-31 at New Orleans back in week 13 and upset 19-24 at home by the 49ers back in week 6.

If Detroit can play like they did in their win over the Chargers last week, it might not matter who they face in the playoffs. Matthew Stafford completed 29 of 36 attempts for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford has really elevated his game during the Lions current three-game winning streak. During the stretch Stafford has averaged 330 passing yards with nine touchdowns to zero interceptions.

Stafford didn’t exactly have his best game when the Lions faced the Packers back on Thanksgiving. He completed 32 of 45 attempts for 276 yards, but had just one touchdown to three picks. The Lions offense as a whole struggled in that game, as they were held scoreless over the first three quarters.

There is a lot of pressure on Stafford to have a big game, as the Lions ground game is one of the worst in the NFL. Detroit hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in a game since putting up 136 yards in the loss to Green Bay.

The good news for the Lions is the Packers likely won’t keep their star defensive players on the field for long. Even if Green Bay plays their starters the entire game, I can’t see a very good effort out of the defense. The Packers defense hasn’t been playing well as it is, and will be less than motivated to give their best in a game that doesn’t matter.

Green Bay Packers:

While head coach Mike McCarthy isn’t saying how long he will play his starters, I don’t think there is any doubt that we will see a lot of backups in this game for the Packers. As much as the players might want to beat the Lions after what Suh did in the first game, I think they are more focused on defending their Super Bowl.

While Aaron Rodgers has a chance to reach the 5,000 yard plateau and tie or beat Tom Brady’s 50 touchdown record for a single season, I expect to see a lot of Matt Flynn in this game. There is no question the Packers offense will take a hit without Rodgers leading the way, but Flynn has shown a lot of promise when he has been given the opportunity to play.

The Packers have a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and not all of them can sit out the entire game. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Packers offense moved the ball against a Lions defense that has been hit or miss all season.

When it comes down to it, I have a hard time seeing the Packers winning this game or even keeping it close for that matter. Detroit has too much to play for in this game, but a Green Bay win is not out of the question.

Betting Trends:

Detroit is 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.

Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this week in the NFL.

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