Lions Saints Odds

Written by Jack Jones

The New Orleans Saints host the Detroit Lions in the NFC wild card round Saturday. New Orleans went 13-3 this season and tied with the San Francisco 49ers for the second-best record in the NFC. They lost the tiebreaker, which gave them the No. 3 seed and forced the Saints to have to play a first-round game. Detroit went 10-6 this season and will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

This is a rematch from a 31-17 home victory by the New Orleans Saints on December 4th. The Lions actually outgained the Saints 466-438, but they were done in by costly penalties. Detroit was flagged 11 times for 107 yards, while New Orleans was only penalized three times for 30 yards. Drew Brees went 26 of 36 passing for 342 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Matthew Stafford completed 31 of 44 passes for 408 yards with one touchdown and one pick.

Taking a look at the wild card round odds, I find a line of New Orleans -11 over Detroit and a total set of 59 points

New Orleans

The Saints are starting to look like the team that won the Super Bowl just two years ago. New Orleans has won eight straight games, and most of those have been in dominant fashion. This is the hottest team in the league coming into the playoffs and the team that nobody wants to play, especially in the Superdome.

New Orleans went 8-0 at home this season while outscoring opponents 41.1 to 17.9 on average. It was by far the biggest point differential in the league. The Saints come in ranked 1st in the NFL in total offense (467.1 yards/game) and 23rd in total defense (368.4 yards/game).

While they have done most of their damage through the air (334 passing yards/game), the Saints have been able to run the ball effectively as well (133 yards/game, 4.9/carry). Drew Brees broke Dan Marino’s record for most passing yards in a season. He threw completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 5,476 yards with 46 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this year.

Jimmy Graham also broke the tight end record for most receiving yards in a season. Graham caught 99 balls for 1,310 yards with 11 touchdowns as Brees’ go-to target. Marques Coltson was productive as well, catching 80 balls for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. Darren Sproles was perhaps the best free agent acquisition this offseason. He had a team-high 603 rushing yards and two scores while adding 86 catches for 710 yards and seven scores.

Detroit

The Lions have had an up and down season, but the bottom line is that they will be going for the playoffs for the first time since 1999. To win their first playoff game since 1991, they are going to have to play their best game of the year, and not make the same mistakes they did in the first meeting.

Detroit opened the season with five straight victories, but they would go on to lose five of their next seven. The Lions would rebound by winning three straight before dropping their finale 45-41 at Green Bay. That loss cost them the No. 5 seed, which would have meant playing the shaky New York Giants instead of New Orleans.

To give them some credit, the Lions have been playing through injuries all season. With Jahvid Best missing most of the season, they have had no running game. The Lions rank 29th in the league in rushing offense (95.2 yards/game). That has made life a lot more difficult on Matthew Stafford, but he’s risen to the occasion. Stafford is completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 5,038 yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

To put their running game into perspective, Best is still their leading rusher with 390 yards. Kevin Smith (356 yards, four TD) will be called upon to carry the load Saturday, provided he’s fully recovered from an ankle injury. Star receiver Calvin Johnson had another big year, finishing with 96 receptions while leading the league in receiving yards (1,681) and receiving touchdowns (16). Tight end Brandon Pettigrew was also productive, catching 83 balls for 777 yards and five scores.

Betting Trends

The Lions are 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater, but just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Saints are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

If you want winning NFL advice in the wild card round, then turn to expert handicapper Jack Jones.

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