2011 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Odds

Written by Steve Janus

The Western Michigan Broncos and Purdue Boilermakers are set to face off in the Little Caesar Pizza Bowl on Tuesday, December 27. The game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit and will be televised nationally on ESPN. This will be the Boilermakers first bowl game since 2007 and the Broncos first since 2008.

Taking a look at the college football bowl lines, oddsmakers currently have Purdue favored by 2.5-points over Western Michigan with the total set at 60 points.

Purdue:

The Boilermakers made some nice strides in the third year under head coach Danny Hope. Purdue finished the season 6-6 overall and were 3rd in the Big Ten Leaders Division with a 4-4 conference record. The season was highlighted by a 21-14 win over then No. 23 Illinois and a 26-23 overtime win at home over Ohio State.

Purdue doesn’t exactly have an offense that will scare an opposing defense. The Boilermakers averaged just 26.1 points per game and were 75th in total yards with an average of 371.5. The strength of the offense is their ability to pound the football on the ground. The Boilermakers finished with the 39th best rushing attack in the country at 174.7 ypg. The ground attack was led by junior Ralph Bolden, who carried it 148 times for 674 yards and six touchdowns. You also have to keep an eye on true freshman Akeem Shavers, who rushed for 370 yards and six scores on 89 attempts.

As for the passing game, the Boilermakers have really struggled to find a solution at quarterback. Junior Caleb TerBush and senior Robert Marve continue to both see action. Sophomore Rob Henry would have been the starter, but suffered a season-ending knee injury before the season even started. Purdue comes in averaging just 196.8 ypg through the air.

Luckily for the Boilermakers, they take on a Western Michigan defense that fits their attack perfectly. The Broncos are holding opposing teams to just 218.2 passing yards a game, but are 102nd against the run allowing 215.9 ypg.

Western Michigan:

The Broncos ended up finishing the with a 7-5 overall record. They are guaranteed to end the year with their best record since going 9-4 back in 2008. Western Michigan went 5-3 in the MAC, which was good enough for 3rd in the West Division.

There is no secret to what the Broncos like to do when they have the football. Western Michigan features one of the best passing attacks in the country with an average of 328.8 ypg. Junior quarterback Alec Carder completed 67% of his attempts for 3,434 yards with 28 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions.

Carder’s favorite weapon on the outside is senior wide out Jordan White, who caught 127 passes for 1,646 yards and 16 touchdowns. Carder also had a lot of success throwing to seniors Chelb Ravenell (59 catches/769 yards/ 8 TDs) and Robert Arnheim (59 catches/662 yards/ 4 TDs).

Don’t expect to see a whole lot from the Broncos ground game. Western Michigan finished 87th in rushing, averaging just 127.4 ypg. Sophomore Tevin Drake led the team with just 570 yards and four scores.

While Purdue’s offense appears well matched against the Western Michigan defense, the Broncos will take on a Purdue defense that played its best against the pass. Purdue had the 37th ranked pass defense (202.8 ypg), but were horrible against the run (185.7 ypg).

Betting Trends:

Purdue is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Western Michigan is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.

Predicted Score: Purdue 31, Western Michigan 29

Be sure to stop back and check out who Steve Janus has picked to win this college football bowl season.

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