LSU at Mississippi Line

Written by Steve Janus

The top-ranked LSU Tigers are set to go on the road to face the Mississippi Rebels in an SEC matchup between two teams headed in different directions. The Tigers finished up the non-conference portion of their schedule with an easy 42-9 win over Western Kentucky, while the Rebels got owned by Louisiana Tech 7-27 at home. LSU had to hold on for a 43-36 win at home against Mississippi last season, but are expected to completely dominate this game from start to finish.

Taking a look at the week 12 college football lines, oddsmakers currently have LSU favored by 29.5-points over Mississippi with the total set at 46.5 points.

Mississippi:

It’s been a season to forget for the Rebels, who just lost their fifth consecutive game against a mediocre team out of the WAC. Mississippi’s only two wins this season have came against Southern Illinois and Fresno State. It’s not a matter of whether or not the Rebels will lose this weekend, it’s by how much. Mississippi averages just 18.7 ppg on the season, while giving up just over 30 a contest.

In their last game against Louisiana Tech they jumped out to 7-0 lead on a 34-year touchdown pass from Randall Mackey to Brandon Bolden, but that was all the offense they would manage the entire game. Mackey would finish the game just 6 of 18 for 106 yards before he was eventually replaced junior Zack Stoudt. Bodlen provided the Rebels with most of their offense, leading the team with 46 rushing yards and 66 receiving yards.

The Rebels average just 296.8 yards of total offense a game, and figure to have one heck of time getting to that mark against a LSU defense that allows just over 253 yards a game. LSU features one of the best run defenses in the country, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground, and that will make it extremely hard for Mississippi to sustain any drives and put points on the board.

LSU:

The only thing that figures to stop LSU from completely blowing this game wide open is the Tigers themselves. There’s no question LSU is going to come in and make sure they get a win, but how motivated can this team really be with a huge matchup against No. 6 Arkansas on the schedule next week.

The Tigers had a similar game against Western Kentucky last week, and it took them some time to get going in that one. LSU led that game by a score of just 14-7 at half, before coming alive for 28 points in the final two periods. While Mississippi doesn’t provide a huge scare, anything can happen on the road in the SEC.

The Tigers high-powered rushing attack did most of the damage against Western Kentucky, as they piled on 291 yards on the ground behind 119 yards and two touchdowns from sophomore Alfred Blue. Michael Ford added 62 yards and Spencer Ware chipped in 39 yards, as the Tigers averaged a whopping 7.3 yards per carry.

Jordan Jefferson attempted just 14 passes the entire game, but completed eight of those for 168 yards, including a 59-yard pass and catch to wide out Rueben Randle.

What a lot of people didn’t realize coming into that game is how hard Western Kentucky plays on the defensive side of the ball. LSU figures to have a much easier time moving the ball against a Rebels defense that is 91st in the country allowing just over 425 yards of total offense a game. Mississippi biggest weakness is stopping the run, where they give up 209.9 ypg.

Betting Trends:

LSU is -0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.

Mississippi is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Steve Janus is the No. 5 college football handicapper in 2011, and is ready to help you turn a profit with his week 12 college football selections.

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