LSU at Mississippi State Spread

Written by Jack Jones

In a battle between Top 25 teams, the No. 3 LSU Tigers visit the No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs on Thursday night in Week 3 college football action. This is the first SEC game for the Tigers, while the Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back after a loss to Auburn in their conference opener. Start time is set for 8:00 EST in this showdown will be nationally televised on ESPN.

After taking a look at the Week 3 college football odds, I find that LSU is a 3.5-point road favorite over Mississippi State.

LSU

After beating Oregon 40-27 in their opener, the Tigers came back and took care of business against Northwestern State last week. The Tigers led 28-3 by halftime, allowing many of their starters to rest in the second half as LSU rolled to a 49-3 victory. QB Jarrett Lee went 9 of 10 passing for 133 yards and a touchdown before giving way to junior college transfer, Zach Mettenberger. The Tigers backup completed 8 of 11 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

The Demons did get a field goal on the board against LSU, which should be considered somewhat of an accomplishment. That’s because it’s the only points Northwestern State has ever scored against the Tigers in 11 meetings. Leading the way on the ground for LSU was Michael Ford, who had 13 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Spencer Ware also added two scores for the Tigers. Rueben Randle led all receivers with five catches for 121 yards. For the game, the Tigers outgained the Demons 400-95.

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs dominated Memphis 59-14 in Week 1. Auburn should have lost to Utah State in their opener, but they escaped with a 42-38 victory just like they always seem to do. That was a big reason why the Bulldogs came into their SEC opener as favorites last week against the Tigers. Mississippi State fell behind 14-0 right away thanks to a fluke interception that bounced of a receiver’s helmet and was returned for a touchdown. They fought back to tie it at 14-14 before the end of the first quarter.

It was a tightly-contested game the rest of the way until the Bulldogs found themselves behind 41-27 early in the fourth quarter. They made it a 7-point game with a Vick Ballard TD run with just under five minutes remaining, and would get one last chance to tie it. Ryan Smith came up with a huge hit at the goal line on the game’s final play, stopping Chris Relf just inches short of the game-tying score.

Mississippi State seemed like the dominant team for much of the game despite being behind. They outgained Auburn 531-381, and got a pair of 100-yard rushing efforts from Ballard (135 yards) and Relf (106 yards). Relf also completed 20 of 33 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown. They only turned the ball over once, and held a 36-24 edge in time of possession.

Betting Trends

LSU has won 11 straight meetings in this series, with Mississippi State’s last victory coming at home in 1999 by a final of 17-16. The Tigers have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings overall. LSU beat the Bulldogs 29-7 at home last year, but escaped with a fortunate 30-26 road victory in 2009 despite getting outgained 263-374. The Tigers are 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings at Mississippi State.

Despite all of the success that the Tigers have had under Les Miles, they are just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games. LSU is also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Mississippi State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games as well.

Additional Resources:

Vernon Croy – Another preview of the game.

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