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LSU at West Virginia Odds

The LSU Tigers and West Virginia Mountaineers square off Saturday in a rematch of last year’s 20-14 road victory by the Tigers. Both offenses were held in check last season as LSU outgained WVU 236-178. Now, the Mountaineers have a more potent offense this season, while the Tigers defense has only gotten stronger. It’s strength vs. strength here in a game that will be nationally televised on ABC at 8:00 EST Saturday night.

Taking a look at the week 4 lines, I find a spread of LSU -5.5 over West Virginia.

LSU

No BCS team has played a tougher schedule in the early going than No. 2 ranked LSU. The Tigers have faced two Top 25 opponents, and now they will play a third in the No. 16 Mountaineers Saturday. LSU beat Oregon 40-27 in their opener while limiting the Ducks to 335 total yards and causing four turnovers. They topped Mississippi State last week 19-6, holding the Bulldogs to 193 total yards and forcing two interceptions. Sandwiched in between those two contests was a 49-3 victory over Northwestern State.

The Tigers boast arguably the best defense in the land. They rank No. 6 in total defense (207.7 yards/game) and No. 14 in scoring defense (12.0 points/game). The Tigers have not been known as an offensive juggernaut over the last few years, and aren’t much better on this side of the ball thus far in 2011. LSU is just No. 79 in the nation in total offense (344.7 yards/game), but they are a respectable No. 34 in scoring (36.0 points/game).

QB Jarrett Lee has played as well as you could expect him to in place of the suspended Jordan Jefferson. Lee has thrown for 444 yards while completing 67.8 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one interception. Spencer Ware (226 rushing yards, 4.2/carry, three TD) and Michael Ford (218 yards, 5.5/carry, four TD) have been a load on the ground. Rueben Randle (12 receptions, 229 yards, two TD) and Odell Beckham (15 receptions, 111 yards) have clearly been Lee’s go-to guys at receiver.

West Virginia

Dana Holgorsen is off to an excellent start in his first year as West Virginia head coach. The Mountaineers have opened 3-0 with a weather-shortened 34-13 victory over Marshall, a 55-12 win against Norfolk State, and a 37-31 triumph at Maryland. They led the Terrapins 27-10 at halftime before having to hang on at the end. The Mountaineers were explosive offensively, putting up 480 total yards, including 388 passing from QB Geno Smith. This defense has clearly taken a step back from last season, though, as WVU allowed 477 total yards to Maryland.

Holgorsen was expected to bring more offense to WVU, and he has certainly delivered thus far. The Mountaineers feature the No. 32 offense in the country at 434.7 total yards/game, and the No. 15 scoring offense at 42.0 points/game. There’s no question the defense wasn’t going to be as good as it was a year ago with only five returning starters. WVU has held their own on this side of the ball thus far, currently sitting at No. 40 in the nation in total defense (316.3 yards/game) and No. 40 in scoring defense (18.7 points/game) as well.

Many predicted Smith to have a breakout season under Holgorsen, and so far so good for the junior quarterback. He has thrown for 1,008 yards on 69.5 percent completions with seven touchdowns and one interception. The Mountaineers have four receivers with double-digit receptions already in Tavon Austin (20 catches, 236 yards, one TD), Stedman Bailey (15, 229, two TD), Ivan McCartney (17, 211, two TD) and Devon Brown (10, 164, one TD). WVU has not found a ground game yet. Their top two backs in Vernard Roberts (36 carries, 112 yards, 3.1/carry, three TD) and Andrew Buie (26, 88, 3.4, one TD) will have a hard time finding much running room against this LSU defense Saturday.

Betting Trends

After a sub-par offensive performance, LSU tends to bounce back. The Tigers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is, however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a cover against the spread.

The Mountaineers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a dog of 3.5-10.0 points. WVU is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. At the same time, the Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.