March Madness Upset Picks

Written by Jack Jones - Google +

The most exciting aspect of March Madness is all of the upsets that take place. When you are making your tournament predictions, you must go through and pick which underdogs you are going to take to upset a favorite. The satisfaction and thrill you get from correctly picking an upset makes this time of year worth while. In this article I’ll go over a few questions pertaining to the #12 through #16 seeds and list a few facts that you can use as guidelines when making your upset picks.

What will be the lowest ranked seed to advance past the round of 64 of the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship?

#8 Seed – 250/1
#9 Seed – 150/1
#10 Seed – 50/1
#11 Seed – 16/1
#12 Seed – 6/1
#13 Seed – 3/1
#14 Seed – 8/5
#15 Seed – 5/2
#16 Seed – 8/1

My Pick: #13 Seed at 3/1 – Considering #1 seeds are 124-0 over the past 26 years since the field expanded to 64 teams, the #16 seeds are out of the question. There have been some scares for #2 seeds the past few years, but the fact of the matter is that #15 seeds are winless in the past nine years (0-36). Don’t wager on a #15 to win. It is likely that a #13 or #14 seed will pull off an upset. Only four times since 1985 have all of the top four seeds in each region made it past the Round of 64.

Last March represented the third straight year, and 8th in the last 10, that a #13 seed won a game when Murray State upset Vanderbilt. I like the upset potential of this year’s #13 seeds in Belmont, Oakland, Princeton and Morehead State. In fact, I picked Belmont (30-4) to beat Wisconsin. I did not have any #14 seeds winning as Indiana State, Bucknell, Wofford and St. Peter’s just simply do not impress me. Plus, you get 3/1 odds on the #13 seed option whereas you only get 8/5 odds on the #14 seed option which means more value for your money.

How Many #15 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship?

1 or More: +225
None: -300

My Pick: None at -300 – Over the last nine years, #15 seeds have combined to go 0-36. That’s the longest drought for #15s since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, so while one may be “due” for a win, I’m simply not willing to play the “due factor”. Hampton is the only 15-seed in the last 13 tournaments to upset a 2-seed, when they topped Iowa State in Boise back in 2001.

How Many #14 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship?

1 or More: EVEN
None: -130

My Pick: None at -130 – As previously stated, none of the 14-seeds stand out this year as potential upset candidates. Indiana State will not get by Syracuse, Bucknell won’t cool off Connecticut, Wofford is unlikely to top BYU, and St. Peter’s stands no chance against Purdue. Of the four, Wofford is certainly the most likely candidate to get past BYU as the Cougars simply have not been the same team since leading rebounder Brandon Davies was dismissed from the team. I just don’t see the nation’s leading scorer in Jimmer Fredette letting his team lose in the opening round. In the end, I don’t see an upset in this seeding group.

How Many #13 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship?

1 or More: -160
None: +130

My Pick: 1 or More at -160 – A 13-seed has won at least one game in 10 of the last 13 years (no wins in 2000, 2004, 2007). That equates to 77% of the time which means laying the -160 is actually pretty good value on this wager. A No. 13 seed has won at least one game in three straight tournaments and eight of the last ten as well. I like the candidates in Oakland and Belmont especially, plus Princeton and Morehead State are no pushovers.

How Many #12 Seeds will advance past the round of 64 of the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship?

2 or More: -140
1 or Less: +110

My Pick: 2 or More at -140 – If you are familiar with the NCAA Tournament, then you will know that many folks look for upsets in the 12/5 match-ups more than any other seeding line. There is evidence to support that upsets happen often in this spot. In fact, in 23 of the last 26 tournaments at least one 12- seed has beaten a 5-seed to advance past the Round of 64. Furthermore, #12s have actually won more games in the Round of 64 and the Round of 32 than No. 11 seeds. The 5-seeds look ripe for the picking this year with the likes of West Virginia, Arizona, Kansas State and Vanderbilt. The candidates to beat them are the UAB/Clemson winner, Memphis, Utah State and Richmond, respectively.

According to the odds, both Utah State and Richmond are just 2-point underdogs in their games and Memphis is a 5.5-point underdog. West Virginia won’t be heavily favored over UAB or Clemson, either. This clearly means that odds makers aren’t giving the 5-seeds much credit. I have actually picked Richmond to beat Vanderbilt and wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the other three 12-seeds to pull off another upset or two.

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