2011 Marshall Football Predictions

Written by Jack Jones

It was a tale of two seasons wrapped into one for the Marshall Thundering Herd last season. They started the year 1-6 through their first seven games, which included a painful 21-24 overtime loss to rival and then-No. 23 West Virginia after blowing a big fourth quarter lead. The Herd rebounded nicely down the stretch, going 4-1 over their final six contests. It was clear that Doc Holliday never lost control of the team in his first year on the job, and it’s a great sign heading into his second season at Marshall in 2011.

Holliday welcomes back 14 starters and 46 lettermen. His biggest goal has to be to get his team to take care of the football. Marshall has been negative in turnover differential each of the past six seasons, giving the ball away 39 times more than their opposition over that span. I’ll be previewing their offense and defense for the 2011 season below, as well as offering a prediction on where the Herd will finish in Conference USA’s East division.

Offense:

Marshall had one of the worst offenses in the country a year ago. The Herd only managed 20.8 points and 314 total yards/game in 2010. With just five returning starters, it’s going to be hard for them to improve upon those numbers. That’s especially the case considering they will have to break in a new starting quarterback. Brian Anderson has departed after throwing for 2,358 yards and 20 touchdowns to 15 interceptions last year. They do have a talented one ready to step up and fill his shoes. Sophomore AJ Graham was Florida’s Mr. Football after throwing for 3,870 yards and 38 touchdowns as a senior in high school. He has 4.65 speed and is clearly the QB of the future here. Graham completed 10-of-12 passes for 95 yards as a freshman last season, and he’ll likely hold off sophomore Eddie Sullivan (6-of-24, 134 yards in 2010) for the starting job this year.

This team welcomes back their top four rushers from last season, but that’s not saying much. Their leading rusher was Martin Ward (345 yards), followed by Andre Booker (264), Tron Martinez (262) and Essray Taliaferro (98). All four return, but Booker moves to receiver. Holliday has brought in three talented true freshman RB’s, including Travon Van who grayshirted last year and impressed in practice. Van is the best of the bunch and will likely get the most carries, but this is going to be a committee approach once again.

At receiver, the Herd return two of their top three receivers in juniors Aaron Dobson and Antavious Wilson. Dobson led with 44 receptions for 689 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Wilson was third with 29 grabs for 342 yards and 5 scores. Senior Troy Evans (21, 225, 3) steps into a starting role this year. They lose TE Lee Smith (38, 358, 3), who was drafted by the New England Patriots in the fifth round. Filling in for him will be junior Jamie Hatten (1 catch last year). The loss of Smith will be felt, but this receiving corps should be able to produce similar numbers to their 2010 totals.

The offensive line will be in the second year of their new system, which should only help improve their numbers. Two starters return from a line that paved the way for just 97 rushing yards/game on 3.4/carry in 2010. They did allow just 13 sacks, but certainly must improve their run blocking. The two they bring back are senior RG CJ Wood and senior LT Ryan Tillman, who both were named to Conference USA’s All-Freshman team back in their rookie seasons. JUCO transfer Colin Munro steps in at right tackle. The Herd also bring in four true freshman, including the highly touted tandem of Jamar Lewter and Sebastian Johnson.

Defense:

Marshall’s defense held up pretty well last season and kept them in most ball games. The Herd yielded just 28.8 points and 386 total yards/game, ranking near the top of the conference in both categories. They allowed only 19.2 points/game during their 4-1 stretch to close out the season. With nine returning starters on defense, this figures to be one of the best stop units in CUSA. Seven of their top eight tacklers are back in 2011.

The defensive line played very well last season, and were a big reason for the solid 139 rushing yards/game and 3.9/carry surrendered. Three starters are back, and seven D-linemen who made at least one start last year (51 career starts) return. Their top playmaker is senior DE Vinny Curry, who earned first-team All-CUSA last season. Curry was their #2 tackler with 94 stops, including 18 for a loss. Senior DT Delvin Johnson (20 tackles, 1 for loss) and sophomore DT James Rouse (19 tackles, 0.5 for loss) hold down the interior. Sophomore DE Trevor Black (23 tackles, 3 for loss) is primed for a big year as Curry will draw the majority of double-teams opposite him. Marshall also welcomes JUCO transfer Terry Franklin, who originally signed at Oklahoma in 2009.

The one concern on this defense is the loss of LB Mario Harvey, who was not only the best player on this team, but also one of the best in the conference. Harvey earned first-team All-CUSA honors in back-to-back seasons and was by far the team’s leading tackler (143, 17.5 for loss) last year. Marshall does bring back five of their top six linebackers, but they have no replacement for Harvey. Their three projected starters have combined for 35 career starts and 285 career tackles. They are senior WLB Kellen Harris (68 tackles, 5 for loss last year), senior MLB Tyson Gale (46, 3), and junior SLB Devin Arrington (64, 4).

The Herd fielded a pretty solid secondary last season, one that allowed 241 passing yards/game on just 56.8% completions. They return all four starters from that unit, making this Marshall’s most experienced secondary in over five years. Senior FS Omar Brown is the biggest stud of the group. He earned first-team All-CUSA honors last season after finishing #3 in tackles (88) to go along with 5 pass break-ups and 3 interceptions. Senior CB Rashad Jackson (37 tackles, 10 passes defensed) and sophomore CB Monterius Lovett (30 tackles, 6 passes defensed) are good ones outside. I expect freshman DJ Hunter, who originally signed with Tennessee in 2008, to take the starting SS spot. It was held by junior Donald Brown (75 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 6 passes defensed) last season.

Conference USA Prediction: 5th Place East Division – Marshall managed to go 4-4 in conference play last season despite being outgained by 58.1 yards/game. It’s hard for me to see them matching that win total in 2011, especially considering they play three of the toughest teams in the conference in Tulsa, Houston and UCF on the road. They only have five home games total this season, making a bowl bid nearly impossible. Their defense should be just as good as it was a year ago with nine returning starters, but the loss of LB Harvey is a big one. Their offense can’t get much worse than it was in 2010, but with only five returning starters it’s not going to be much better, either. I do believe Graham is going to wind up having a very successful career here at QB, though he’s still raw and unproven. The good thing is that the East division is wide open after Southern Miss and UCF, so I could see this team finishing as high as third. Marshall’s schedule says otherwise, though.

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